rip

dotdotdots coming alive once ETH breaks ATH again?

hats off to the time capitulation preachers from a few months back, probably one of the few accurate things on twitter.

we are so back

TBC 2024?

Been following @PFPAsia since 65 followers, it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a #pfp collection with previews of this quality. Looking forward to seeing what @nvuwa has in store for us when the project mints.

The honest answer is that a reunification of the mainland and Taiwan (peaceful or not) would mean the US losing its main leverage with China, and would be a breach of the "first island chain" encirclement strategy they have going on around China. It's not about "democracy" or principles like "self-determination", this is propaganda for people who don't understand the first thing about geopolitics. It's all about American power. And this is why even if there was a realistic prospect of a peaceful reunification with a credible guarantee Taiwan would conserve its liberal democratic system afterwards, the US would oppose it tooth and nails just as hard. Heck even if China themselves were to suddenly adopt the American system wholesale, the US would still oppose reunification, 100% guaranteed. It simply has nothing to do with values or principles. But everything to do with power. And the best proof of this is Israel. If the US cared about principles over power, they'd never let Israel commit this atrocious massacre in Gaza. It just goes against all the principles they claim to hold dear. But here too it's not about values or principles, but very much about power. And their calculation must be something along the lines of "if Israel manages to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza [which seems to be the plan] then we have ourselves a bigger unsinkable aircraft carrier in the region". Which is of course extremely short sighted - in both cases - because this rests on the assumption that a US-led hegemonic world order is sustainable when it isn't. So by doing so both wrt China and Israel, the US isn't as much cementing its power as threatening it. The more you insist on living in a reality that just cannot be, the hardest actual reality will come back to bite you. The smart thing to do would be to acknowledge that the world has changed, that it is multipolar, and that instead of denying this reality it'd be much more constructive to adapt to it and help shape this new world in a way that works for all (including China and the Palestinians).

Every year or so I come back to this, and I appreciate it more each watch youtu.be/e9dZQelULDk

US vetoes UN Security Council action on Israel, Gaza reuters.com/world/us-vetoes-…

"The Global South" feels like such a derogatory term, may as well just say "the poors"

BREAKING: Israel has used white phosphorus in military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, putting civilians at risk of serious and long-term injuries. White phosphorus causes excruciating burns and can set homes afire. Its use in populated areas is unlawful. trib.al/FscpF3H

future of social networking

I don’t understand why people peddling US treasury shorts are so fixated on the lack of demand. Does anyone really think the Fed won’t swing from QT to QE the moment things look to be getting too hairy?

whats going on with #ETH gas, first time it's been this high without some nft mint

mass adoption any day now

chin up, at least it wasn't to get a whitelist for a straight up rug that failed to mint out

shocker, you’re saying the sophisticated spy balloon disguised as a weather balloon wasn’t actually the worlds least stealthy way to collect info that you could’ve just gotten off google earth?

An interesting feature that seems exclusive to crypto is the discussion of time capitulation. I'm not sure if it speaks more to the lack of patience in a nascent industry, or is a representation that ultimately most crypto investors feel the industry is built on a house of cards.

Friendtech (FT) isn't the next OF. It's another ponzi shitcoin and you're the exit liquidity into whoever is shilling their bag. People shilling it are grifting, and will walk away clean while you end up poorer and reading a dead chat. The most important reason it fails in the long term is incentive alignment. On OF you need to maintain your subscriber base of recurring revenue. On FT (as it has been done dozens of times over the last 2 years in various crypto ponzis) the money is frontloaded, so once the bulk of the money has been paid, most creators have little incentive to stick around. This is similar to NFTs. FT has two parts - a bonding curve ponzi and a group chat. Like every ponzi before it, a thin veneer of purported value (in this case the group chat) is used to pump a ponzi (the argument that appeals to left-curvers), and then right-curvers get in (because they are first to a ponzi), and now all bagholders have an interest in shilling their bag. Ultimately you pay large transfer taxes (10% each way) for playing the ponzi. It makes sense to play the ponzi if you are one of the first. Any time after is probably -EV as the date of the turkey's death is unknown. The airdrop makes the platform heavily sybiled, so usage stats are now fugazi. Unlike NFTs, bonding curves have immediate sell value, so once it looks like a creator on FT has topped, the game theory is for everyone to immediately cash out and not be last. Creators have reason to create elsewhere where they will be paid, and the payment on FT is mostly frontloaded, so content will mostly dry up. Yes this may mean a rotation of grifter celebrities will show up, but this isn't bullish for anyone but their own bag. --- Q&A round: "Doesn't the group chat of a celebrity have value?" Yes it does, provided they use it. The celebrity is also not incentivized to use it over time, so at some point they mostly drop off. Look how active Irene is in her SOCOL paid group (hint: she's not). Most creators will end up in that situation. "imagine buying Hsaka shares 4 years ago?" This is a fantasy based on being able to receive their ad revenue or other dividend. If that were the case then it's a different ball game. Here you are not buying a "share" of anything, you are playing a pure ponzi, similar to $BALD. Unlike selling shares of yield-bearing products, or subscribing to someone on OF, here no one has incentive to be the last buyer. "Celebrities can use this as a way to give out lifetime access, etc." Yes, or they can just sell this access directly and receive 100% of the revenue. The benefit of the latter is stability. Friendtech shares are hot now, but once they go cold like NFTs, people have a different outlook about the revenue they could receive and therefore the value of the shares. "GCR predicted social tokens so therefore this is the truth" GCR made a prediction during a time of peak over-financialization. But we are now in a bear market which is the opposite. In this setting it is difficult to see how social tokens can do well as it requires demand from people that specifically want to bet on (a person), and then mechanics that make this stable. Relatively speaking, the total market cap for this is very small compared to say, all NFTs, and the timeline is going crazy over 100 shares. Additionally this is confirmation-seeking bias as for example, this prediction was not used to predict the success of say, SOCOL (because well, it never got big.) It is only being used to predict something that is already successful (has traction), and so this is vapid evidence. "I'll give my airdrop to you if you stan me" They can just buy the shares with alts. A self-described 'profit maxi' chose not to. Why? Buddy, you are the exit liquidity. --- At the end of the day, FT shares can go higher, even a heck of a lot higher. Maybe the token goes apeshit once Logan Paul or Gary V joins. Again like NFTs there is almost no limit to people's idiocy and degeneracy. During that peak, there was a lot of delusional views about how this is a massively disruptive, world changing technology. In reality it is just yet another ponzi in the larger caravan of ponzis we've had over the last few years beginning with the ICO era and continuing into defi, nfts, play-to-earn and so on. So this could ride, hell this could ride a lot. But just remember you are playing a ponzi with a clock. It's actually kind of sad to see crypto devolve to this, now people are playing musical chairs with 200 people for 2 eth, and shooting their last $10k into knifefight PVP on-chain ponzis, because well... that's all they have. Anyways, when the tide comes up, like it's done many times before, insiders leave with a bag and laugh at you. Don't make the same mistake thinking you can beat a 20% transfer tax ponzi (10% each way). If you can, great - you don't need my advice. On average, you can't. If you are reading this, you're not an insider, you haven't joined, and your reason for entering is to make money, be careful.

geopolitics is everything. could you imagine if it was China trying to dump radioactive wastewater into the ocean? every mfer in politics would be lining up to "strongly condemn" it regardless of how many agencies stated it was safe instead, crickets