Does it make sense to pay-up for opportunities in hot markets?
What about when most investors seem to think opportunities are overpriced?
In 2014, Catherine Turco and Ezra Zuckerman published a fantastic retrospective on a private equity bubble and how investor behavior shifted.
Importantly, they found that contrary to popular belief, a bubble is not necessarily formed when investors become irrational about company valuations.
Bubbles may also form as a result of sheer market momentum, even when participants recognise overvaluation, due to structural incentives.
They break behavior down into two camps:
Sitting ("on the sidelines") - Investors who recognised the bubble and chose not to invest.
Dancing ("until the music stops") - Investors who recognised the bubble tried to time their exit.
Even when there was widespread investor dissent about valuations, with 16 of 19 recognising a bubble, 9 of those 16 chose to dance.
There are three primary reasons for this:
1) Because performance is measured on a relative basis, if everybody else keeps dancing and does well, while you sit out, you look bad. If you all dance and it collapses, at least you fail together.
2) Because raising a fund requires deploying the previous fund, it is painful for a firm to sit out of the market for any length of time.
3) There's no short-selling, auctions are blind, low bids get lost, and failures are ignored. The market is always seen as optimistic, even when investors are not.
This sustained dancing ultimately drove valuations to greater and greater heights, as investors were all implicitly signalling that they believed the market through their participation.
Predictably, it did not end well.
When the authors re-interviewed the 19 investors 5 years later, all but one stated that dancing had been the wrong choice; the best strategy would have been to sit out of the market and remain disciplined.
Contrary to my principles and beliefs, momentum-driven investing focused multiple expansion will make you more money in VC than idiosyncratic, non-consensus investing (at least in this market)