Associate Professor of Finance, @NYUStern. Finance/Real Estate/Urban newsletter: arpitrage.substack.com.
Joined September 2015
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Feb 2
I'm teaching a new course at Stern on AI in Finance and opening it up!
Syllabus/slides on Github: github.com/arpitrage/ai-in-f…
Weekly summaries on Substack
arpitrage.substack.com/p/1-t…
First post is on Amdahl's Law, Jevons' Paradox, and why finance was slow to learn the bitter lesson
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I actually think a more evenly distributed wealth distribution would result in more “pro business” political influence because a larger section of voters views it in their interest
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Housing policies for instance prioritizes low property taxes and regulatory constraints on building exactly because homeownership is widespread; if it was all owned by a few billionaire real estate owners they’d have a much harder time making that happen
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So leftists should favor the concentration of wealth in a few hands which is less likely to shift an entire democratic system, and conservatives should want “ownership society” outcomes with mass ownership of financial claims
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When my agent spins up another agent
In 2013, a Chinese businessman, Tan Youhui, hired a hitman to "take out" his competitor for $282,000. But the hitman hired another man to do the job, offering $141,000. That man then hired another hitman, who hired another hitman, who hired another hitman.
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An interesting model fusion service
Introducing the Fusion API, the smartest compound model in the market.
Fusion achieves Fable-level intelligence at half the price.
How it works 👇
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We are plausibly heading to a world with with tiered access to foundational models; as a function of country willingness to sign trade deals etc
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FIFA:
World Cup ticket prices don't look like private valuations. They look like common-value auctions: everyone watching everyone else's willingness to pay
opaque prices
FOMO
social media turning attendance into status
US being rich, huge, and full of diasporas
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Some of the most economically damaging farmland preservation requirements prevent the development of great cities here
Jun 13
Given how rare large swaths of flat land are to come by on the California Coast and how dire the state is in need of housing its surprising to me that the Salinas Valley hasn't been developed more its only got 390K people!
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Jun 13
Where are we on self-driving motorcycles? Would much lower mortality risk unlock these for more people?
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Jun 13
A romantic comedy between an AI lab employee who marries his boss to keep access to Fable, but then she visits his compute rich family and realizes he’s not rate limited after all
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Jun 13
Americans avoid being in the permanent underclass because any citizen can earn a job by copy pasting Fable 5 prompts and output to foreigners
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Jun 13
Feel bad for all the AI companies whose models are apparently not good enough to trigger national security crises
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Jun 13
1) What
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Jun 12
I guess you have to sell your other space stocks to buy SpaceX?
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Arpit Gupta retweeted
Jun 12
Many New Yorkers agree the city needs more housing. Where to put it? Yonah Freemark says libraries, schools, fire stations and other public facilities are ripe locations for thousands of units. vitalcitynyc.org/nyc-joint-d…
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Arpit Gupta retweeted
Jun 12
New York can't compete with San Francisco as a home to corporate AI giants — but it can specialize in building AI for law, medicine and other regulated industries. @arpitrage lays out what he sees as the path to jobs and profits. vitalcitynyc.org/ai-economic…
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Jun 12
One takeaway — "wrapper" AI firms which just look at a subset of public data are going to get crushed by better foundational model.
Only hope to avoid the Bitter Solution is for AI Application firms to train on proprietary data.
Jun 12
Medicine discovers the bitter lesson: frontier LLMs (here GPT 5.2, Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1) outperform specialized "clinical AI" (e.g. OpenEvidence) in a blind test.
Even funnier that hospital IT are more likely to approve the *specialized* versions despite them being worse.
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Arpit Gupta retweeted
Jun 12
Medicine discovers the bitter lesson: frontier LLMs (here GPT 5.2, Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1) outperform specialized "clinical AI" (e.g. OpenEvidence) in a blind test.
Even funnier that hospital IT are more likely to approve the *specialized* versions despite them being worse.
Jun 12
For medical information, general AI frontier models (Google, OpenAI, Anthropic) outperformed specialized @EvidenceOpen and @UpToDate as assessed by 12 US clinicians, randomized and blinded to which model and extensive testing/benchmarks. This was not anticipated. @NatureMedicine
nature.com/articles/s41591-0…
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Jun 12
Interesting article on mentoring junior faculty by Jesse Shapiro. I was interested in this discussion of a reading lab "Amazon" style format they try at HBS.
Sadly no one reads anymore, so we need to set aside time to do it collectively.
Jun 12
hbsp.harvard.edu/inspiring-m… These mentoring sessions by Jesse are among my favorite perks of joining HBS. He wrote an article about them here and I imagine junior faculty elsewhere may benefit from this kind of mentoring as well.
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