Senior editor, Carnegie Middle East Center. Author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster 2010).

Joined January 2011
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In 1984, I shot a militiaman. Story at the Lebanese Without Frontiers substack, to which I highly recommend you subscribe. It's full of fascinating material aimed at creating a collective Lebanese memory through personal recollection (and it's free): lebanesewithoutfrontiers.sub…
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A French commune, Langrune-sur-Mer, demands the cancellation of a visit by Secretary of Warmongers Hegseth, viewing him as someone who holds "views and values contrary to democracy, human rights, peace, and Europe." This led Pinhead Pete to cancel his event there. theguardian.com/world/2026/j…
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Michael Young retweeted
This article by @mounir_rabih of a few days ago has many interesting tidbits. It claims that the ambiguities in the tripartite Washington framework over Lebanon have led to a situation in which the parties are seeking to clarify aspects of it. This would allegedly involve an end to Hezbollah military operations, followed by an end to Israeli military operations, and in a subsequent phase an Israeli withdrawal and deployment of the Lebanese army in so-called pilot zones. Therefore agreement reached in Washington did not impose any conditions on Israel. Reportedly, Simon Karam, Lebanese delegation head, considered withdrawing from the session because of the ambiguities in the framework agreement and the absence of an Israeli pullout, but was then persuaded to sign the agreement after contacts among the sides. True? Untrue? But two things come to mind. Even if the agreement is clarified informally, unless there is a document clearly outlining conditions Israel must implement on withdrawals and a return of the displaced, the agreement won’t mean much. Second, as much as the Lebanese would like to separate the Lebanon and Iran tracks, if a global ceasefire comes into effect after today, thanks to the U.S.-Iran deal, the Lebanese government won’t benefit, because Iranian conditions will be perceived as the cause of the ceasefire. Which means there will be no incentive for Hezbollah to facilitate the deployment of the army to these so-called pilot areas in order to stop the Israeli onslaught. Therefore, Israel will have a perfect excuse to pursue its operations, which today appear focused on reaching Jabal Ali Tahrir, above Nabatiyyeh, where Hezbollah has reportedly created a tunnel complex. almodon.com/politics/2026/06…
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I read this once, twice, three times. Has anyone informed Rob that Israel has occupied Lebanese territory since 2024, therefore Hezbollah isn’t really in need of the Shebaa Farms excuse anymore. There are plenty of other “planks” to choose from, and Israel has made it possible.
Major development: A claim by #Damascus that Shebaa Farms is really #Syrian territory -- and therefore an agenda item to be resolved between #Israel and #Syria -- would undermine a key plank of #Hezbollah's "resistance" argument that it is defending #Lebanese territory from #Israeli occupation. This is the sort of tangible contribution #Syria can make to #MiddleEast peacemaking, not sending troops into Lebanon to ignite sectarian tensions and give Hezbollah a new lease on life.
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This is why Trump is so keen for a deal with Iran: He’s lost the bedrock support he had enjoyed from blue-collar white voters on the economy, and no matter how much Netanyahu and his U.S. facilitators try, they won’t be able to prolong the war much longer: nytimes.com/2026/06/13/us/po…
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Michael Young retweeted
يرفض الرئيس أحمد الشرع أي انخراط عسكري سوري في لبنان أو البقاع انطلاقاً من قناعة بأن مصلحة سوريا اليوم تكمن في حماية الاستقرار الداخلي وتركيز الجهود على الاقتصاد وإعادة الإعمار، لا الانجرار إلى صراعات إقليمية جديدة. ودمشق ترى أن أي مواجهة مذهبية أو أمنية في لبنان ستنعكس مباشرة على الداخل السوري وتبدد المكاسب التي تحققت خلال العام والنصف الأخيرة. كما أن الولايات المتحدة لم تقدم حتى الآن أي ثمن سياسي أو اقتصادي مقنع، سواء في ملف العقوبات أو الترتيبات الأمنية في الجنوب السوري أو الانسحاب الإسرائيلي. هذا الموقف لا يعكس قراراً سورياً منفرداً فقط، بل يحظى بدعم وتفهم تركي وقطري وسعودي يفضل تحييد سوريا عن التوترات الإقليمية وتحويلها إلى مركز عبور للطاقة والتجارة والنقل بدلاً من إعادة زجها في ساحات المواجهة. ومن المتوقع أن يزداد ترسخ هذا التوجه مع اقتراب اللقاء المرتقب بين ترامب وأردوغان وقمة الناتو.
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Michael Young retweeted
‼️ Notable: Sharaa acknowledged that the status of Shebaa Farms remains disputed btw Lebanon & Syria . The Assad regime never clearly said that, as Hezbollah used the Farms as a justification for retaining its weapons after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.

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Michael Young retweeted
Why should we believe anything she says? The last time she interacted with Lebanon, it was to sign shells that the Israelis were about to fire into the country with the words "finish them." theguardian.com/us-news/arti…
This needs to be said loud and clear. Israel is not attacking Lebanon. They are targeting Hezbollah. An Iranian funded terror proxy that has struck Israel 2,000 times since the April ceasefire. Israel has every right to defend itself. Don’t fall for the Iranian regime’s distraction.
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The UAE and U.S. have denied a transfer, but Vance’s remarks—“that the potential deal is structured to ensure that economic benefits would flow to Tehran if it meets its obligations”—suggests something could be taking place behind the scenes to facilitate a U.S-Iran deal: reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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RT @ClareDalyIRL: The jaws of a carefully set trap are closing on @kajakallas. Fitting somehow if it's this, the first good thing she's a…
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Qatar may have tried to cut a deal with Iran at the start of the war to protect its Ras Laffan gas facility by ceasing production there, sending global prices upward and putting pressure on the global economy, in exchange for Iran not targeting Ras Laffan: washingtonpost.com/world/202…
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Michael Young retweeted
Erdogan's statement yesterday is one among a number of fresh examples of how we're moving into a new balance-of-power relationship in the Levant and wider Middle East—one today focused on containing Israel, seen as a destabilizing regional revisionist power. This must shape our analytical framework for much of what is going on, including Lebanon-Israel negotiations, Turkish policy toward Lebanon and Syria, and relations between countries in the region and the United States.
تصريحات الرئيس أردوغان تأتي في سياق التطورات الإقليمية الحالية، وتتجاوز التضامن السياسي التقليدي مع لبنان وسوريا، وتحمل رسائل استراتيجية أساسية: أولاً، تحاول أنقرة تثبيت معادلة جديدة مفادها أن أمن تركيا يبدأ من استقرار المشرق العربي، وأن استمرار العمليات العسكرية الإسرائيلية في سوريا ولبنان هو عامل يؤثر مباشرة في الأمن القومي التركي، خصوصاً مع اقتراب النشاط العسكري الإسرائيلي من مناطق النفوذ والمصالح التركية داخل سوريا. ثانياً، تعكس التصريحات قلقاً تركياً متزايداً من سعي إسرائيل إلى فرض وقائع أمنية وسياسية جديدة في سوريا وجنوب لبنان وشرق المتوسط، بما قد يؤدي إلى تقليص هامش الحركة التركي أو خلق ترتيبات إقليمية لا تأخذ المصالح التركية بالحسبان. لذلك جاء الربط بين بيروت ودمشق وشرق المتوسط في خطاب واحد. ثالثاً، تشكل التصريحات رسالة ردع سياسية موجهة إلى إسرائيل وإلى القوى الغربية قبيل قمة الناتو، مفادها أن تركيا لن تقبل بتحول سوريا إلى ساحة مفتوحة للعمليات الإسرائيلية أو بإعادة رسم موازين القوى الإقليمية بصورة أحادية، وأن أنقرة ترى نفسها طرفاً رئيسياً في أي ترتيبات أمنية تخص المشرق وشرق المتوسط. أما عبارة "أمن تركيا يبدأ من بيروت والشام" فهي تحمل دلالة استراتيجية أكثر من كونها شعاراً سياسياً، إذ تعكس قناعة تركية بأن أي انهيار أمني واسع في لبنان أو سوريا سيؤدي إلى تداعيات مباشرة على تركيا عبر ملفات الحدود، واللاجئين، والتنظيمات المسلحة، وخطوط التجارة والطاقة، وبالتالي فإن حماية الاستقرار في هاتين الساحتين باتت جزءاً من مفهوم الأمن القومي التركي نفسه.
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Michael Young retweeted
The head of a major DC think tank that has the ear of the president is effectively calling for assassination of an American journalist whose views he doesn’t like. This is where we are now.
Ali Khamenei is gone. Yahya Sinwar is gone. Hassan Nasrallah is gone. Now the most public advocate for the elimination of Israel may be Peter Beinart. We’ll see how Mojtaba Khamenei and Erdogan evolve. For now, Peter is out front. Mazal Tov.
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Michael Young retweeted
People should be ashamed to work at FDD.
Ali Khamenei is gone. Yahya Sinwar is gone. Hassan Nasrallah is gone. Now the most public advocate for the elimination of Israel may be Peter Beinart. We’ll see how Mojtaba Khamenei and Erdogan evolve. For now, Peter is out front. Mazal Tov.
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Michael Young retweeted
A few years ago, historian Elizabeth Thompson wrote an excellent book on how France and Britain undermined an independent Syria in 1920, which had just approved a relatively liberal constitution. I spoke to her for Diwan: carnegieendowment.org/middle…
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RT @Rob_Malley: If they truly believe this, it has all the hallmarks of someone despairing at not getting his way, flailing, lashing out, m…
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Michael Young retweeted
Israel is manufacturing consent to bomb civilian areas in Lebanon through claims that Hezbollah operates from them. The displacement order for Tyre’s Christian quarter came just a week after Israel accused Hezbollah of operating there. Following the allegation, the Lebanese Army conducted patrols and “didn’t find anything suspicious,” a security source told us. “They are targeting every village, every city, everywhere. They are striking areas regardless of whether Hezbollah is actually present.” It also shows Israel’s complete disregard for the Lebanese Army, the very force that the international community says should be empowered and deployed instead of Hezbollah. thenationalnews.com/news/men…?
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