Author w/Hussein Agha, TOMORROW IS YESTERDAY: LIFE, DEATH, & THE PURSUIT OF PEACE IN ISRAEL-PALESTINE. Pdt Emeritus & Mideast Pg Dir @CrisisGroup. Yale Lecturer

Joined October 2011
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From @tparsi Substack: « After decades of failed wars, trillions of dollars squandered, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and America’s global standing diminished, [the warmongers] increasingly rely on intimidation rather than persuasion. They will continue to attack me, my colleagues, and others who challenge their thirst for war. And who knows, they may even succeed in deporting me. But good luck deporting an idea whose time has come. The era of endless war is ending, and no amount of censorship, cancellation, or political intimidation will stop the growing demand for a foreign policy rooted in restraint, diplomacy, and common sense. » open.substack.com/pub/tritap…

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💬 «C'est une guerre qui est un échec quoi qu'il arrive» @Rob_Malley, ex conseiller pour le Moyen-Orient de Clinton et Obama, envoyé spécial Iran du président Biden, actuellement directeur du programme Moyen-Orient à @CrisisGroup, était l'invité de @RFI rfi.my/Cmhl
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לפני שכל מיני גורמים יספרו לנו על ההישגים הנפלאים של ההסכם המתגבש, ראוי לזכור כמה עובדות בסיסיות: א. המלחמה שהחלה ב־28 בפברואר לא נועדה להביא להסכם על דילול מלאי האורניום של איראן. מטרתה המוצהרת הייתה להביא לקריסת המשטר האיראני. ישראל לא חיסלה, לראשונה בתולדותיה, מנהיג של מדינה ריבונית כדי להגיע בסופו של דבר להסכם גרעין משופר. ב. בשורה התחתונה, ואיך שלא נסובב זאת, המשטר באיראן צפוי לצאת מההסכם הזה מחוזק – כלכלית, מדינית ואזורית. די להביט בהתקרבות הגוברת בין איראן לבין מדינות המפרץ, ובראשן איחוד האמירויות, כדי להבין שהמשטר בטהרן רחוק מאוד מבידוד. ג. חשוב לזכור שרוב ה"וויתורים" האיראניים המוצגים כיום כבר היו על השולחן בפגישה בג'נבה לפני המלחמה, כאשר שר החוץ האיראני עבאס עראקצ'י הציג אותם בפני סטיב ויטקוף. איראן לא מוכנה לדון בהגבלת תוכנית הטילים שלה, לא בתמיכתה בשלוחותיה האזוריות ולא במרכיבי הכוח האחרים שלה. בפועל, לא נותרה ברירה אלא להתמקד בסוגיית הגרעין בלבד, מתוך ההבנה שעדיף הסכם שמרחיק את איראן מפצצה בטווח הקרוב, גם אם הוא מחזק את המשטר, מאשר המשך לחץ שעלול לדחוף את טהרן להחלטה לרוץ לנשק גרעיני. ד. ההסכם הוא תוצאה ישירה של הכישלון האסטרטגי של המערכה. לאחר חודשים של לחימה, הממשל האמריקני נותר ללא פתרון לסוגיית מצרי הורמוז וללא יכולת לכפות על איראן ויתור על מלאי האורניום המועשר שבידיה. ההישגים המבצעיים המרשימים של המערכה נבלעים בתוך אותו כישלון אסטרטגי רחב יותר. ה. חמור מכך, עצם קיומו של הסכם עקרונות והקלות כלכליות אינו מבטיח כלל שיושג הסכם גרעין סופי. לא ברור אם לארצות הברית יהיה בעתיד הרצון לחזור לאיום צבאי, כאשר כבר כיום היא אינה מגלה נכונות לכך. במבט קדימה, ספק גדול אם ממשלים עתידיים יהיו מוכנים לחזור להרפתקה מהסוג הזה. ו. נכון לעכשיו, שום דבר עדיין לא סגור עד שהכול ייחתם, וטראמפ עוד עשוי לשנות כיוון. אולם גם אם יעשה זאת, קשה לראות אילו חלופות טובות יותר עומדות בפניו. במצב הנוכחי, ההסכם נראה כהמחשה של הפער שבין הצלחות טקטיות ומבצעיות לבין כישלון אסטרטגי. ומי שמביט על התוצאה הכוללת מתקשה להתעלם מהשאלה מי באמת יצא כשידו על העליונה.
מהר האיראנית: "פרטים חדשים על טיוטת ההסכם בת 14 הנקודות בין איראן לארה"ב: ההסכם כולל את התחייבות ארה"ב להסיר סנקציות, להסיג את כוחותיה מסביב לאיראן, להסיר את המצור הימי, לפתוח מחדש את מיצר הורמוז, להסיר את סנקציות הנפט ולשחרר כספים איראניים מוקפאים. ארה"ב נדרשת להציג תוכנית לשיקום כלכלת איראן, בעוד שהמשא ומתן הסופי בין שתי המדינות צריך להיות בנושאים גרעיניים וכלכליים, מבלי לדון בתוכנית הטילים של איראן. טיוטה זו צריכה לעבור גיבוש סופי במוסדות הרלוונטיים".
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Robert Malley retweeted
Iran agreed to all that, did they?
BREAKING: Netanyahu's office said Israel isn't part of the US deal with Iran, but Trump told Bibi it includes "removal of enriched material, dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limiting missile production, and ending Iran's support for its terrorist proxies in the region."
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Robert Malley retweeted
This guy is real life Sisyphus
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Yes he’s said it before, and yes it’s Groundhog Day But this is one very very sick and dangerous groundhog ..
Jun 11
Trump threatens to seize Kharg island as U.S. strikes continue axios.com/2026/06/11/trump-i…
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If they truly believe this, it has all the hallmarks of someone despairing at not getting his way, flailing, lashing out, mistaking military escalation for leverage, only to discover yet again that pressure won’t alter Iran’s stance ...
Jun 10
Sources said one option Trump is considering is launching an operation that is big in scale but short in duration, with the aim of pressing Iran to change its position in the negotiations.
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Robert Malley retweeted
Trump breaking new ground doing Biden-style Barak Ravid "fuming president" impotence bits directed at his ally AND his adversary
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Returning back to war? From Tehran's perspective, the United States and Israel are pursuing a coordinated strategy aimed at weakening both Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance. This perception, combined with President Trump's continued insistence that no meaningful economic relief will be granted to Iran, reinforces the Iranian leadership's belief that it must take action rather than remain passive. This dynamic is closely linked to a simple reality: as long as there is no agreement between Washington and Tehran, spoilers on all sides will continue to drive escalation. The absence of an agreement means there is no sustainable status quo to preserve. Given the profound gaps between the Iranian and American positions on key issues, including uranium enrichment and the future of regional proxy networks, the potential for escalation can only be contained for so long. If President Trump genuinely seeks a deal with Iran, he will need to create diplomatic space for negotiations. That would require pressuring Israel to halt its military operations in Lebanon and approving at least limited economic relief during the initial phase of negotiations. Without such steps, the likelihood of dangerous escalation remains significantly higher than the prospects for a negotiated settlement. Above all, it is increasingly clear that Iran is far from being deterred. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. After 39 days of conflict, Tehran is behaving as though it emerged from the confrontation in a stronger strategic position. Rather than projecting caution or restraint, Iranian leaders continue to signal confidence, emphasizing their resilience, their ability to absorb pressure, and their determination to maintain their regional posture. Whether this perception reflects reality is almost beside the point. What matters is that Iran does not appear to view itself as a defeated or intimidated actor. As long as Tehran believes it can withstand military, economic, and political pressure, the prospects for coercing major concessions through pressure alone remain limited. This reality increases the risk of further escalation and complicates efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement. The coming hours are likely to be critical in determining whether the current escalation can be contained. With tensions running high and all sides seeking to shape perceptions of deterrence and resolve, the risk of miscalculation remains significant. Decisions made in the immediate future both in Tehran and Washington / Jerusalem, as well as by regional actors, could determine whether the crisis moves toward de-escalation or enters a far more dangerous phase. #IranWar‌
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Robert Malley retweeted
Happening now: Robert Malley, a former U.S. special envoy for Iran and lead negotiator on the 2015 nuclear deal, joins FP Live to discuss the negotiations, the regime, and the choices that Washington now faces. Watch here: foreignpolicy.com/live/rober…
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This week’s @CrisisGroup take on the US/Israeli war with Iran: “It has been one more week in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and the week has yet again ended in confusion… Trump’s erratic actions and rhetoric make clear that he is torn, eager to end an economically costly and politically unpopular war, yet still trying to wiggle out of what could be politically painful concessions on his part (most notably anything that smacks of economic benefits for Iran), and hopeful that additional pressure on Iran will yield additional concessions on theirs. Notwithstanding a pervasive sense that the U.S. is closer to reaching a deal than at any point in the past three months, Trump could still be persuaded by Netanyahu and domestic hawks that any deal that involves such economic benefits, or defers “decisive” action on Iran’s nuclear program would amount to surrender. Should this happen, he would return to the choice he avoided on 19 May, when he deferred strikes that he said were planned at the request of Gulf countries. He could either resume the air war, or maintain the blockade, or both – and bank on Iran’s economy cracking before the global economy does. In none of these scenarios is he likely to succeed, as the Iranian regime repeatedly has demonstrated that it believes time to be on its side, and that it is willing to absorb costs, however painful, rather than give in to U.S. pressure.” crisisgroup.org/bnt/middle-e…
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The @OnesandToozePod is always hugely informative but this episode, with @adam_tooze analysis of the economic devastation caused by the US/Israeli war on Iran & the possible economic dimension of any US-Iran deal, is a must-listen podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Robert Malley retweeted
The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is a contentious element in negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and an issue of significant interest to countries around the world. Get to grips with its role in the conflict so far with our new visual explainer. crisisgroup.org/visual-expla…
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This makes good sense. Importantly, it would allow Trump to describe what in effect is the exit ramp he needs as the victory lap he craves. If that's what it takes...
There's going to be ambiguity in whatever "deal" comes together that allows the strait to reopen. -Trump will frame this is as a nuclear deal--even though it is very unlikely that Iran has agreed to anything up-front (agreement to address in principle during subsequent rounds of negotiations is very different). -Iran will contend that it is fully in control of the strait and that a "new status quo" is now in effect--even though it is very likely Iran has agreed to allow traffic to resume as a pre-condition for the US lowering its blockade and de-escalating in general. -Trump will claim that no money is being paid--even though it is very likely that Qatar has agreed to release some frozen funds ($6 billion, perhaps more), while the lowering of the US blockade will allow Iran to resume oil exports, a key source of revenue for the government. Both sides need to claim victory. And it appears possible that both sides have realized this and are baking it into the agreement now currently being finalized.
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Robert Malley retweeted
Saudi will smile and ignore this ridiculous statement. Cannot take it seriously.
Trump said he is not sure the U.S. should sign a deal to end the war with Iran if Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries don't agree join the Abraham Accords. "They owe it to us", he said
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As @citrinowicz puts it, the idea of linking an Iran deal to normalization with Israel “is impractical, detached from reality, and so disconnected from the actual dynamics of the Middle East that it raises serious doubts about whether this administration truly understands the region at all.”
Trump is trying, as hard as he can, to manufacture a “victory image.” If Iran will not give him one, then perhaps the Gulf states will, allowing him to justify what increasingly looks like a deeply troubled approach toward Tehran. The problem is that this futile insistence is damaging U.S. relations with the Gulf states and, paradoxically, pushing them toward their own accommodation with Iran. Needless to say, there is virtually no chance this idea will materialize. But Washington’s persistence is steadily eroding trust with Riyadh at a moment when the Saudi leadership is already deeply concerned about renewed regional escalation. It is impractical, detached from reality, and so disconnected from the actual dynamics of the Middle East that it raises serious doubts about whether this administration truly understands the region at all. #IranWar‌ #Iran
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Robert Malley retweeted
Actually, Van Hollen specifically says: "Democrats should pursue a last-gasp effort to salvage a two-state solution. If that effort fails, the US will have to consider other options to secure equal political and legal rights for all" - boldly hinting at one state with equality.
Senator Van Hollen wants to put the United States back in the peace process business for a 2-state solution that does not exist.
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