The narrative for Crypto underperformance that seems to make rounds every few months is extremely misleading IMHO
a) liquidity expansion overall from 2023 has been relatively mid, there was a slight ramp from 2023 to 2024, then a very small ramp early 2025, but overall nothing like previous "cycles" -
x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status…
b) "stocks" are not doing great, the industries benefiting from a the 6 trillion dollar CAPEX injection are doing great
- Most broadly are suffering from the same lack of liquidity expansion. Most economically sensitive sectors topped relative to SPY around Oct/Nov 2025 (like crypto)
-Mag7/SPY basically mirroring
$BTC performance topping a month after
$BTC. Isolating underperformers like
$MSFT, you can see the relationship even clearer
- Main $ flowing = the 6trillion CAPEX spend -> the companies that benefit have had huge ramp in earnings (drive up stock price; not hard to understand)
- It's so narrow that the "AI beneficiaries" are estimated to account for nearly 50% of the entire FY2026 EPS growth for the S&P500 -
x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/20…
TLDR; Underperformance isn't crypto specific - The liquidity environment has been mid for years, most industries are also lagging/"stocks" have not been doing that great overall, main source of $ in the entire economy (GS estimated to be 50% of S&P EPS for FY26) is going to companies building out AI infra ... there's only "so much money in the system" rn so it's not shocking money has piled into those names driving extremely narrow outperformance.
This feels worse than any of the prior bear markets tbh