RT @dlacalle_IA: Year-over-year change in investor margin debt.

Oil prices are falling sharply, but you'll want to resist the urge to chase this move lower. There's lots of unknowns and many parties who want this peace deal to fail. So a risk premium has to stay. I think we stay in a $80-90 range for a little while... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

WTI crude oil flirting with the $70s at the open

“The Deal with Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all!” President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

"The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

RT @dlacalle_IA: It is probably time to buy more gold and silver as geopolitical risk falls, political spending remains, and money supply g…

Analysts now expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 24% annually over the next five years. That's double the average since 1985 and a record high. 🔒 Members-Only quicktak.es/mr9y

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut Wednesday could mark a historic pivot from easing to tightening bias as inflation risks outweigh unemployment concerns. 🟢 Open quicktak.es/kks6

I am in the camp that believes a deal with Iran will get done. And when it does, oil will drop, interest rates will follow, and a real peace dividend will begin to ripple through the global economy as the Hormuz risk premium comes out of the system. President Trump’s Iran deal is not the end of a war. It is something rarer: a decisive victory that changes the terms of the war. Trump’s Iran deal is a Trafalgar moment: a single, brutal victory that doesn’t end the war, but decides who holds the decisive weapon. In classic Mahanian fashion, it seizes the Strait of Hormuz out of Tehran’s grip and smashing its ability to weaponize the world’s oil supply. The agreement rips away Iran’s most dangerous levers, energy blackmail, nuclear ambiguity and the cash flow that fuels global jihad, even as the regime survives. Critics who demand regime change will howl. But if this deal is completed, it will stand as the moment the balance turned, just as Nelson’s annihilation of Napoleon’s fleet at Trafalgar settled who would command the seas. The peace dividend is not only about cheaper oil. It is about a world in which one of the most dangerous regimes on earth has less money to fund terror and less cover to hide a nuclear program behind constant crises. When the main state sponsor of jihadist violence loses its favorite leverage over global energy and finance, risk premiums fall not just at the pump, but across the entire security and investment landscape.

The Brent spot price just fell - on a similar timeline - below where it was 4 years ago after the Ukraine invasion. Two things drive this: (i) peace negotiations; and (ii) the US is guiding more and more tankers through the Strait. Iran is losing leverage. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

Ten days ago I wrote this piece pushing back on the latest oil price panic. The basic lesson is that oil prices never needed to go to $150 or $200. The rise of 60% already priced the Strait of Hormuz disruption. That's what the oil bulls have kept missing. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

When all this is over, we'll have to do some hard thinking what gold has become. Yesterday it sold off on the US bombing Iran. Today it's up on hopes of a peace deal. I don't need to hold gold to get that kind of price action. I can just hold S&P 500... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

US AND IRAN NEARING A PEACE DEAL AROUND G7 MEETING NEXT WEEK

RT @dlacalle_IA: Oil prices enter bear market territory. The futures curve points to faster disinflation in the front and back parts. Geo…

Trump’s Trafalgar Moment Trump’s Iran deal is best understood through the lens of Trafalgar: a decisive victory that does not end every conflict, but closes the enemy’s best route to success and reshapes the strategic landscape. By reopening the Strait of Hormuz, blocking Tehran’s path to a nuclear weapon, and cutting off the financial backing of global terrorism, Trump has broken Iran’s core leverage without a wider ground war. The closure and reopening of the Strait has changed the rules of the “great game” in energy security, putting the United States back at the center of global energy markets. Investors should expect critics to pan the agreement as insufficiently decisive, but they should ignore the pedantry: the rules of the game have changed and the forces for complete victory have been set in motion. Nelson’s victory at Trafalgar did not end every battle, but it closed off Napoleon’s best route to victory and set the course of the war. The end of the Cold War did not abolish conflict, but it delivered a peace dividend that reshaped economies. Trump’s deal with Iran stands in that line, a decisive strategic win with far-reaching economic and market consequences. The critics were not satisfied when Maduro fell, and they will not be satisfied now, but history will be, and capital will be too, because a peace dividend akin to the one that followed the end of the Cold War will not be ignored.

The bull market keeps climbing while inflation just hit a three-year high at 6.5%. Earnings momentum stays strong even as concerns mount about sustainability. 🔒 Members-Only quicktak.es/3f9p

🚨 TRUMP: CANCELLED SCHEDULED STRIKES AND BOMBINGS AGAINST IRAN THIS EVENING

President Trump Proved Them Wrong Again!! Now, as bombing intensifies, the regime’s foundations are beginning to give way, not only under military pressure, but under financial siege. With key channels of regime finance cut off by operations of Sec Bessent, Tehran is discovering what every petro‑authoritarian fears most: that the money stops before the missiles do. Yes the military controls the Strait of Hormuz. Yes the President will get his deal. And yes investors will get a peace dividend. It’s reported that President spoke directly with Iranian officials tonight who asked him to stop bombing, the solution Sign The Deal. This was not on the so called experts Bingo Card. Think of the sequence that is now within sight: Maduro gone, the Iranian regime beaten back and potentially broken, and a genuine peace dividend emerging as markets start to price a world less hostage to revolutionary petro‑states. For years, the pundit class told us none of this was possible. They said you could never dislodge Maduro without a quagmire. They said you could never bring the Islamic Republic to heel without a ground invasion. They said you could never assert control over Hormuz, keep oil flowing, and still push Iran off the nuclear brink. At every step, they were certain—and at every step, they were wrong. Now they face an awkward question: what will they say as the old certainties collapse in real time? Will they finally admit they misjudged Trump’s leverage, misread the vulnerability of these regimes, and misunderstood the strategic use of finance and force? Or will they tie themselves in knots explaining why the fall of dictators, the defeat of a terror‑sponsoring regime, and an emerging peace dividend are somehow just another Trumpian catastrophe? The record is clear. The only real unknown is: what will the pundits get wrong next?

Further to my earlier posts on how the global economy is handling disruptions to oil supplies, this from the WSJ: "A sharp fall in China’s crude oil imports during the Iran war has been instrumental in holding down oil prices and keeping the global economy humming. " #economy #oil #energy #markets @wsj

The UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran.