I’ve found that one of the most important things you can have is publicly verifiable bona fides. “Trust me Bro” is not good enough in today’s AI world. Illicit Finance Certifications: Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS), Advanced Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist - Risk Management (CAMS-RM), Certified Global Sanctions Specialist (CGSS), Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE), ICA-Specialist Certification in Anti-Bribery and Corruption, ICA-Specialist Designation in Counter Terrorism Financing, ICA-Specialist Designation in Financial Crime Risk in Global Banking and Investment Markets Board Member: DePaul Business School, Seton Hall’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Loyola Law’s Center for Compliance Studies Committees: American Bar Associations Anti-Money Laundering Committee, International Sanctions and Export Controls Committee, International Anti-Bribery and Corruption Committee Education: Harvard Alternative Investments Program, Stanford’s Geopolitics in the 21st Century Middle East, New York Institute of Finance Investment Banking Program, Wealth Management Certified Professional Designation Quoted as a Sanctions, Illicit Finance, and Geopolitical Expert more than 40 times just in the last 3 months of the Iran War in The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times, Politico, The Hill, Radio Free Europe, Al-Monitor, DropSite, Axios, ABC News, and Newsweek More than 40 publications on Sanctions, Money Laundering, Fraud, and Geopolitics in The Hill, Nikkei Asia, American Banker, Newsweek, The Banker, Compliance Week, RealClearWorld, RealClearDefense, The Diplomat, Seeking Alpha, Lawyers Weekly, and ACAMS Today Multiple Guest Lectures at George Washington’s Elliott School on Illicit Finance, Money Laundering, and Sanctions Multiple TV appearances across NewsNation, BBC Persia, and SBS World News, as well as a Radio appearance on NPR. Know who you are listening to. Ensure they are credible.

Iran is not outgunned. The NYTimes reported US intelligence assessments that 70-75% of its arsenal remains, while CSIS reports that more than a third of the US magazine has been depleted. Iran is not outmanned. It has more men under arms than the US. Anglo-Saxons should especially understand the nature of the Iranian leverage from holding the Gulf under fire control and imposing a blockade on Hormuz. They have been doing this for centuries. Wake the fuck up.

I see a lot of people suddenly chattering about the rumored Iranian oil sanction waivers that are "likely" to be a part of the US/Iran Memorandum of Understanding. Is this pallets of cash? Is this a way for Trump to pay off the Iranian's? Well... It's a bit more complicated. When we talk about the oil sanction waivers, we need to first understand what they are, how much more money Iran will earn, and the overall strategic context that needs to be accounted for. Luckily, we have a very recent example of what these waivers will likely look like. On March 20th, the United States authorized General License U, which unsanctioned ~180M barrels of Iranian oil at sea as of this date. Let's get a little bit more specific in explaining that. This means the oil had to be ON A SHIP by March 20th. If it was loaded on March 21st, it was NOT unsanctioned. This is very likely what the "oil sanction waivers" will be due to limitations from the United States as to the power Treasury and White House has due to the codification of many of the Iran sanctions into statutes that require Congressional approval. Okay. So that's what we're likely gonna see. "At sea" authorization. Now let's discuss how much money we're talking about, and considerations that need to be accounted for with it. As of the data I have from yesterday, Iran still has ~147M barrels loaded onto vessels. 67M of these barrels are on tankers INSIDE the US blockade line, and 80M of these are OUTSIDE the US blockade line. Since April 13th, Iran has almost entirely been cut off from their ability to export oil outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Did a tanker or two sneak through? Yes. Is it... anywhere CLOSE to what it was prior to the blockade? No. From an oil transport and export standpoint, the blockade has largely been effective. Normal monthly oil exports for Iran is generally between 1.5M and 1.8M/day. So with the 67M barrels of oil inside the Strait, this is roughly 36 days of exports that will be able to actually get sold now... but the important context is understanding the reality that if there was no blockade... this oil would have been sold regardless. As much as I am a staunch critic of the efficacy of the blockade as a strategic for the United States, I also need to be fair and reasonable. This is NOT "pallets of cash" by saying these 67M barrels inside the blockade line are "free money". They would've sold it if not for the blockade, so it would be disingenuous to count this under new money. As for the oil at sea, we're talking ~80M barrels that are storage on tankers that are "in-transit" to potential buyers, or held as "floating storage". This, again, is actually a lower number than it normally is. Generally speaking, Iran would have closer to 120M barrels outside this blockade line, as was the case when it was imposed on April 13th. So again... pretty disingenuous to claim these are "new monies". Okay. Now that we have this out of the way... If the oil is no longer sanctioned, more countries can buy it. If more countries can buy it, there is greater demand. If there is greater demand... prices rise. This is true. But... not to the degree you would expect. Right now, Iranian oil is being sold at only a $1/barrel discount to Brent. It is likely that if these sanctions waivers are issued, that would rise to ~$4/barrel. Which... that matters. But it's NOT going to just balloon to a $45/barrel premium to Brent. That's not what we're looking at. But a $5/barrel shift on 147M barrels... that's still a good chunk of change! ~$735M. So yes... a pretty penny. However, this... just isn't "massive" when we're talking in the context of a country of 93M people. It's not nothing, it helps, but it's NOT the "big picture". What IS the big picture, is the roughly ~67M barrels that Iran can NOT currently sell due to the blockade, PLUS the ~$735M in additional revenues from the sanction waivers. When we calculate for the value of the 67M barrels, we need to account for the fact that oil prices will drop as a result of an MOU agreement. Right now, Brent is trading at ~$87/barrel. After, let's account for ~$77/barrel. BUT, let's also make sure to remember that Iranian oil will likely be trading at a $4/barrel premium to Brent. So $81/barrel. 67M barrels at $81/barrel equates to revenues of $5.4B, plus $735M = The PROBLEM, and what is TRULY important here, is examining the IMPACT of the blockade, and how much relief Iran will be seeing as a result of the oil sanction waivers. When we combine this with the pallets of cash Iran WILL see under an MOU, and please don't waste my time telling me they won't, the impact of the US blockade of Iran will be ENTIRELY unwound. Even if we operate on the very lowest end of rumored unfreezing, we're talking ~$6B. Add to this the ~$5.4B from the oil sales $735M from the sanction waiver benefits = $12.16B of fresh cash to Iran. Now does that mean the United States just handed Iran ~$12B? No. It does not. What it TRULY means, is that all of the pressures from the blockade and economic warfare campaign will be unraveled. Any hopes of the US toppling the regime from it? Gone forever. Even if we theoretically reimposed the blockade after the initial 60 days of the MOU, we just unraveled 61 days of economic pain since April 13th. Are we REALLY going to try to reimplement the blockade for ANOTHER 61 days just to get back to this same point that, may I remind you... has produced zero strategic objectives whatsoever and likely wouldn't for at LEAST six more months? No. Once these sanction waivers are authorized... once the United States lifts the blockade for the first 60 days of the MOU... once Trump DOES deliver "pallets of cash" to Iran... It's over. Done. Finito. Comprende? Once the MOU is signed, the economic warfare campaign is officially dead in the water.

Another VLCC tanker infiltrated the U.S. blockade line… While this war has certainly been lost by the United States… this kind of thing is just embarrassing.

As for likely Iranian oil sanction waivers that will be issued under the MOU if finalized: Iran currently has 67M barrels of oil loaded onto vessels inside the U.S. blockade line. At a production rate average of ~1.7M barrels per day, that’s equivalent to 36 days of exports. With the oil sanction waivers, we would likely only see a shift from discount to premium of ~$5/barrel. From a $1/barrel discount now, to a ~$4/barrel premium post waiver. However, it’s worth nothing that these waivers will also increase the sales price of the 80M barrels outside the blockade line as well. Purely due to the sanction waivers, we would be looking at increased revenue flows PURELY due to the sanction waivers of (80M x $5) (67M x $5) = $735M When we look at the TOTAL value of the Iranian oil already loaded, we would need to assume a further drop in oil prices, but also be accounting for a $4 premium to Brent. Assuming Brent falls to ~$78/barrel on an MOU announcement, when we include the ~$4/barrel premium for Iranian to Brent, we would be looking at a rough sales price of $82/barrel. $82 x 147M total loaded = $12.05B While Iran would not be able to receive ~45.6% of these revenues due to the blockade if it remained in place, once it is lifted, Iran will IMMEDIATELY have $12B of oil in transit to buyers. That alone is enough to ENTIRELY wipe out the economic pain they’ve endured from the U.S. blockade. Once this MOU is announced… Game over.

Many people look at the rumored terms of a potential Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran and, correctly, view it as total U.S. defeat. But that’s misunderstanding the most important victory the U.S. have given Iran: Safety. For nearly five decades, the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby have been trying to find a President foolish enough to buy their propaganda and attack Iran. For 47 years, they searched, spending their entire careers in the pursuit of war. Now, they got it… and failed in the most disastrous way anyone could have thought. It wasn’t just a loss, it was an embarrassment that will forever impact the legacy of Donald Trump. For the next 250 years, no American President will ever even THINK about attacking Iran again. Not after this failure. Not after this embarrassment. Any person that pitches “attack Iran” will be laughed out of the room. While Iran will irrefutably exit this conflict in a far stronger strategic position than they entered, that is not the most significant accomplishment they have secured in this War. The greatest victory for the Iranian regime is not frozen assets. It’s not the Strait of Hormuz. It’s the assurance of knowing they have embarrassed the United States so thoroughly that no President will attack Iran for centuries.

Another curious wrinkle that I am watching under a potential Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran is not just how SANCTIONS are handled if Iran secures any toll/fee/tax, but how terror financing laws across multiple different jurisdictions is handled. Let’s get this part out of the way right off the bat: I don’t care what you think about sanctions or terror designations. This is a legal discussion, not an ethical one. So leave that to the side here and let’s get real. A great recent example exists that illustrates the challenges that still exist regardless of the MOU, and this is looking at the oil sanction waivers the United States authorized for Iranian oil in March. Okay, so the United States doesn’t have sanctions on that oil anymore… but the European Union does. The United Kingdom does. So do Canada and Australia. Whoopdiedoo the U.S. pulled them, but a large amount of the West STILL can’t purchase that oil. Sure, sure, so we got that settled, but American… OBVIOUSLY they could purchase that oil, right? Nope. This is because the IRGC is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This means that any payment towards tolls/fees/taxes would be in violation of terror financing laws. Soooo there’s that hurdle… When we look at the overall maritime shipping fleet, Greece alone makes up 21% of the fleet. EU member. The EU as a whole? 35%. In the UK, 35% of global maritime insurance premiums are paid to UK insurers. 65% of P&I insurance. Altogether, we’re looking at a MAJORITY of vessels and companies being unable to make payments that in any way provides benefit/material support to Iran or the IRGC due to sanctions and terror financing laws. Crypto? Doesn’t circumvent. Chinese Yuan? Doesn’t circumvent. Gold? Doesn’t circumvent. Barter trades? Doesn’t circumvent. We’re not talking about tiny companies that are hiding money under their mattress to evade sanctions and terror financing laws. As long as these are in place, particularly across the U.S., UK, and EU… We’re not going to see anything REMOTELY close to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As I told ABC News: “It is not just in violation of US sanctions. It is in violation of UK sanctions, EU sanctions, Canadian sanctions, and Australian sanctions to make payments to Iran or the IRGC." abc.net.au/news/2026-05-10/i…

Trump threatened to bomb Oman based on a disinformation campaign that they issued non-existent Royal Decrees. If you think the United States would allow the UAE to pay Iran without our nod of approval… you’re naive.

Couple things: 1. If the terms of the Iran deal being floated are accurate, it’s a complete US surrender and a total embarrassment. 2. Trump casually threatening to nuke Iran if the deal doesn’t go through is fucking insane.

This isn’t “GCC paying Iran to behave”, it’s Trump’s cover for “pallets of cash”.

I’ve found that one of the most important things you can have is publicly verifiable bona fides. “Trust me Bro” is not good enough in today’s AI world. Illicit Finance Certifications: Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist (CAMS), Advanced Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialist - Risk Management (CAMS-RM), Certified Global Sanctions Specialist (CGSS), Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE), ICA-Specialist Certification in Anti-Bribery and Corruption, ICA-Specialist Designation in Counter Terrorism Financing, ICA-Specialist Designation in Financial Crime Risk in Global Banking and Investment Markets Board Member: DePaul Business School, Seton Hall’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Loyola Law’s Center for Compliance Studies Committees: American Bar Associations Anti-Money Laundering Committee, International Sanctions and Export Controls Committee, International Anti-Bribery and Corruption Committee Education: Harvard Alternative Investments Program, Stanford’s Geopolitics in the 21st Century Middle East, New York Institute of Finance Investment Banking Program, Wealth Management Certified Professional Designation Quoted as a Sanctions, Illicit Finance, and Geopolitical Expert more than 40 times just in the last 3 months of the Iran War in The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times, Politico, The Hill, Radio Free Europe, Al-Monitor, DropSite, Axios, ABC News, and Newsweek More than 40 publications on Sanctions, Money Laundering, Fraud, and Geopolitics in The Hill, Nikkei Asia, American Banker, Newsweek, The Banker, Compliance Week, RealClearWorld, RealClearDefense, The Diplomat, Seeking Alpha, Lawyers Weekly, and ACAMS Today Multiple Guest Lectures at George Washington’s Elliott School on Illicit Finance, Money Laundering, and Sanctions Multiple TV appearances across NewsNation, BBC Persia, and SBS World News, as well as a Radio appearance on NPR. Know who you are listening to. Ensure they are credible.

I think you would have to be either insanely naive, or exceptionally disingenuous to believe the United States will not be delivering pallets of cash to Iran to end this conflict. “Humanitarian aid”, “Gulf payments”, “Security guarantees”… whatever you want to call it, they are payments made at the authorization of the United States to Iran.

Without question, the United States authorized this transfer of $3B from UAE to Iran. We threatened to bomb Oman over a couple of “maybes”… you better believe the U.S. wouldn’t stand idly by and let UAE give Iran this money without our consent. Pallets. Of. Cash.

“Regime change of the wrong kind”. This is one of the biggest issues people are not quite grasping. The Iran Hawks… the Israeli Lobby… they got their SHOT here. But now? No President for the next 250 years will DARE go back to Iran. By Iran surviving here, we just handed them a runway of almost unlimited space.

I love having very public bona fides that Grok replies with… You want to attack my credentials, be my guest, but if you’re going to try to go toe to toe… you’re going to lose.