3rd June end of day analysis for 4th June
Today was a brutal day for
#Nifty traders and overall markets in general. On such days, one feels lucky to be on the right side of the index move and risk management skills are tested to the core.
The analysis posted yesterday at
x.com/avipreet/status/206186โฆ did not really hold good apart from the fact that we did see a complete V shape recovery from the last support level mentioned in the post i.e. 23150. Also, the index did end with a bullish undertone.
There were multiple factors at play today:
1. Overnight, tensions flared between Iran and other ME countries with fresh reports of Iran attack on Kuwait coming in.
2. Bloomberg published a news article stating that RBI may have sold some
#Gold assets to stabilize INR
3. IT Index was down and out with bellwethers
#TCS and
#INFY down 9 pct (at one point of time) and 4.5 pct.
4. FII sell numbers were already negative as of yesterday.
Inspite of all of this, NIFTY somehow showed a mercurial recovery from the 23150 gap fill level. This was something that fellow traders
@rathi_amit ,
@HiteshRandhawa were rooting for and it happened. Hats off to them! While the sharp recovery came at the back of a resurgent Bank Nifty ,a RBI clarification and a
#LTCG waiver rumor all of which could not have come in a minute too late, it still left a sour taste for folks who were both long or short as it ended up eating stop losses on either side.
So, where do we go from here.
1. Change in OI - Neutral to Bullish as seen in the OI change snapshot from
#SENSIBULL Pro Traders change in OI is bullish today
2. Price Action - Positive
Nifty ended the day with a dragonfly doji on daily tf. Construed as positive.
Nifty's biggest constituent Bank Nifty ended with a Bullish hammer forming a double or rather triple bottom defending 53000. Bank Nifty could lead the way now and surge ahead pushing Nifty as well
Directional View - Positive on Nifty, again will stay long with immediate targets of 23800 once the 23500-550 zone is crossed. If today's low 23150 is broken, will look to short intraday with target of 23000-22900. Positional view is still long.
Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.
#NIFTY
2nd June end of day analysis for 3rd June
1. Good bullish candle formed today at key gap fill support level. Today's low should be SL for those who chose to take positional longs. For conservative bulls, 23350 should be partial square off level. Price action points to bullish continuation for tomorrow.
2. Outstanding OI for next expiry has a bearish tinge to it, given the huge bullish positions for Client vs bearish positions for FIIs. [Shown Below] However, I will choose price action to carry more weight for day after expiry.
Directional View - For a gap down scenario, look for bullish reversals around 23370-23420 zone. I do expect some consolidation around 23500 zone, once we sustain above 23500 comfortably with a 15/30 min close, next target should be 23800 where the next resistance should come in. Key Levels marked below
For a flat opening, look for a breakout above 23600 levels for 23800 as immediate target.
If 23350 is broken on the downside, expect 23230,23150 to be tested before the next target of 23000.
I will be trading with a bullish bias for tomorrow up to 23800 where I will review. Of course, standard disclaimer of external overnight event applies which will invalidate this view.
#NIFTY #NSE
For how the 2nd of June expiry analysis played out today, refer to
x.com/avipreet/status/206178โฆ