MIDTERMS
Replace these with MAGA;
Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) Vote Julia Letlow
Collins (Maine) No one ran against her.
Mullins (Ok) June Primary, Jackson Lahmeyer
Rounds (SD) June Primary, Justin McNeal
Thom Tillis (NC) Vote Whatley
Capture these retiring Democrat seats;
Dick Durbin (Illinois) Vote Don Tracy
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) Replace with John E. Sununu Primary on September 8
Gary Peters (Michigan) Replace with Mike Rogers Primary August 4th
Tina Smith (Minnesota) Primary August 11th, I lean with Royce White or David Hann
That would give us 57 more reliable seats
Republican House members to replace with MAGA;
Dan Newhouse (Washington, 4th District) Primary August 4th, replace with Jerrod Sessler
David Valadao (California, 22nd District) No one ran against him.
Don Bacon (Nebraska, 2nd District) There is only Brinker Harding running; Don't know him
Liz Cheney (Wyoming, At-Large) Primary August 18th. I lean toward Bo Biteman or Frank Chapman
Retiring House democrat seats to capture;
Dick Durbin (Illinois) Vote Don Tracy
Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire) Primary September 8th running John E. Sununu or Scott Brown
Gary Peters (Michigan) Primary August 4th, Mike Rogers
Tina Smith (Minnesota) Primary August 12th, Royce White or David Hann
Other Vulnerable Democrat House seats;
Adam Gray (California, 13th District)
Why Vulnerable: Defeated Rep. John Duarte (R) by fewer than 200 votes in 2024, one of the closest races nationally. Trump carried the Central Valley district in 2024. Rated Toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Marcy Kaptur (Ohio, 9th District)
Why Vulnerable: Won by less than 1 point in 2024 against a strong GOP challenger. Trump won the district, and Ohio’s pending mid-cycle redistricting could make it more Republican-leaning. Rated Toss-up by Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Henry Cuellar (Texas, 28th District)
Why Vulnerable: Represents a South Texas district Trump carried in 2024. Rated Toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball due to shifting Hispanic voter trends toward Republicans.
Vicente Gonzalez (Texas, 34th District)
Why Vulnerable: Another South Texas district Trump won in 2024. Rated Toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Gonzalez won by a narrow margin in 2024, facing GOP gains among Hispanic voters.
Jared Golden (Maine, 2nd District)
Why Vulnerable: Won by less than 1 point in 2024, despite Trump carrying this rural district by 10 points. Rated Lean Democratic by Inside Elections. Benefits from ranked-choice voting, which helped secure his 2024 win.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Washington, 3rd District)
Why Vulnerable: Defeated GOP challenger Joe Kent in 2022 and 2024 in a district Trump carried. Rated Lean Democratic by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, nearly Toss-up due to weak 2024 GOP opposition.
Yadira Caraveo (Colorado, 8th District)
Why Vulnerable: Lost to Rep. Gabe Evans (R) in 2024 but could run again. Trump won the district, and it’s rated Toss-up for Republicans (implying Caraveo’s potential return would be Lean Democratic at best).
Mary Peltola (Alaska, At-Large District)
Why Vulnerable: Trails GOP Rep. Nick Begich in 2024 ranked-choice voting results (not yet finalized in some sources). Trump won Alaska, and the seat’s recent flip to Begich makes it a GOP-leaning target. Rated Lean Democratic if Peltola runs again.
Don Davis (North Carolina, 1st District)
Why Vulnerable: Represents a Trump-won district in Eastern North Carolina. Rated Lean Democratic due to Davis’s strong local ties but vulnerable to GOP gains post-2024 redistricting.
Other competitve Democrat House Seats;
Laura Gillen (New York, 4th District)
Why Vulnerable: Defeated Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) in 2024 on Long Island. Rated Lean Democratic due to tight 2024 margin and local GOP resurgence.
George Whitesides (California, 27th District)
Why Vulnerable: Unseated Rep. Mike Garcia (R) in 2024 by a narrow margin. Rated Lean Democratic due to Southern California’s swingy nature.
Derek Tran (California, 45th District)
Why Vulnerable: Ousted Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in 2024 by just over 650 votes. Rated Lean Democratic but highly competitive.
Tom Suozzi (New York, 3rd District)
Why Vulnerable: Won a 2024 special election and general election in Nassau County. Rated Likely Democratic but competitive due to New York’s tight races.