SF, Berkeley has been nuts for decades. Imagine the rot leading up to this movie. youtube.com/watch?v=oJnW0Dy-…

Scratch a Democrat reveal a Comrade Kaprugina . youtube.com/watch?v=mq__Z-Z_…

1933 sure was a different time. Kid From Borneo Our Gang youtube.com/watch?v=Bj3p_tdD…

Some humor.

One of my granddaughters asked me what the 80's were like. MTV and Miami Vice were great. youtube.com/watch?v=Vi-CfLsg…

We must be close to having the submerged beach ball of oil prices lifting, because Trump is taking some aggressive actions again.

When Mark Twain visited the Land of Israel in 1867 under Ottoman rule, he did not describe some booming, densely populated Arab state that Jews later “colonized.” He described a neglected and desolate land. In The Innocents Abroad, Twain wrote about empty valleys, uncultivated fields, swamps, ruins, and long stretches of land with barely any people at all. He famously described parts of the land as “desolate” and “unpeopled.” That does not mean nobody lived there. Arabs, Jews, Christians, Druze, and others were living throughout the land. But Twain’s firsthand observations completely contradict the modern revisionist fantasy that the land was a thriving Palestinian national society before Zionism. Jerusalem itself had only around 15,000 people at the time, and Jews were already the largest demographic group in the city. Much of the land was poor, undeveloped, malaria-ridden, and economically stagnant after centuries of Ottoman neglect. The transformation came later. Jewish pioneers drained swamps, fought malaria and typhus, built farms, roads, universities, hospitals, ports, industries, and entire cities from the ground up, turning a neglected province into one of the most advanced and innovative countries in the world. People ignore Twain’s testimony because it destroys the simplistic colonial narrative they try to force onto Jewish history.

👀

Weaker demand from very high local prices. Not much to be expected from $95 Brent. China using storage from oil bought earlier makes maybe the most crucial impact. I bet they are feeling smart buying Biden's SPR sales cheap and avoided driving costs significantly higher now.

Coming up on another date in history Custer and other Calvary never made it to 100th 4th of July celebration. In 1933 when these cards were traded people would have still remembered.

This 4th of July 250 Years will have passed. Our Liberty is under constant threat. Long before telephones were widely used (land line) there was patriotism and sharing of post cards like this for 4th of July. Date stamp 1907.

Oil services and drillers...

Notice the flip flop here. In 2015, Xi said that "there's no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the World" and now? Xi just sat across from Donald Trump in the Great Hall of the People and asks whether the two powers can “overcome the Thucydides Trap” and “forge a new paradigm” for great-power relations. Funny! Because a decade ago, he used the phrase "so-called" to describe it and outright denied that it was an applicable concept. So why the change of tone you ask? This is what you'd call a tell, an involuntary admission that Beijing’s position has deteriorated sharply since 2015. Back then, China was at the height of the post-financial crisis boom. Beijing was surging with double digit growth (on paper), the Belt and Road Initiative was rolling out to great fanfare, island building in the South China Sea was barely met with any Western response (thanks Obama), and the American president was still preaching “strategic patience.” Today, in 2026, the material reality has flipped. China’s much-hyped “century of rejuvenation” has slammed into structural headwinds that no amount of state media spin can hide - a demographic death spiral, a property sector collapse that wiped out trillions in household wealth, local government debt bombs lurking on the books, and a tech ecosystem increasingly isolated by US export controls and friend-shoring. The GDP overtake narrative that once enthralled the elites at Davos has quietly died; projections now show America pulling further ahead in nominal terms. Xi’s “China Dream” is at best delayed and at worst, never materializing. Trump 2.0 brought tariffs back on the table, hardened alliances with Japan and the Philippines, accelerated arms sales to Taiwan, and an American public finally awake to the CCP’s game. Knowing that China requires continued access to Western markets, capital, and technology to avoid stagnation at home, Xi now does a U-Turn and reaches for the historical analogy he once dismissed. Basically when you’re strong, you deny any threat exists hoping to lull the bigger power into complacency. When your power and strength wanes, warn that resistance will produce the very conflict you claim to fear. Xi is essentially saying to America, "don't contain us, don’t push back too hard, or you’ll be the paranoid Sparta that started the war against Athens.” It's actually a veiled threat to keep the one-way transfer of power and wealth open, OR ELSE. This 180 deg shift proves that the balance is tilting back toward American strength. The correct US response is to reject the premise entirely, and continue to maintain unrelenting pressure on every front and force Xi to choose between genuine reform at home or managed decline on Beijing’s terms. Xi’s sudden invocation of the Thucydides Trap - something he used to dismiss - simply confirms that the pressure worked. Americans should take this as a sign that their country is not in decline, despite the insane amount of propaganda now also being touted by American influencers and podcasters.

$OIH $ESI.TO Interesting snippet from Ensign Energy Services: "We're seeing a lot of PE names we haven't seen before put together teams and call us and ask us for rigs" 🧐

Iran wants nukes. They want to use those nukes. The Iranian regime is run by end-times religious fanatics. President Trump wants to make sure they never get those nukes. Why is it impossible for Democrats to root for American success in this mission? It's baffling to me.

CITIGROUP'S MAX LAYTON WARNS: Q3 PINCH POINT COULD SEND OIL TO $180 Max Layton, Citigroup Inc.'s global head of commodities research, just broke down the real dynamics in today's oil market. While many expected physical barrels to surge far above futures amid Iran tensions, the opposite is happening right now. The physical market has converged down to paper prices — and that single fact changes everything about how traders should see the next few months. THE PHYSICAL MARKET REALITY ➡️ Physical barrel prices are not much higher than futures at all. ➡️ The physical market has converged down to paper markets despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed. ➡️ This echoes 2020 when physical oil went negative across the United States even as storage stayed open. THE GLOBAL BUFFER ➡️ The world built a massive 700-800 million barrel inventory cushion in the preceding 12 months — most of it in China. ➡️ We are now eating through those barrels aggressively but the physical impact is spread out over time. ➡️ Even if a deal lands today it would still take months to clear mines, ramp production, and fix logistics. THE Q3 PINCH POINT ➡️ Third quarter shapes up as the critical pinch point. ➡️ Inventories could tighten to levels consistent with $150-180 Brent and $200-plus product prices. ➡️ The price pull from physical is gradual but powerful once that buffer runs low. THE DEAL UNCERTAINTY ➡️ Prices swung wildly from $125 to $98 purely on shifting hopes of a US-Iran deal. ➡️ Predicting what the new Iranian leadership will do remains extremely difficult. ➡️ Max Layton believes the regime could survive years under blockade by printing money and prioritizing its supporters. THE BOTTOM LINE Max Layton sees the oil market far more realistically than most commodity strategists. Any clear sign the regime will quickly do a deal would force him to slash his price forecasts dramatically. The calm you see in physical prices today is just the calm before the storm. #OilMarket #MaxLayton #Citigroup #PhysicalOil #OilPrices #Q3Pinch #IranDeal

1) The SPR release is sending huge volumes of US crude into Europe, which is significantly dragging down the North Sea window diffs. 2) Panic bought cargoes from 1-2 months ago are arriving in Asia this month, giving Asian buyers some breathing room. There is a distinct lack of aggressive buying. 3) China's SPR release. 4) Due to the combination of points 2 and 3, buyers are holding off on bids and staying on the sidelines, hoping the Strait will open. If it doesn't open soon, they'll be forced back into bidding for barrels. 5) I don’t want to blame anyone for this wait and see attitude. Looking at the demand to ship out enriched uranium stocks, I believe the chances of reaching a deal are extremely low. 6) But others might think differently. Plus no buyer wants to risk looking like a fool. Refineries still running have gained a bit of breathing room with May arrivals, and the rest have already implemented run cuts. Opportunistic buying is only natural. 6) There is plenty of incentive for operational refineries to maintain max runs. European diesel spreads are still at insane levels, and the WTI 3-2-1 crack is nearing $54/bbl even while crude is swinging by ~$20/bbl. 7) Unless diplomatic progress creates actual change, I expect buyers will soon be forced to start bidding again. 8) I made massive profits on Brent for Apr, May, and June, but it's true I’m currently seeing a loss on the July contract. I cut down my rollover volume knowing these headline swings would happen, and I added to my position yesterday. Unfortunately even those additional entries are starting out in the red. I'm disclosing this bc transparency is important. I'm open to hearing other perspectives. #oott #iran

Among others holding stronger gains than $XOP.

Sunday morning reminder, 250 years. We separated from England for a reason.