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Another way of looking at how strong Burnham’s personal vote is in Makerfield. Starmer has net negative favourability even among those planning on voting Labour. Meanwhile a Burnham has net approval of 99 (!) among Makerfield Labour voters.
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
Jun 14
Makerfield would now vote to rejoin the EU – further evidence of why viewing British politics as frozen in 2016 is such an error.
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
Jun 12
TIMES EXCLUSIVE: NEW MAKERFIELD POLL
BURNHAM 45%
REFORM 40%
RESTORE 8%
More in Common/UCL Policy Lab, 28 May-12 June, 515 adults
thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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🆕 @Moreincommon_ /@UCLPolicyLab poll for @thetimes finds @AndyBurnhamGM leading the race in the Makerfield by-election but over 1 in 10 still undecided about their vote and Restore Britain currently saving their deposit. Andy Burnham on track for Makerfield win — thanks to Restore Britain
thetimes.com/article/5e8bd4c…
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How do people describe main party leaders in their own words. The world clouds below give you a flavour of what the public say.
For Starmer biggest word is weak, For Farage racist,
For Badenoch OK
For Davey don’t know
How negative they are neatly captures an anti politics mood
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May 26
Had to do it for that slogan tbh
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
"Makerfield is a seat that Reform should always expect to win, for every reason other than it's in Greater Manchester."
@LukeTryl and Charlie Buckley on whether Burnham's Manchester X-factor is enough for him to win the upcoming by-election.
Find this week's episode here: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas…
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🧵With Keir Starmer facing mounting criticism within his own ranks, we asked people in their own words what they felt his biggest achievement as Prime Minister had been. While 'nothing' dominates, the Iran War and Trump also featured as does the NHS/waiting lists.
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
May 14
In this week’s very well timed @opinionbriefpod I’m chatting about our polling on potential Labour leadership hopefuls - including Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting 👀🌹
Have a listen here - open.spotify.com/show/4STxZ0…
“No other figure has that cross-partisan support.”
Is Andy Burnham Labour’s only chance of pulling support back from both the Greens and Reform?
As Burnham announces his intention to return to Westminster, @LukeTryl and @SophieStowers provide a rundown of where he stands in the eyes of the public.
Find this week's episode here: tr.ee/pMONGLjEql
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Doing this health warning now: MRP projections or UNS swings of Makerfield aren't designed for by-elections. They don't take account of specific nature of by-elections and Burnham's personal vote which from every focus group I can tell you is real. IMO Burnham starts as favourite
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In a series of northern wards, it wasn’t simply the case the Tories sent Reform and Labour lost to the Greens, the size of the right bloc grew. Some of that will be differential turnout, but some, and our qual back this up was Lab-Ref switchers.
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First from my list of councils to watch and Reform totally dominate in Hartlepool winning all 12 seats. Tories now have 0 seats in the place that flew a Boris blimp only 5 years ago.
Only a third of the council is up but Reform should expect to make gains from Labour and Tories and only needs a handful of wins in Labour held seats to deny them control. This will be an early sign of how dominant in the red wall Reform now are
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🧵 Polls have now closed. Here's some of what I might think they might tell us. While much of the focus will be on the future of the PM, important though that is, I think the lessons will be way bigger & tell us a lot about the social contract, party system & future of the UK.
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Cameron Garrett retweeted
May 6
🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting
➡️ RFM: 47
👤 IND: 17
🌹 LAB: 14
🌍 GRN: 12
🌳 CON: 6
🔶 LDM: 5
Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city
Independents surge to become 2nd largest group
itv.com/news/central/2026-05…
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Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.
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Our Final Welsh MRP finds Labour being squeezed. Plaid leading on vote share but tied with Reform on seats and clutch of highly marginal 6th seats
🌼Plaid Cymru 34 seats
➡️Reform UK 34 seats
🌹Labour 14 seats
🌳Conservatives 9 seats
💚Greens 5 seats
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