The news just broke that SoftBank could not secure a 6bn$ vs its OpenAI shares Let me tell you a thing: if you cannot secure a 6bn$ loan against collateral you claim is worth ~100bn$, then the latter isn't worth ~100bn$. In this case, it might be worth not much more than 6bn$.

When people encounter extreme declines and face huge losses, they will uninstall the app and then forget about it.

They all say cryptocurrency has to wait until October, but I think it might come earlier.

DeepSeek is becoming more popular among US enterprises as companies look for cheaper alternatives to Anthropic and OpenAI “DeepSeek takes top spot on 'trending' list as companies look for alternatives to OpenAI and Anthropic, spending tracker's report says Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek took the top spot on a major US business spending index in June, surging as more companies swap out expensive American options like OpenAI and Anthropic in favour of more affordable alternatives.” Nothing to see here

⚠️Why didn’t the hyperscalers wait until after the IPO in switching to pay-by-usage-charging? My guess is that *they literally could not afford to* —because it would bankrupt them. My reasoning: in “all you can eat” agent era they were hemorrhaging money. So the hyperscalers probably had to choose between hemorrhaging insane amounts of money (with tokenmaxxing) and reducing usage and potentially burning customer enthusiasm (via increasing rates). They would eat another 6 months of all you can eat if they possibly could– to establish market appetite—so I conclude that they just can’t. Conclusion: They just don’t have enough cash. Despite the possibility of giant IPOs, their financial situation is shaky.

$BABA $KWEB Top-down analysis often lags behind market price movements, but that doesn’t mean you’re wrong. I remain firmly bullish on KWEB, BABA, and ETH. I won’t change my view due to short-term price fluctuations. After suffering a major loss on BB, I’ve learned one important lesson: no matter how the price moves, always stick to your original conviction.

The protagonist of AI’s second half isn’t high-priced flagship large models, but affordable, practical, massively deployable, and unlimited-use AI — only those that are truly ‘affordable to use, delightful to use, and scalable at scale’ can win massive adoption and lasting victory.

高成本AI难持续：企业用不起→大模型公司提价→更多企业弃用→估值崩盘，形成典型恶性循环

The basic economics of Ai even in a perfect scenario where it eliminates 40% of American jobs by 2035 are a complete failure. The combined salary of every single person in America is $10 trillion. If we take out taxes assuming Ai has to pay the government, that’s approximately $7 trillion. Assuming a depreciation of 5 years and “conservative” 175 GW of data centers ultimately needed, the yearly replacement cost of equipment will be near $2 trillion. Energy costs will push that to nearly $2.5 trillion of annual maintenance costs. Let’s assume there is a government bailout to exclude the $1 trillion revenue of annual interest due on bonds. We’ll also assume the corporations will strangely agree to doing this entirely as a charity with no profits. Absolutely no cost outside power and replacement costs. That $2.5 trillion annual cost would mean 37% of Americans would need to be un-employed just to achieve a break even cost for the most basic costs. Stupidity. $GOOG $AMZN $META $MSFT

How can I reduce my AI expenses?

Excuse me? Tencent at PE 15? EV 10.2x Has the market just forgotten about Chinese stocks?

If the US and China are in an AI race, I’m only seeing one frontrunner right now — has the game already ended?

$BABA BABA and BIDU, as the most important US-listed exposures to Chinese technology, will directly benefit from the sustained inflow of overseas capital and the recovery of market sentiment.

$BABA As the first half draws to a close, let’s take a look at the second-half players: BABA and KWEB.

$KWEB 我一定是疯了，我认为KWEB在下半场会跑赢QQQ😂