Founded by @LarrySabato. A nonpartisan unit of UVA promoting civic learning & engagement to improve democracy. Crystal Ball & more: linktr.ee/c4politics
Joined November 2009
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NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball, and as reported first in @playbookdc this morning --
Three Senate Rating Changes:
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
More from @kkondik & @JMilesColeman
centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
How big GOP win in 10-state gerrymander? @kkondik 4 @LarrySabato @Center4Politics "Median CD by POTUS performance now VA-1, (R-Wittman) 2 points right of old median district, 3.5 points right of nation in '24
Taking Stock of the 2026 House Map: An Update centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
Jun 9
One of the ways to quantify how redistricting improved things for Rs in the House -- there are now 14 more districts where Trump got 55% or more, and just 1 more where he got 45% of less. That also hollowed out the middle Trump 46%-54% zone, reducing it from 85 to 70
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NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @kkondik analyzes the overall House map as redistricting winds down. How big of an edge did Republicans get through the redraws? centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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“Redemption has also become partisan.”
@Center4Politics director @LarrySabato joins @CNN’s Brianna Keiler @brikeilarcnn to discuss the mounting trouble for Graham Platner’s Senate campaign in Maine — and why, in the Trump era, scandals may not land the way they once did.
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"Peak Trump” may be over.
@LarrySabato joins @CNN's @jimsciutto to discuss cracks emerging among congressional Republicans as November approaches.
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.@Center4Politics director @LarrySabato tells @CNN that private polling, the unpopular Iran war & persistent affordability concerns are changing the midterm calculations on Capitol Hill for some Republicans looking to distance themselves from President Trump.
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
Jun 4
Crystal Ball: The Senate races that made the majority - a three-cycle look at the key races centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
Iowa gets (even) more interesting. @kkondik @JMilesColeman for @LarrySabato @Center4Politics Attractive D candidate (Rob Sand) moves Gov from lean R to Tossup. Retiring Sen Ernst cracks door open: R-Likely goes to Lean. Trump hasn't done well by the state
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.@LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball: after last night’s Iowa primary, some rating changes.
The Gov race moves from Leans R to Toss-up while the Senate race moves from Likely R to Leans R. Plus a few House rating changes.
centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
New - Crystal Ball rating change
Iowa Governor - 🔴 Lean Republican ⏩ 🟡 Toss up
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
Jun 3
Crystal Ball Rating Changes in IOWA:
IA-GOV Leans R to Toss-up
IA-SEN Likely R to Leans R
More in tomorrow's Crystal Ball
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
May 28
My latest for @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball @Center4Politics: Fun with Media Markets: A Cheapskate’s Guide to Investing in Competitive Races. centerforpolitics.org/crysta…
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So, how much does that Paxton fellow change the Control-of-Senate math? A lean, not a lurch. "GOP went with riskier general election candidate. But, as rating suggests, riskier can still win."
@kkondik @JMilesColeman for @LarrySabato @Center4Politics
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NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @kkondik & @JMilesColeman analyze the Texas runoffs and move two races, TX-SEN and TX-35, from Likely R to Leans R
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
May 27
Crystal Ball Senate rating change:
Texas Senate moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican following Ken Paxton's primary runoff victory over John Cornyn
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
May 25
Today is our nations Memorial Day. Enjoy your day and take a moment to remember the true meaning of this day. A day to pay our respects to all those who have given their lives in our country's defense. God bless these brave heroes and their families.
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.@LarrySabato’s Crystal Ball: How we’d rate potential new maps in several Deep South states that are quickly moving to redraw their maps after Callais.
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.@Center4Politics director @LarrySabato joined @CNN today to discuss Trump’s continued grip on the GOP, the political danger Republicans face with independents, & the growing questions surrounding presidential power, accountability, & the use of federal agencies.
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Center for Politics at UVA retweeted
The Crystal Ball's @kkondik & @JMilesColeman are working with @CBSNews tonight covering tonight's primaries
What are the ramifications of the unprecedented mid-decade redistricting that has taken place so far this year ahead of November’s midterm elections?
CBS News Executive Director of Elections & Surveys @SalvantoCBS and Sabato's Crystal Ball Managing Editor @kkondik break down the potential outcomes for the congressional map.
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