Global CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2013, leading to a slower growth in atmospheric CO2 than would have otherwise been the case. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I've taken look at what would have happened if emissions had continued to grow.

Global CO2 emissions have plateaued since 2013, leading to a slower growth in atmospheric CO2 than would have otherwise been the case. In a new analysis at The Climate Brink, I've taken look at what would have happened if emissions had continued to grow.

Even without El Niño, Global Sea Surface Temperatures are already hitting daily record highs. We're now entering a climate hotter than has existed for hundreds of thousands of years!

Global warming has accelerated. On Climate Chat we explain why, mainly with observation-based data:

Agriculture in Northern Europe wiped out by a big freeze. New York underwater. Southern Europe plunged into drought. That’s what's coming if the AMOC current in the Atlantic keeps slowing or shuts down altogether. How can we be so sure? Because we got a preview in 2009. 🧵

.@RoryStewartUK & @campbellclaret unfortunately couldn’t make it to the National Emergency Briefing. Would they consider having @MikeBernersLee on #Leading please? Mike chaired the NEB and sets out the UK threats - and the choices ahead - with exceptional clarity. #NEB2025

China just declared war. Not with missiles. With lawyers. “Chinese interest in Venezuela will be protected by law.” Read that again. Beijing didn’t threaten military action. They announced something far more dangerous to American power: They’re going to make regime change uninsurable. Here’s what 99% of analysts are missing: This isn’t about $19 billion in Venezuelan loans. This is about $1.3 TRILLION in Belt and Road debt across 150 countries. Every dollar China has lent to Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Pacific—all of it is secured by the same legal fiction: that sovereign leaders can sign contracts that successor governments must honor. The US just kidnapped a sitting president from his bedroom and flew him to Manhattan. If that precedent stands, every Belt and Road loan is worthless paper. Every port deal. Every railway. Every power plant. Gone. China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t issue a protest. They issued a statement of existential necessity. They WILL pursue international arbitration. They WILL invoke bilateral investment treaties. They WILL take this to every court from The Hague to Singapore. They WILL make the legal cost of American regime change so catastrophic that the next president thinks twice. Not for Maduro. For the entire architecture of Chinese overseas lending. Trump told Fox: “There won’t be a problem with Xi.” Xi just answered: There will be 10,000 lawyers. Watch the next 90 days. If China successfully enforces a single contract claim against a post-Maduro government—just one—they’ve established that American regime change doesn’t void Chinese debt. That’s not a victory for Venezuela. That’s a restructuring of global power. The 21st century won’t be decided by aircraft carriers. It will be decided by who writes the contracts. And who can enforce them after the coup.