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Jun 12
OUR JOURNEYS | Bracing for a Long War in Myanmar’s Karen State
Karen State is home to armed groups battling the Myanmar military. @tdkean explores the conflict’s front lines, smuggling routes and proliferating cyberscam centres.
📸 @yan_naing_aung
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Fuel smuggling helps maintain peace between Libya’s rival elites but drains the treasury. We argue how the EU and member states can curb the haemorrhaging of public funds and strengthen economic governance. crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e…
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Trump’s entreaties to Xi demonstrate fundamental lack of understanding of China in the Middle East. Tehran remains an imp partner, not just as source of energy security but also as part of China’s regional balancing strategy, which includes engagement w/Israel & Gulf Arab states.
Jun 12
Why hasn't China helped the US with Iran? Because it seeks to preserve its energy security and influence with Tehran and Gulf Arab capitals, while avoiding direct involvement in the war. It also benefits from a prolonged, contained crisis that diverts US attention from Asia. Check out my first @CrisisGroup analysis for more.
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The east of the Democratic Republic of Congo today faces one of the continent’s most acute conflict-driven humanitarian crises. Handling an embedded conflict with deep divides between the warring parties is place huge strains on diplomatic capabilities. worldpoliticsreview.com/cong…
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NEW COMMENTARY | Why China Hasn’t Helped the U.S. with Iran
China seeks to preserve its energy security and influence with Tehran and Gulf Arab capitals, while avoiding direct involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
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Much of Palestinian territory has, in effect, already been annexed. Outside powers should use their leverage, including trade and arms sales, to press Israel to stop the entrenchment and spread of annexation and to begin rolling it back. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-…
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The U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro emboldened the Trump administration to flex its military muscle elsewhere. But in Venezuela, the medium- and long-term consequences remain uncertain. crisisgroup.org/cmt/latin-am…
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As jihadist violence surges on Pakistan’s western border, the risk of fresh hostilities between Islamabad and Kabul is high. The two sides should resolve their differences through dialogue brokered by friendly countries. crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac…
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After more than four years of full-scale war, Ukraine’s fundamental aim remains the same – to convince Moscow that Kyiv can keep going longer, and inflict more pain. But is the strategy working? crisisgroup.org/cmt/europe/u…
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Jun 13
Bangladesh’s 12 February election and handover of power mark an important step forward for the country after eighteen months of interim rule. However, the new administration faces a daunting set of challenges. crisisgroup.org/brf/asia-pac…
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Jun 12
“I understand the anger that the [young Burman fighters] have.”
Home to armed groups battling the Myanmar military, @tdkean interviews fighters and civilians in Karen State.
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Jun 12
Manila’s repeated interventions in the Bangsamoro’s political life and growing fissures among the ex-rebels, have put the gains of the peace process at risk. Failure to stabilise the transition could spell trouble for the region.
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Jun 12
🎧 NEW EPISODE | The Horn
This week on The Horn, @alanboswell speaks with @tundayafolabi about what it takes to end wars across the Horn of Africa, and the efforts to resolve the conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia.
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May 31
A few thoughts on the #Colombian election:
1) Colombia will likely follow the steps of other LATAM countries embracing a hard right gvt that has promised to return to conservative values and embrace iron fist security. This is De la Espriella's election to lose.
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“Las élites haitianas tienen una gran responsabilidad. No solo no frenaron el descenso hacia los infiernos, sino que también precipitaron al país hacia esta crisis de seguridad, económica, de desconfianza política”, dijo @diego_darin a @CNNEE.
cnnespanol.cnn.com/2026/05/1…
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Jun 8
I spoke to @asahi about the evolution of the U.S. approach to @UN (in Japanese):
"the U.S. has a much narrower interpretation of what the American interest is in multilateral cooperation compared with past Administrations."
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At 8am EST tomorrow, 6/10, @le2huong will moderate a conversation between @j3nnyt0wn, @Dest_Pyongyang, and @WilliamYang120 that unpacks the Xi-Kim summit and its implications for security on the Korean Peninsula.
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Jun 11
ICYMI: Yesterday’s ICG’s event on the Xi-Kim summit implications featuring me, @Dest_Pyongyang, @WilliamYang120, and @le2huong is archived online. youtube.com/watch?v=YxFMaQxO…
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May 26
Told @The_NewArab: Mladenov’s plan makes Palestinians “have to fulfil Israel’s war goals by their own hands before Israel will give them anything. And there are no guarantees or weight of responsibility on the Israelis to keep their side of the bargain.”
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Jun 8
T S Eliot measured out life in coffee spoons. #Peru does so with counted votes. As presidential elections edge to a cliffhanger, it pays to wait: this graph from @elcomercio_peru shows the number of days until a winner is announced after recent polls.
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