Fascinating report. If confirmed, the devil is in the details. Clearly the US would like to use military force against cartels in Mexico; reaching such an agreement with Guatemala and then Honduras would build towards that goal (which Mexico thus far has refused to accommodate).
Counternarcotics is fundamentally a law enforcement and demand reduction issue. Host country military support for CN — logistics, intelligence, maritime interdiction, force protection — has been ongoing, and the US military can and has usefully contributed to this.
The details of the agreement are crucial: who does what to whom, under whose laws, and under whose authority, and who decides on any use of lethal force; and what are the rules of engagement and rules on the escalation of force. Attacks on suspected drug boats and aircraft would be unlikely to reduce actual drug shipments, legal considerations aside.
At the same time, there is a new, and independent, attorney general in Guatemala; the US has an opportunity to repair and to strengthen the judicial and investigative relationship between Guatemalan and US law enforcement. Narcotics traffickers operate not in a vacuum but in a political, economic, and social ecosystem. Supporting money laundering legislation, which the US Embassy in Guatemala has done, and identifying political and economic networks tied to narcos, are also key.
Breaking News: Guatemala agreed to carry out joint strikes with the U.S. to target drug traffickers within its own borders, in a further expansion of the Trump administration’s military campaign across Latin America.
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