Cryptoeconomist @official_trakx | Former Global Macro PM/Macroeconomist | Crypto class of 2013

Joined September 2022
180 Photos and videos
Ryan Shea retweeted
May tested digital-asset markets once again. Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, renewed inflation pressure, a cautious Fed transition and short-term risk-off sentiment all contributed to a more volatile backdrop for crypto. But as Ryan Shea highlights in our latest monthly update, the longer-term case for digital assets may be strengthening beneath the surface. From Bitcoin’s role as a politically neutral settlement asset to renewed regulatory momentum in the US and growing sovereign interest in digital reserves, crypto is increasingly moving beyond speculation and into the strategic infrastructure conversation. So, should investors “sell in May and go away”? The answer is not that simple. Read Ryan Shea’s full May 2026 crypto market update here: trakx.io/resources/insights/…
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So September. Remember this chart that was doing the rounds a few weeks back?
Trump: Could have the blockade of Iran lifted by Labor Day
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If confirmed (and who knows given how these negotiations are being conducted in the media) this is a big issue for reasons I outlined in the latest @official_trakx crypto monthly update that dropped today 👇 trakx.io/resources/insights/…
BREAKING: Iran announces it is ending all negotiations with the US and vows to "completely" block the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. Iran says it is ending negotiations due to repeated ceasefire violations including Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iran also threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
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Clear as mud.
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Imagine Country X: • Running massive primary deficits • Public debt already at peacetime record highs • Debt servicing costs surging as inflation rises for structural not cyclical reasons (think: Strait of Hormuz closure) Now ask yourself: How does Country X stop bond vigilantes from triggering a sovereign debt death spiral? The textbook answer would be spending cuts or higher taxes. But politically, spending cuts are impossible. And tax rates are already near the top of the Laffer Curve. So what’s left? Yield Curve Control. Cap bond yields. Print if necessary. Suppress volatility. Use financial repression if required: • capital controls • regulatory pressure • moral suasion But there’s a catch. The central bank balance sheet becomes endogenous and there are no enough degrees of policy freedom to maintain low inflation. In fact, higher inflation becomes part of the solution because it erodes the real value of the debt. That’s why this back-up in global bond yields matters, and why it’s structurally bullish for scarce, finite-supply assets. You know the ones!!!! PS: Country X is not one country. It’s most of the developed world.
🌎 Global Bond Yields at Multiyear Highs on Mounting Inflation Risk - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Ever met a campaigning politician who didn't say what you want to hear? Trust me "the plan" will not include public spending cuts but will be based on higher tax rates. Unfortunately though, with the UK at the peak of the Laffer curve (as the IMF recently acknowledged) the Labour government will quickly find out that overall tax revenues won't go up. In fact, they could very well drop. Inevitably, the only way to bring the debt down (in nominal GDP terms) is... 🥁🥁🥁 higher inflation aided by the BoE firing up the printing press.
“Let me say this really clearly. I support the fiscal rules, there needs to be a plan to get debt down”. This comment from Andy Burnham has contributed to this morning's outperformance of the UK bond market (i.e., a larger fall in yields — Bloomberg data below). #UK #economy #markets
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I think we can put quantum compute risks on the back burner for now.
The Google Threat Intelligence Group has detected the first known instance of a threat actor using an AI-developed zero-day exploit in the wild. While the attackers planned a wide-scale strike, our proactive counter-discovery may have prevented that from happening. This finding is part of our new report on AI-powered threats.
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Three government ministers have resigned today in the UK and still Starmer refuses to step down as PM. Talk about an inability to read the room (or the mood of the country after last week's dreadful local election results).
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That strikes me as a very brave assumption, especially the time frame. Remember, hope is not a good investment strategy.
JP Morgan on oil prices/Strait of Hormuz: "A core assumption of our framework is that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another. Our base case envisions the Strait reopens in June—anchored on June 1 for simplicity—following a clear and credible announcement ratified and confirmed by both sides, such as a statement from the UN Security Council."
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Ryan Shea retweeted
Thailand’s rice farmers are getting absolutely hammered right now. Because of the Iran conflict, diesel and fertilizer prices have shot up so high that many are straight-up skipping this planting season. One farmer told reporters she’d lose over $10K if she tried to go ahead. When the world’s biggest rice producers start cutting back, we all feel it at the grocery store soon after. Anyone else seeing the food price warning signs already? Full story: washingtonpost.com/world/202… #IranWar #FoodCrisis #FertilizerShortage #GlobalFoodPrices
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Ryan Shea retweeted
April was another reminder that digital assets are no longer moving in isolation. Geopolitical tensions, energy chokepoints, rising public debt and the weaponization of financial infrastructure are increasingly shaping the macro backdrop for crypto markets. In this month’s update, Ryan Shea explores why Bitcoin’s resilience may reflect more than short-term market momentum: it may signal a growing recognition of crypto as a trust-minimized store of value and settlement layer in a fragmenting global economy. Read the full April market update here: trakx.io/resources/insights/…
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It is Friday after all 👀
Massive US airlift this morning to Gulf. Strong indicator of attack on Iran likely imminent
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Higher US Treasury yields may be a short-term challenge for crypto but what do you think it does to perceptions of US debt sustainability when its over 120% of GDP? You know the meme! coindesk.com/markets/2026/04…
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Wow
🚨🚨🚨🚨FULL STATEMENT: UAE says it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel from May 1. "... Following its exit, the UAE will continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions..."
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Anyone know the historic probability of oil refinery accidents because this does seem an awful lot in such a short space of time?
The global reset is being manufactured. Here's a list of major oil refineries/energy facilities being blown up this month: 3rd April: Russia's Major Oil Export Terminal 4th April: Russia's Crude Distillation Unit 7th April: India's Power Plant 9th April: Mexico's Refinery 14th April: India's Power Plant 15th April: Australia's Energy Refinery 20th April: Russia's Oil Refinery 21st April: India's Oil Refinery 21st April: Romania's Power Plant 21st April: Texas Oil Rig A few of them have been blown up by drones, but most of them mysteriously caught fire.
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You have surely seen his face over recent weeks, but boy was this a big Bitcoin fail "Show me the servers!!" hahahah
The thing about being retarded is that you cannot keep it under wraps forever, eventually it’ll be exposed
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You can defo add him to the list of who Satoshi isn't along with Craig Wright
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