FRB ATL Economist from MN, NM, IL. Simplistic rhythms and vocals that span all the hope and hopelessness of the human condition. My views and not my employer
Stuck on a tarmac, so a great time to post about our newly updated MPRD paper (see x.com/davide_melc/status/195… for a previous summary). What’s new? 1/n
Low net wealth-to-income households repay debt with stimulus checks rather than consume. Debt-price schedules rising with debt explain this, altering the nature of fiscal stimulus, from @gizemkosar, Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher, and @david.wiczer nber.org/papers/w34399
Low net wealth-to-income households repay debt with stimulus checks rather than consume. Debt-price schedules rising with debt explain this, altering the nature of fiscal stimulus, from @gizemkosar, Davide Melcangi, @pilossopher, and @david.wiczer nber.org/papers/w34399
A fun/important little piece with @AtlantaFed colleagues. Our survey center asked firms how exposed their supply chain was to imports. More import-intensive firms expect to raise prices more *and* the more their competitors import,the more they'll raise
atlantafed.org/research/publ…
It raises the idea that competitive pressure will dictate how much tariffs pass through to prices and, forebodingly, even firms who don't get a cost shock could see other firms' cost shock as cover to raise their own prices.
My co-authors making our work sound sooo good. To quote the video, "in our data, we find that households who are more indebted, instead of spending it immediately they use the stimulus to pay down debt."
13/N We are in good company: @ShibataEcon has found similar results on mismatch, and @DavidWiczer - @ElizaForsythe - @ProfLisaBKahn - @fabolange on reallocation.
Software substitutes for labor, while equipment complements labor. The rise of software explains higher markups and lower labor share, from Sangmin Aum and Yongseok Shin nber.org/papers/w32591
It’s no surprise that quits rise in a tight labor market, but the scale of quits in 2021 came as a shock. In this #EconomicInsights article, Ryan Michaels evaluates three explanations for what some call the Great Resignation. bit.ly/4c9mnfu#EconTwitter
Meet our Fellow @CarrilloTudela, Professor of Economics at @Uni_of_Essex! A leading figure in the area of macro labour, Carlos’ research has been used as evidence in UK parliamentary enquiries & informed the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
➡️acss.org.uk/professor-carlos…
As we announced in Cartagena last year, and due to our perception that demand to present papers at the SED meetings has been increasing, we decided to increase the supply (we considered increasing prices ....).
Thus, the first WInter Meetings of the SED will take place... 🥁 1/3
There are lots of theories on why inflation has been sticky in the first quarter of the year. Rents being slow to be reflected in CPI? Some economists pin some blame on the Fed Chair’s pivot in December. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics
This paper is so incredibly interesting for anyone using vacancy data. The overwhelming conclusion is that matching does not happen randomly between the stock of seekers and openings: a few openings get *a ton* of applicants and vacancy dynamics are stock-to-flow.
125 million applications linked to job vacancies and employers reveal evidence of nonsequential search and a huge matching role for labor market intermediaries, from Steven J. Davis and Brenda Samaniego de la Parra nber.org/papers/w32320
1/4: Very happy to have finished a long revision of my paper with Mi Luo on student debt and job choice. We added a model of college enrollment and choice, such that the distribution of debt, assets, skills and education is fully endogenous and lines up with the data.
This paper studies how local institutions and preferences over school attributes shape the impact of education policies in space, from @francesco_ago, Margaux Luflade, and @MartelliniPaolonber.org/papers/w32246