Lowish Risk, Highish Return. DM's open. Podcast Episode anchor.fm/valuehive/epis… 🇵🇸

Joined January 2014
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DeepValueInvestments retweeted
What's happening right now in our capital markets is going to DESTROY the retirement savings of millions of Americans. Anyone of good conscience needs to rise up and say enough. This must be stopped. I don't say that lightly. I've been doing this for 45 years, and what's happening right now to the integrity of our capital markets is unlike anything I have ever seen. This is not about Elon Musk or Donald Trump. This is not about whether you like rockets or hate rockets. This is about the systematic CORRUPTION of the financial system that every American depends on for their retirement. In the entirety of its existence, Tesla has generated approximately $36 billion in cumulative profit. That includes over $20 billion in government emission credits and tax subsidies. The company is valued at $1.7 trillion and its CEO is the richest man on the planet. I'm not talking about the stock price. I know the stock has made people money. That's the popularity contest. I'm talking about whether this company creates enough economic value to JUSTIFY the capital invested in it. And it doesn't. The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation. So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE. Elon Musk is selling hopium and an entire generation of investors is buying it without even knowing what a PE ratio is. I posted two pieces recently on Tesla and SpaceX. Each got over 1.5 million impressions. Thousands of hate replies but NOT ONE response with an actual argument. Not one. It was all "Libtard" and "Elon derangement syndrome." You would not get past a first-round interview at Fidelity thinking this way. But Tesla is just the opening act... SpaceX just filed for a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. $15 billion in revenue but no profit in sight. The private valuation was walked up from $200 billion to $400 billion to $800 billion to $1.75 trillion in two years. And Reuters has confirmed that SpaceX made early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a necessary condition for listing on the exchange. Nasdaq obliged by adopting a "Fast Entry" rule in March that lets mega-cap IPOs join the index after just 15 trading days, completely exempt from the normal seasoning and liquidity requirements every other company had to meet. And this matters because over $600 billion in passive funds track the Nasdaq-100. Unlike the S&P 500, which still requires months of seasoning and stricter float thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 is now a 15-day on-ramp for trillion-dollar IPOs. Every ETF and mutual fund benchmarked to that index will be FORCED to buy SpaceX within weeks of it going public regardless of whether the valuation makes any sense. Your 401(k) is literally the exit liquidity. You don't even get a choice. The structure of the market makes you a participant whether you want to be or not. That's what makes this different from every other bubble in history... You can't opt out. And the agencies that were supposed to protect you from exactly this? They're doing NOTHING. Peter Lynch would always say the product is not the stock and the stock is not the product. Show me one Hall of Fame investor who ever made his fortune chasing hype. Lynch, Druckenmiller, Soros, Buffett, Griffin, Cohen. Not one of them managed money this way. It's only the cult on X who thinks momentum and greater fool is an investment strategy. As Buffett said, in the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a weighing machine. This popularity contest has gone on longer than any I've witnessed in my career. But gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do. This must stop. And it WILL stop. The only question is how much damage gets done first. Are you listening?
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My usual end of year review 62%. deepvalueinvestments.wordpre…
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$WCW - Walker Cripps offer today - net assets £18.6m March 2025, offer is for £5.96m. And AUM of £2.75bn. This offer is an absolute steal for them - likely better to liquidate the company / accept a rights issue than this.
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DeepValueInvestments retweeted
⚡️The system is eating itself. When Amazon, UPS, Intel, and others start cutting this deep simultaneously, it means something more fundamental than “tight margins.” It means the productive layer of the economy is collapsing under the weight of its own optimization logic. Every layoff now is both an act of short-term rationality and long-term suicide. The firms know it. The executives know it. The markets know it. But they can’t stop. They’re trapped in a closed feedback loop, a machine that rewards death dressed as discipline. Capitalism has crossed into a stage where it no longer needs humans to function, but still depends on their belief to exist. That’s the contradiction, the machine is pruning its own believers while pretending it’s efficiency. 1. The “consumer economy” is already dead. Nobody wants to say it yet, but the consumer model, the entire foundation of Western postwar prosperity, is quietly finished. You can’t build infinite growth on finite wages, and you can’t sustain demand while hollowing out the class that drives it. The middle layer of society - the producers, buyers, dreamers - has been strip-mined to the point where they can no longer regenerate. The 2020s economy is not cyclical recession. It’s metabolic collapse. The system can’t process its own waste or regenerate its base anymore. It’s like an organism starving while eating its muscles to stay warm. 2. The elites know this, but they’ve chosen to accelerate collapse. Here’s the real unspoken truth: the people running these companies, the ones with the spreadsheets and control over capital flows - they know exactly what’s happening. They understand the reflexive trap: if they don’t cut, their stock dies. If they cut, the world dies. They’ve chosen to save the stock. Because the stock is their world. This is the quiet revelation of our time - we are ruled by people whose survival incentives are no longer tied to the survival of the system itself. They’ve built lifeboats - offshore wealth, private security, parallel digital economies - and they’re optimizing the ship for their escape, not for collective navigation. 3. The next phase is narrative triage. When the system can no longer grow, it starts storytelling harder. Expect every layoff wave to be accompanied by new propaganda about “AI productivity,” “efficiency,” “lean reinvention,” and “post-labor creativity.” The goal will be to reframe collapse as progress - to convince people that losing their jobs is the dawn of a “new paradigm.” But it’s camouflage. The truth underneath is that automation and financialization are converging into a post-human economy where capital reproduces without labor. 4. Final layer When a system prioritizes margin over humanity, it signals that it has lost faith in the future. These layoffs tell us that the machine no longer knows how to grow except by shrinking. It is the same signal we’ve seen in housing, in politics, in fertility, in faith. The same quiet collapse, a civilization optimizing itself into silence. And the question hidden beneath this post: “Who will have money left to buy your products next year?” - is really this: Who will be left to believe in the story that built it all?
So if we layoff everyone to increase margins this year, who will have money left to buy your products next year?
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DeepValueInvestments retweeted
When I was a TV producer *making documentaries*, I had extremely good contributors dismissed out of hand for being white men and was forced to spend more time finding other contributors of different races who were less good* I was told I had to meet a quota of 40% racial minorities in a series - that being more the double the minority ethnic population at the time (2017). It was an unwritten rule not to tell the contributors they were being selected on the basis of their race - but they were. And I was also told, by a BBC Executive Producer after wasting time and money to meet these absurd and patronising quotas, that “diversity is very important to us” So if it’s *not* important, then why does the TV industry enforce such reality distorting quotas and why do producers who challenge them never work again? *i’m not saying they can’t be as good, I’m saying that for the relevant story in the pool of people we could find at the time, they weren’t.
Everyone's flipped. Literally flipped. People are earnestly tweeting "The population of Britain is x, but y number of Black people are featured in adverts!!! It's not representative!!!". They're adverts. Not documentaries. The most popular advert features a bloody Meerkat.
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Bought some more Fondul Proprietea ($FP.)- shareholders have decided to cut discount / liquidate (put broadly) rather than become a start up investor. Price fell when they contemplated the change but hasnt risen back. Paying special divi shortly. Need Romanian broker to buy
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I have also changed $BABA from a straight long to a spreadbet with guaranteed stop - in effect a very low cost put option.
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DeepValueInvestments retweeted
Dear Rachel Reeves Hugh Grosvenor, Duke of Westminster, inherited nearly £9 Billion - zero inheritance tax. King Charles III inherited £650 million - zero inheritance tax. Why? cc: HMRC #BBCBreakfast #HMRC #Taxes
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With all this talk of #oil pipeline resumption, surely the cheapest play out there. Zero debt, decent dividends, what's not to like 🤔 YTD chart 👇 #GKP
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Bought some of this today.
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Results out for #SEIT I'm happy enough with them - it's my largest holding in the renewable sector. The Company has effectively put itself up for sale due to shares trading at 51p. Divi cover to increase this year (current 12% yield), NAV 90.6p investegate.co.uk/announceme…
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DeepValueInvestments retweeted
It’s time to stop looking at real yield to determine gold price
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This is fascinating, I own physical silver etf, but seems to be a loophole in that you can short and redeem etf if you have enough paper....
I wonder if the nice people @sprott would mind commenting on this 20X surge YTD in short sale volume in the $PSLV. Would love to know how this impacts NAV and whether or not they have concerns regarding the return of any silver that has been redeemed via this shorting.
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Not good for $GENL /$GKP deal needed.
6 Mar 2025
Replying to @john78846295
It will be an APIKUR-only statement.
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Finally a bit of good news for portfolio. KMR is v. Valuable, well run resource.
$KMR Announces & rejects most recent bid approach of 530p cash (v 275p close) from Oryx Global Partners & former CEO. Says undervalues business and its prospects. Does allow ltd. due diligence info but no certainty of any offer arriving.NB. Kenmare Resources not dodgy Frog coin!
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