Of course thatâs your contention. Youâre a first-year analytics intern. You just got finished reading some Sabermetric historianâBill James, probably. Youâre gonna be convinced of that âtil next month when you get to the latest Pitching update, and then youâre gonna be talkinâ about how SIERA is the only "true" measure of skill because it accounts for the complexity of the batted ball profile to CSW rates.
You have no thoughts of your own. Youâre just looking at a movement plot and trying to sound smart. Youâre gonna realize in a couple of years that you spent all that time calculating "Expected FIP" based on a "Skill-Interactive" ghost, when you couldâve just looked at the K/BB ratio and seen the whole picture.
The sad thing is, in about five years, youâre gonna realize youâre not that bright. Youâre gonna be talkinâ about Skenesâ "Expected ERA" while the real experts are just looking at a box score and realizing that if a guy doesn't walk people and he misses bats, he's gonna be fine.
You dropped $100,000 on a Data Science degree to learn how to run a regression on a pitcher's "luck," when you couldâve gotten the same predictive value for five cents in late charges by looking at a K/BB leader board at the public library.