EL NIÑO & THE 2026 HURRICANE SEASON
I've been talking about the developing El Niño for months, and today NOAA officially declared that it's here.
Virtually all forecast guidance suggests El Niño will continue strengthening through the coming months and could become a strong, perhaps even very strong (super), event by the peak of hurricane season (August - October).
El Niño develops when ocean waters across the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than normal. That warming alters weather patterns around the globe, including the Atlantic hurricane basin. One of the biggest impacts is an increase in upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic. Those stronger winds create more wind shear, which can disrupt developing tropical systems and make it harder for hurricanes to organize and intensify.
That's generally good news for hurricane season. In fact, during El Niño years, there have been no major hurricane landfalls (Category 3 or stronger) along the East Coast north of Florida. However, El Niño does not eliminate hurricane risk.
A good example is Hurricane Gaston in 2004. Despite a weak El Niño being in place, Gaston made landfall just south of Myrtle Beach and brought significant impacts to our area.
So while El Niño may stack the deck toward a quieter Atlantic hurricane season overall, it's not a guarantee we won't get hit. We should continue to prepare and stay weather-aware throughout the season.
As I always say, it only takes one storm hitting you to make it a bad hurricane season.