Matt | eventwaves.substack.com
Joined September 2025
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The history of rogue traders who get caught taking illegal risks is interesting
Many 'made it back' at some point and could've gotten away with it. But instead they jump in the hole again
Jun 14
There was someone on Dave Ramsey whose husband took out a $60,000 loan, day traded, made a profit, and then instead of paying off the loan he yolo’d it back into the market on a short position and put them $150,000 in debt
Honestly there are some circumstances where you should be allowed to divorce someone and have them assume 100% of the debts on the grounds they did something unfathomably retarded without your consent
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Jun 12
In light of today’s SpaceX IPO, a story from inside Jane Street on the day of the 2012 Facebook IPO:
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Jun 12
Jannik Sinner has really upped their media game lately
Susquehanna International Group’s prediction market desk took its biggest sports loss making markets during the Knicks’ Game 4 NBA Finals comeback Wednesday, while Kalshi reported a record day for volume.
Susquehanna’s losses, a source familiar with the situation says, were almost entirely on the game-winner market.
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Jun 11
Did Hyperliquid predict the move, or did it partially cause the move?
$CBRS is currently trading closer to $185 than $350
Jun 11
There is no such thing as too much when it comes to one of the most ambitious newsletters that’s ever existed. bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
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Jun 11
I would never SpaceX long-term, but all signs are looking pretty bullish for tomorrow's opening
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Jun 11
Ran a test to see which LLM was best at predicting car auction prices
Gemini 3.5 Flash came in 1st, with GLM 5 coming in 2nd
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Jun 10
Poker staking is probably the model to copy here, right?
Jun 10
Hypothetically, if I were to make an actively managed Prediction Market Fund, would you invest?
I would charge no management fee, but a decent performance fee- ~15% of profits
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Jun 9
This is a fun market to try and price
A little bit of everything in there: volatility, correlation, rule ambiguity, etc.
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Jun 9
In low-liquidity markets, it’s easy to Bill Hwang yourself (bid up your holdings and think you’re winning)
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Jun 8
I think the Gamestop earnings Polymarket was halted
Probably the correct call, as June 9th date would result in an auto-NO
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Jun 7
Any F1 traders/bettors on here?
Why would Kimi only be at 58%? I'd think pole would translate higher at Monaco
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Jun 5
Does the average Hyperliquid perps trader lose more than the average Robinhood options trader?
Seems like maybe, but I'm still trying to learn about Perps
"Duffy said that perps, as they are known, will have little practical use for institutional investors at the same time that they give retail traders access to excessive levels of risk."
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May 31
brier.fyi collected ~1k matched questions from real-money prediction markets vs. non-market platforms: skin in the game seems to still matter, at least some?
May 29
Show me a real $ money market estimate like this.
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Jun 4
The first iteration of this contest was what convinced me there was lots of available edge in prediction markets
Also forces you to find short-term trades (I probably focused long-term too much)
Jun 4
The Hive World Cup runs from June 12 - July 19
It’s a $10,000 prediction market trading tournament, played alongside the actual World Cup
Here’s a thread with more details about how it works: 🧵
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Jun 4
Thought something had happened to PDT partners
Is PDT dead already?
Are we good to start buying everything and wait for noob short sellers to blow up en masse?
$STI
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No other industry is this entertaining
Jun 3
Polymarket believes archrival Kalshi could be spying on its NYC offices, employees: 'Too many coincidences' trib.al/VZJMuSy
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