If investors can believe in NPV5s of levered shitcos, you can believe in yourself. 🙏 🙏
Joined November 2020
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13 Sep 2025
"The schizo science behind 700K Dayrates by 2027"
I wrote an offshore article , would love to hear some thoughts. $VAL $RIG $SDRL #offshore
open.substack.com/pub/ruckin…
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Again, starting monday. Stop crying about oil price pls
Price is a derivative still, untill forced physical reality "Actually" (you sure your min operating inventory minium is the bare minimum? lot can be readjusted shfited albeit being patches) hits & ..
Jun 8
When cycles compress, volatility in range of parameters and parameters themselves is up.
The relevancy of parameters or combinations themselves is exponentionally volatile
Ironically price, the most "holy of indicative parameters" lost relevancy the most
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Oil future pricing is *allowed* to still be a global trade mechanism & reflection of said new physicall shenangians pricing enviorement
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Doesn't China bid oil either way heavily?
China sees
-Oil logistics
-Oil total value (removed from west value add China, relative gain)
etc etc long list
Small example: "If we route from inventories get port filled we get logistical throughput value & routing optionality"
Be careful in thinking oil “crashes” if this fake deal is signed. Trump has been selling SPR this entire time.
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aka the whole logistical lane from mid-east to final product encaptulates 200 mid-logsitcal points all capturing & adding margin
China still functions as a whole-system balance sheet decision machine, so i would imagine a lot of bids would go spot either way regardless of price
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Higher Oil would be deflationary most West is:
-> Opex skewed vs Capex
-> Capex: Skewed to non-oil, oil heavy capex already build
-> Higher oil flows thus into Opex, not Capex
Opex is a redirection structure, cash to oil wont flow to something else. it draws from the "else"
I feel like I know why this is happening.
It's because gas prices are the only thing they can point to in order to say "look! There's no inflation!"
Meanwhile the Saudis don't check inflation and keep flooding the market.
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Oil taking a portion of consumer budget all reflexivity based on "consumer being more mindfull" "consumer choosing to extract value out of remaining" etc etc
So even if the economic reality says, higher oil -> deflationary
Why gov so concerned?
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Because oil = boogeyman
Low gas prices = social control
Low gas prices = social redirection
etc etc
It's used as manipulation of thought of the masses
The West is on all metrics a shit economic society, high gas prices on top make people more aware of it
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Jun 11
USA weak position: Think we're at point Iran replenishment > USA replenishment of active useables (rockets etc) VS China Risk is a hard threshold
USA strong position: Positioned for strikes immensely rapidly
Advantage: Might be positioned more superior to hit for damage
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Jun 11
Hold very strong conviction on the Iran v USA ammo point above.
Not too sure maybe like 30% on the "the momentum USA struck with is important factor, asset relocation is military necessity for Iran now"'
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Jun 11
And just like all times before monitor:
-Israel trying continueing to dismantle Lebanon -> Iran wont close the deal (in quick, im not gonna make this long lol)
Has been best early sign & will prob continue to be
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Jun 11
Don't care to look to deep into it but one thing stands out
-Volatility compression is good for the market makers (aka lot of buyers that buy on expectation vol < higher than stated, so keeping it same or lower makes money)
good for the U.S. govourment as vol feeds into assetp
Good Alexander reveals he believes the US government is intervening directly in the stock market
"I'll make a controversial take that we can play in the future, I believe there's been intervention in US equities and equity futures, and I think Scott Bessent is actively involved. If you've traded war markets like Ukraine or Covid, you get a gappy market, there's not a guy showing up buying the dip in massive size during geopolitical escalation. That's exactly what's happening now."
"It's probably Scott Bessent who was trained by Stan Druckenmiller, who said he likes it when markets don't go down on bad news. So it's probably literally Bessent buying unlimited S&P futures so we can't go down on any bad news. We'll see in a couple years, I think there'll be investigations into this period."
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Jun 11
Asset pricing, aka high vol -> algos start to price in more equity risk premium vs chasing momentum or frontrunning expected returning flows (people who auto invest in some way, 401K or whatever)
Algos like the flows, the flows also remain if vol is low, everyone aligned here 🤔
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Jun 11
Flagged this shit 7 months ago
Jun 10
VanEck flags #tungsten as a 'permanent shortage': China runs >50% of supply and is paying US scrapyards up to 5x to claw back drill bits and tooling. The rally cooled into March but is reaccelerating. Secondary supply can't close a structural deficit.
benzinga.com/markets/commodi…
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Jun 11
Main driver marked for context, rest also very important aka loss of tungsten compress use to recyle in deficit accelerating burn of scrap feed / demand reslience drivers
On phone rn so yea here:
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Jun 11
Incremental new supply split btw, market assumed growth on recycling cagr in line with use (used -> recycled) but recycling bottlenecks at scrap & perpetually dwindles in availability with high loss of tungsten usage skew demand vectors so incremental deficit growth
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Jun 11
Homeboy is running his quant stack & this Iran event is the point with the reflexivity which will decide hundereds of years
The Iranian regime will lose the zero-sum game it is playing.
Any damage it inflicts on our allies in the Gulf will be paid for with funds extracted from Iranian Accounts.
Any tolls paid to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority will be offset by funds extracted from their accounts.
Every attack Iran launches will only deepen the economic and financial consequences it faces.
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Rucking fetard retweeted
⚡️⭕️Trump: We will seize Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure sites in the near future, and we will fully control the oil and gas markets there.
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