Head of commodities macro AI PhD sarcasm. Up 2200x in 6.4 yrs of investing. Posts are speculations - not financial advice.

Joined January 2022
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It’s disgusting that the Liberal Party of Canada can be in government for 11 years, pass 7 anti free speech online bills, appoint 740 of 1,000 judges, 7 of 9 Supreme Court justices, and nearly the whole Senate, yet boomers will never blame them for the terrible shape Canada is in. No, it’s Trump’s fault that per capita GDP hasn’t moved, housing is unaffordable, the debt has doubled, youth unemployment is in the mid-teen percents, and incomes are being taxed more since tax brackets aren't inflation adjusted. Even then, incomes aren't increasing as fast as Canadianflation. Boomers have ruined my country.
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
The GOP is running a larger federal deficit than the pandemic year when we printed $7 trillion It’s no surprise that stocks are up The currency is fake
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Man there's nothing like a glass of wine in a tropical thunderstorm
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @Polymarket
Now instead of accusing companies of stealing people’s data… force them to steal people’s data, and give it to governments..
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
NEW: U.K. advances proposal to force Apple, Google, Signal, & other platforms to scan private content on users’ devices — executives could face prison if they refuse.
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @zerohedge
This is probably what that presser will be: "Warsh is the worst fed chair ever, even worse than Powell. How could he not cut rates, like it is so easy, just cut the rates. Our economy is so great and we're trying to make it even better. It is so simple Kevin, just cut the rate."
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @GavMcCracken
At this point Pakistan should just have AI make a nice graphic of a signing, declare the Strait open and go back to Islamabad while the global economy is left to sort out why drones are still flying and how to pay the US Treasury huge ass fines on crypto transfers to the IRGC…
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @calvinfroedge
I still think its better if they call this a carbon tax.
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The service being provided is making sure that the ship goes through the Strait without an accident
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS IRAN WILL HAVE TO CHARGE FOR SERVICES PROVIDED IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ -FARS NEWS AGENCY
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @GavMcCracken
Per the terms presented by the opposite side it makes no sense for either side sign it. US can't agree to Iran not releasing enriched uranium. Iran might superficially agree to not develop nuclear weapons, but they would surely continue in secret, so that's also no good. If no real impediments to Iran nukes then what was point of war ? US isn't going to agree to war reparations. Iran war already cost US taxpayers probably $100B and that's not even including increased price of gasoline. Not paying another $300B. That would be tactically deployed in midterms to great advantage. US can't agree to exiting all bases in GCC states, nor can it agree to Iran/Oman toll gates. US can't do anything to further empower Iran's position in Gulf or it just sets-up the next chapter of decimation of Gulf state allies energy infrastructure. Israel isn't going to agree to ceasing attacks on Iran proxies. Current Israel power structure is based on wiping-out enemies. Iran is going to continue to purchase drones & missiles ( or parts easily assembled ) from China and continue to maintain an asymmetric warfare advantage. No way with IRGC the most hardline faction in Iran in charge will they agree to disarm.
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Odds Trump goes into the octagon tomorrow after the fight (or before it) and signs the Iran peace deal by himself. I'm putting down 55%, better than a coin flip.
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @DBalazada
So 60 more days of extortion, money laundering, market manipulation, and human life suffering. Ok, got it.
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Haven't checked markets all week... Quick look this morning. $SPX 7,444 - $WTI $82. Quietly taps the sign, again...
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I think Iran is going for the full Jimmy Carter level humiliation on Trump and will drag this out till he's completely destroyed politically except it will be worse because he keeps telling us 5x a day there's a deal
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100% Iran doesn't sign it
What’re the odds that the U.S./Iran peace deal doesn’t get signed tomorrow? 👀
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @GavMcCracken
Bruh…that’s what’s pissed me off the most! My whole f’ing Summer!!!! Been thinking this shit better be wrapped up July 4th…ain’t happening. MOU or no MOU….hell, the MOU might make this shit worse!!!!
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Replying to @GavMcCracken
This deal, if real, is SO much worse than the JCPOA. The JCPOA specified various inspection arrangements and safeguards to nuclear capabilities, Trump’s deal is just like “Iran promises no nukes” 😂
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The thought just hit me... if can go on until mid august, my entire summer will have been me following this in a stressed out state lmao not fun
Looks like I'm better than the Chevron CEO, I've been saying Mid August to late Sept since my Bessie Boy article. But that's for absolute chaos, there are catalyst problems that should start occurring in July, question is if they can be cancelled out by @axios and @barakravid
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Looks like I'm better than the Chevron CEO, I've been saying Mid August to late Sept since my Bessie Boy article. But that's for absolute chaos, there are catalyst problems that should start occurring in July, question is if they can be cancelled out by @axios and @barakravid
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until early September. He is waiting on incorporating the Iran agreement into his view until it is signed and actions are taken according to it
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Did Trump threaten to nuke Iran at the end of his peace deal declaration?
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Gavin (humanist/acc) retweeted
Why has POTUS seemed particularly erratic and unstable this week? It's because he knows the 2026 Lehman moment is coming, and the headline will read a lot like this: ENBRIDGE DECLARES FORCE MAJEURE AT CUSHING STORAGE HUB. God speed to you all.
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