During this period I'm seeing a lot of people stating with absolute certainty that we will have massive gains from here, assuming an average of more than 20x.
This comes from the sole fact that they're comparing this cycle to the 2020/21 one, improperly.
My cold take on the situation:
Probably nourished by the ETF or the new "pro-BTC" political reforms, the majority of market participants think that Bitcoin is ready to climb well above 100K in this cycle.
I've seen plenty of targets, most of them quite unrealistic that, in my opinion, will lead to a severe massacre across retail investors.
I already provided my main thesis for the Bitcoin top and its potential targets in this post:
x.com/IamZeroIka/status/1748…
but one of the most important thing to remind ourselves once again (if it were still needed) is that institutions are not our friends.
They're not here to pump our bags and considering the huge monetary discrepancy they have with us (they operate with gazillions), they also don't need a Bitcoin to soar till 200K like many expect.
At some point, they will just synchronize the algorithms creating huge sell pressure at specific levels, not allowing the price to rise consistently.
Majority are also forgetting about the fact that Bitcoin is up more than 370% from December 2022 bottom, and if you take a look at the chart is absolutely parabolic.
Does this seem "the start of the bullrun" to you or more like a "final phase"?
To me, the second option.
But I know what you're thinking..."Bro, altcoins didn't perform at all, the BTC D. has been in an uptrend and we haven't seen a proper altseason".
Letting aside the fact that we already seen an important rise from them (look at TOTAL 3/OTHERS from 22 lows, mostly related to specific narratives like AI, RWA, BTC etc), expecting an average of 20x on most coins is absolutely unrealistic in my opinion.
But let's make an interesting comparison: USDT D. BTC D.
During the 2020/21 bullrun where we had that double top formation, we had an average USDT D. decline of 50%, which has ignited both runs of BTC and altcoins, as you can see from the drop of the BTC D. occurred from December 20 to May 21 (full altseason).
In this cycle instead, we already had a large drop (average of 50%) on USDT D. from the bottom of 2022 to the 2024 local top.
And while the Bitcoin dominance hasn't dropped yet (it will, don't worry) do you expect another massive drawdown from the USDT D.?
Honestly, this isn't likely given the historical trendline acting as powerful support, and while the BTC D. can drop with the USDT D. remaining flat thus moving liquidity toward altcoins, expecting 20/30xs as an average is highly unrealistic.
"Does this mean no altseason? Rekt?
As I highlighted plenty of times considering all the bullish HTF closures we had on Bitcoin and both TOTAL 3/OTHERS, I'm definitely leading for an altseason (in the most "prehistoric" sense, with a BTC D. drop) but I'm not expecting money thrown on people like in 2021.
Altcoins dilution is real, diminishing returns also.
Take a look at the percentages on OTHERS:
From the bottom to the complacency shoulder we ran approximately 400%.
From these levels to a potential top around 600/700B, we can run a 200%.
Half than before, resulting in higher prices for altcoins but not as much as the general consensus is.
Some charts will pull crazy numbers, but they will be very limited compared to the past and those who are telling you a different story are simply lying to you for engagement purposes.
Better striking for a "safe" 3/5/10x instead of bold expectations.
Don't get sucked into rekt land because you're reading about old comparisons.
Where can the next top of Bitcoin occur?
If I remember well, I already covered this topic back in the past.
But in this post, I will delve more trying to offer you a more detailed and reconstructed analysis.
Big spoiler: there aren't moonboy targets in here.
Bitcoin, from its inception, has outperformed traditional assets, surpassing them in terms of intrinsic features and resilience.
Fueled by a mix of its inherent qualities and speculative fervor, it has produced huge gains during market cycles.
🔸Price performances
If we analyze the performance from each cycle low to each cycle peak, we approximately have:
- First Halving cycle in 2012 -> 57000%
- Second Halving cycle in 2016 -> 11.500%
- Third Halving cycle in 2020 -> 2000%
Crystal clear that despite massive gains we're having diminishing returns.
This is very well valid for the upside but also for the downside with diminishing losses:
- 2014/15 Bear market: -86%
- 2018/19 Bear market: -84%
- 2022/23 Bear market: -77%
🔸Fundamental connotations
The reason behind this is simple: as new money flows into Bitcoin and global awareness grows, the market becomes more mature.
The maturation process also includes the so-pronounced regulations, which I believe are a key part for the global adoption of both Bitcoin and altcoins, at the expense of decentralization.
TradFi companies in fact, are reluctant to join an unregulated market.
Everything that happens before is pure speculation and not real utility-driven demand.
This isn't bad, as most can think.
Without speculation, we wouldn't have astronomical gains and interest in this space which are propedeutic ingredients for realizing the recipe of future growth.
We can suppose that after this big step of regulations, both Bitcoin and altcoins will find their fair value, which is highly unpredictable as many factors come into place:
- National currencies devaluation
- Geopolitical connotations
- True utilities discover
Bitcoin can also achieve mind-blowing targets in the next decade, but if inflation continues to rump up (likely) the Harakiri, as you can imagine, is served.
"But they stopped to print money, Quantitative Tightening has worked out "
No mate, it didn't and even admitting it did, there are other factors that lead to hyperinflation.
Look at the world around you and I'm sure you'll find the right answer.
🔸Price projection
Here we are with the juiciest part of the post:
"Where can Bitcoin top in the next bullrun?"
Premising that nobody truly knows and these aren't financial advice but just a "me-to-you" reasoning, we can make some suppositions.
Given the diminishing returns theory, it is totally fair to hypotesize a Bitcoin top which produces less gain than the previous one.
"But bro, institutions are finally here..they will pump Bitcoin to Pluto."
What most people fail to realize is that institutions don't need a 10.000%.
They're 50% is way different from a retail investors' 50%, it's more than enough.
And this is where the big match will be played.
So what is my "prediction"?
My take is that Bitcoin will top in the yellow area, therefore between 87K and 110K.
Want a more specific target?
Slightly less than 100K, maybe 90/95K..this should do the psychological trick for inducing people believe 100K is absolutely next before the crash.
Can it go higher? Well, maybe.
But I will definitely scale out from the yellow area, no greed allowed.
🔸Final closing
With Bitcoin producing a new ATH, the altcoin space will likely turn once again in full euphoria mode, therefore many "Xs" will be printed.
Printed on the screen for the majority, printed on banks for those who will be wise and grateful for the returns we don't see in any other market.
Because everything will be temporary before another crash will occur, this has to be fixed in your mind as part of market cycles and human psychology.
The next tornado narrative will come out in full force during the past highs..will you be sucked into it or reach financial safety by pressigìng the sell button?
It's all up to you.