There are two big things happening in North Carolina to explain this U.S. Senate race.
1:
@RoyCooperNC is the most popular political leader in recent memory, second only (maybe) to
@JoshStein_ now. Voters just love them.
2:
@SenThomTillis was the only plausible challenger to Cooper, and he was excommunicated from the GOP for insufficient submission to Trumpism.
Tillis's base was always right-leaning suburbanites - all the way back to his days in Huntersville. The problem for Tillis is that those people are Democrats now. They're repulsed by Trump-MAGA, and that movement hates them in return. Places like Huntersville elect Democrats like
@ChristyClarkNC and
@BethHelfrich now, and that's just how it is.
There's still plenty of room to grow among suburban North Carolina, and the Democrats are chalking up plenty of wins there. It's an open question whether Mecklenburg OR Wake will have a single Republican member in the legislature in 2027.
In the gerrymandered distortion field of North Carolina's state legislature, it's possible for Republicans to still hold on to power in that world. But it's probably not possible to win a statewide Senate seat.
NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes
Alaska Leans R to Toss-up
NC Toss-up to Leans D
Ohio Leans R to Toss-up
GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four