Just because the World Cup has started, don't think we've lost focus on Primary Season. 🇺🇸 Dropping some election picks & analysis starting Monday

Pretty incredible that if you have an actual originated edge on the USA vs. Paraguay you can get down $4 million all at the same price.

The U.S. prediction market business gets a bit more crowded: ProphetX Obtains CFTC Approval to Operate America's First Federally Regulated Sports-Native Exchange

These California elections are so weird Yesterday's Los Angeles mayor race election day results has Democrats like @VanJones68 talking in terms of election post-mortem about Spencer Pratt's popularity And Pratt supporters getting excited about his H2H race with Karen Bass Meanwhile Pratt's odds to advance have literally been collapsing all day on Kalshi with odds for Nithya Raman surging

People forget the key principle of moneyball. It’s not about on base percentage, launch angles, etc… it’s about finding market inefficiencies. Once it was discovered that these factors were undervalued, they lose their edge because everyone pays up for them. Maybe the Rays found an inefficiency at the other end. No different than how a stock of a great company might be a great investment at one price but a bad investment at another price.

WTF is Claude Opus going to be capable of on these settings?

Crazy repricing must be going on in futures markets. Sinner was at roughly ~75% odds to win the tournament.

Found an opportunity to hedge my exposure to the Costco hot dog combo on Sundays when I'm shopping and need a light meal

Notable statement from the President clearly endorsing Prediction Markets (Kalshi, Poly US, etc.) This comes about a week after Gov. Walz (D-MN) signed a "first in the nation" bill to ban prediction markets in the state starting in August (though litigation may affect this)

I’m afraid we’ve gone too far as a society But do you think it’s any good???

There is a baseball game in Alaska played at MIDNIGHT under SUNLIGHT 🤯 The Midnight Sun Game in Fairbanks, Alaska is a 120-year-old tradition where baseball is played on the summer solstice, under Alaska’s 24-hour sunlight Since 1960, the game has been hosted by the Alaska Goldpanners, a collegiate summerball team with alumni that includes Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Tom Seaver and many more The game starts at 10 p.m. and usually ends around 1:00 a.m.

As you watch Aaron Rai in the PGA Championship, you might notice he uses iron covers for his clubs and wears two gloves — two habits often viewed as golf faux pas. But both are actually inspiring. Rai grew up in a working-class family in England, where his father sacrificed heavily to support his golf career. When Aaron got an expensive set of irons as a kid, his dad would clean every groove with a pin and baby oil after practice because the clubs meant that much to them. The iron covers became a reminder to appreciate what you have. And the two gloves? Rai started wearing them as a kid during cold-weather golf in England and eventually became so comfortable with the feel that he never stopped. Not gimmicks. Just gratitude… and comfort.

Tonight Jake Paul and MVP set out to revolutionize MMA and fighter pay (they said this all night on the live stream) They did so by… - Building a uncompetitive card - Failing to fill an arena - Putting the fights on streaming - Paying the top fighters big money and the prelim fighters essentially what they would get from the UFC - Having subpar production quality Very revolutionary. Very revolutionary indeed.

Enjoyed picking off bad prices on Kalshi all night for that MVP card S/O Ronda Rousey and Mike Perry

This is almost as bad as when people were betting on Jake Paul to beat Anthony Joshua

Just throwing this out there and maybe I’m crazy but I think Gina Carano probably would have benefitted from training for the armbar

This Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry MVP fight is at least competitive but my gosh it is sad watching two dudes clearly past their prime just throw haymakers, not defend, and then gas themselves out in the first round.

MVP card on Netflix is very meh production quality and boring fights so far. Crazy to have 3 fights end in first round KOs and it to still be boring. Just too predictable and lopsided. Not competitive fights really at all.

If you could start a school and only have one undergraduate degree, this should be it.