Gaza's population has not exceeded its December 2023 level. Most credible estimates show a decline of up to 10% due to deaths, emigration, and other war-related factors.
Pre-war baseline (late 2022 / early–mid 2023): Approximately 2.19–2.23 million (PCBS and other estimates).
Gaza had one of the world's highest fertility rates and a very young population, with steady growth of 2–3% annually before the war.
Most sources put current estimates (2025–mid-2026) at 2.05–2.13 million.
Declines of 100,000 from deaths (~45,000–67,000 reported killed by late 2025, with possible undercounts), ~100,000 emigration, plus indirect effects (disrupted healthcare, lower births).
Some older/outdated CIA World Factbook projections (pre-war growth trends) showed apparent "growth" into 2024, but these were not updated for war realities and have been widely critiqued as misleading.
Population data in active war zones is inherently uncertain (displacement, destroyed records, access issues), but the consensus across PCBS, UN, and independent analyses is net decline, not growth.