Equity Research @Rebellionaire. Primarily covering Upstart, but deep diving other companies too. Posts are not financial advice. #UTPI

Joined June 2021
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My conversation with @Upstart co-founder & incoming CEO Paul Gu @paulxgu, February 23, 2026 $UPST 🏆 (0:00) Introduction (0:26) Co-Founder Experience & CEO Transition (2:14) Upstart's Evolution (5:01) Long-Term Vision & Growth (7:31) Gu's $3.9M Insider Buy (11:16) Model 25 (13:15) 100M Repayment Events (14:31) Upstart Macro Index (UMI) (17:04) Auto & HELOC Margin Potential (20:08) Marketing & Borrower Relationships (23:10) Upstart Capital Partners (25:51) Bank Partner Growth (27:28) Closing Remarks
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Glad we all finally know what’s happening
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I agree with Amy’s second bullet that a merger creates more upside. I’m for a merger in theory. However the point Bradford is trying to make is that it matters a lot what the exchange ratio is. My strong sense is that Tesla is close to an inflection point in profitability, and if that happens I’d expect the stock to revalue upwards significantly. SpaceX is also undervalued according to our valuation model, but not nearly as much as Tesla. So my view is that a hypothetical combination of the two companies at their current valuations would be less favorable than waiting a bit for Tesla’s valuation to move. The main point Bradford and I want $TSLA shareholders to consider is that it makes a huge difference to their upside if $TSLA shareholders get ~40% of the combined entity (that’s what the math would be today) vs. waiting a bit and potentially having 60% or 75% . This exchange ratio matters a lot, even if we think there is still upside at the current level. I mean just imagine if the companies had combined in 2021; Tesla shareholders would’ve had >90% of the combined company! It would clearly have been more advantageous for us to do a deal at those economics than at what could be contemplated today. My view is that Tesla has more significant near term valuation catalysts than SpaceX, and I strongly suspect Tesla investors could get a better deal by waiting for the relative valuations to adjust. I’ll happily stick up for current $TSLA holders by pointing this nuance out, even if it means being labeled as a FUD-spreader by some.
Jun 13
I agree with Alexandra. Never go full Ross Gerber. Rebellionaire has lost the plot. IE They now create the FUD - rather dispel it. The inconvenient truth that contradicts Rebellionaire’s fear peddling: ♦️Volatility is the price of admission to investing in an Elon Musk company. You don’t get a participation trophy for it. ♦️A Merger creates vastly greater upside than the RoboTaxi alone, or Optimus. The three joint ventures are the hint of what is possible. A negotiated share exchange ratio would contain credit for Optimus and RoboTaxi projected revenues. You don’t “lose it”. And your investment dollars remain the same. ♦️Dilution IS coming either way. AI, compute, chip manufacturing require massive amounts of Capital. So choose your Dilution: Vote No on a merger (SpaceXAI just raised Capital on favorable terms) and the Tesla board likely immediately approves a share issuance - and they don’t need your vote for that. Dilution is not bad when it funds growth. Dilution preceded prior Tesla rerates because it funded the growth infrastructure. Prior Tesla capital raises 👇
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EXCLUSIVE: Interview with $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer x.com/i/broadcasts/1kJzDDWZk…
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Even Elon Musk agreed that Tesla is worth a lot more than where $TSLA is trading now. Elon: Robotaxi worth $5 trillion or $1,352/share Also Elon: Optimus worth $25 trillion or $6,760/share Mental gymnastics are causing 🪑holders to support selling for pennies on the dollar
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BREAKING: President Trump says a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed tomorrow, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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Investors: can you follow more than two stocks? The TAM for personal lending is $10 trillion. We believe $UPST is the leader in using machine learning (AI) in lending. They’ve been doing it for 14 years
EXCLUSIVE: Interview with $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer x.com/i/broadcasts/1kJzDDWZk…
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Study the graph. This really is a phenomenal trend. LTV/CAC (which is a function of loss ratio, annual dollar retention and premium per customer) has only continued to rise as growth spend has ramped up in recent quarters. As they select the safest customers better and avoid the worst as well as expand geographies and product availabilities, the LTV/CAC will stay strong as they push even further to the right in investment of customer acquisition. Study the graph. $LMND
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The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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TESLA SHAREHOLDERS don’t like table scraps. We believe $TSLA to be worth $3,640 today. We value Robotaxi at $957 per share today, provided it scales in earnest by next summer. We value Optimus at $2,647 per share, provided it scales a year after that. Don’t sell for $540.
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600 live viewers! Hope you all learned a lot about $UPST 👊🔥

ALT Season 5 Finger Guns GIF by Curb Your Enthusiasm

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Less than an hour to go! Watch live here on X @HenryInvests / @Rebellionaire or YouTube: youtube.com/live/FPEFrs97u4k…
📅 Mark Your Calendars! Friday, June 12th • 8:30 AM PT / 11:30 AM ET • I'll sit down with @Upstart $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer LIVE 🚨 Have a question you'd like to ask Andrea? Drop it below and I'll bring the best to the stage 🎙️ Watch live right here on X @HenryInvests or @Rebellionaire (X & YouTube) 🦁🦁
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One of my favorite books. Excited to watch SpaceX $SPCX IPO today while Elon Musk becomes the world’s first trillionaire. “The only rules are ones distracted by the laws of physics. Everything else is a recommendation.”
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📅 Mark Your Calendars! Friday, June 12th • 8:30 AM PT / 11:30 AM ET • I'll sit down with @Upstart $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer LIVE 🚨 Have a question you'd like to ask Andrea? Drop it below and I'll bring the best to the stage 🎙️ Watch live right here on X @HenryInvests or @Rebellionaire (X & YouTube) 🦁🦁
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@davegirouard @paulxgu don't forget to tune in 😎
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Tomorrow at 11:20AM EST, @HenryInvests sits down with @Upstart CFO Andrea Blankmeyer for an exclusive live interview. We’ll be talking Upstart, AI lending, the road ahead, and what investors should be watching from here. Live on X and YouTube.
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3 hours apart btw 😂😂
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🚨 TRUMP ON IRAN: I HAVE, AS PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, CANCELLED SCHEDULED STRIKES AND BOMBINGS AGAINST IRAN THIS EVENING.
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📅 Mark Your Calendars! Friday, June 12th • 8:30 AM PT / 11:30 AM ET • I'll sit down with @Upstart $UPST CFO Andrea Blankmeyer LIVE 🚨 Have a question you'd like to ask Andrea? Drop it below and I'll bring the best to the stage 🎙️ Watch live right here on X @HenryInvests or @Rebellionaire (X & YouTube) 🦁🦁
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Jun 10
The carnage in the #uranium sector over the last 2-3 weeks is unbelievable. $ccj $nxe $uec $uuuu getting absolutely destroyed while fundamentals continue to improve month after month Every catalyst seems to get ignored for reasons I can’t seem to comprehend I imagine a lot of the selling is getting tied to other metals/commodities also getting crushed like gold/silver which is putting a drag on passive etf flows If the price of gold was making new highs every month and the mining companies kept falling you would have no problem adding more shares Uranium is the same thing right now, as long as the fundamentals keep improving and long term pricing keeps squeezing higher there is nothing to do but accumulate cheap shares and wait for the market to wake up to the reality that higher prices are necessary for secondary mines to come onboard so the supply deficit doesn’t grow far beyond the 2.5b lbs we are short into 2045
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