I got a lot of shit for saying that
$SHX looks like a new coin. Instead of people coming and educating me, I was made fun of even when I made it clear that I hadn't done my research. Doesn't seem like a great community. Anyway here's the well researched thesis and chart update:
TLDR: I believe
$SHX has the product, the partnerships and a narrative it can ride so yes it has the possibility of going to $0.5 or even $1 (if the cycle extends into late 2026/early 2027).
First, let's talk technicals:
My analysis on the monthly chart tells me that
$SHX has a habit of hitting the 4.618 fib level (which is generally considered a good level for profit taking when a token enters price discovery). SHX recently hit that level at $0.04 and is now retracing. How low will it go? Find out at the bottom of this article. It perfectly coincides with the september dump narrative.
Since the 4.618 take profit level has been proven true, how high can it go this time. Wave theory suggests it'll go up until $0.5 (at least according to the bitmart and mexc charts). Once
$SHX has a big exchange lsiting where the orderbooks are healthier to see a better price action, targets will become much more precise.
Next, Let's talk about the narrative (the fake why):
Just like
$XRP,
$XLM,
$VELO and others, SHX is already playing an important role in transforming the cross border payment system. And honestly, I get the importance of it having experienced the pain point they're trying to solve firsthand.
Bank to Bank transfers via ACH is a headache you wouldn't want when you're trying to send money to your parents who live in a different country. Asking your parents to operate crypto wallets is like explaining how the internet works to a 2 year child (especially to parents in third world countries). Oh, and ACH is costly!
I can't even imagine what it must be like for the B2B transactions (slow and expensive is death in business terms).
As
@ProjectSHX pointed out, SHX is the preferred partner of
@NachaOnline. This partnership is very important to prove that ACH can be innovated on for automated, secure settlements, reducing reliance on slow legacy systems and expanding into embedded finance and pay-by-bank services. -
x.com/ProjectSHX/status/1959ā¦
Yeah okay okay I understand most of you would've heard this narrative talk all this while. But let's dive into the numbers backing this narrative:
1. Total payments processed by ACH in 2024 - $86.2 trillion
2. Average daily ACH transaction value in 2024 - $3.2 trillion
3. Late payments cost to global economy in 2024 - $40 billion
4. Wanna know how much banks earned (kept in their pockets) due to overdraft fees (for free basically)? - $5.8 billion
All of this points to the simple fact that banks aren't going to innovate out their cash making machine but if businesses start using
$SHX to transfer value from crypto to banks, they can settle transactions faster and for much lesser cost.
Now let's talk about the tokenomics and distribution (the real why)
In terms of holder distribution, one first glance, it might seem it's highly centralized, with one dominant addressā"Stronghold Deployer 1" (0xB8ce...a369)ācontrolling 98% of the supply (98 billion tokens, ~$2.77B value) but as we saw earlier, that's by design since there was no ICO and these coins will be released in the next 5 years via airdrops/rewards/incentives or liquidity pools.
Out of the remaining 2% supply, 50% of that is held with exchange wallets such as:
1. Sushiswap
2. Uniswap
2. Kraken
3. Coinbase
4. Binance
5. Moonpay and a bunch of smaller one's
6. Individual whales/large wallets
Rest of the 50%? with retail ofc.
According to all of this,
$SHX has been flying under the radar and is severely underpriced for all the whales and exchanges to dump currently.
But while that's good, it does signal that the Stronghold team hasn't done a better job at marketing themselves which to me seems like a potential risk since what if they're unable to attract larger retail demand when it arrives in the upcoming months.
Sure price is higher but it's also a sign of whale buying (exchanges in particular have been buying for future listings -
@MindCrypto_'s account does a pretty good job at flagging these transactions)
So are whales and exchanges just engineering a quick pump and dump to show buying activity before the dump?
Or are the whales actual businesses like IBM just buying up for institutional usage and don't care about retail euphoria. If that's the case, then it makes sense to keep your take profit bids for $1. Because at $1
$SHX will be at a mere $5.3 Billion mcap which is easily achievable once trillions enter the markets driven by institutions, not retail.
I don't know the exact answer. But this is solid enough for me to add this to my portfolio. I'll be looking for buying levels $0.024.
Will be interesting to see how this community develops.
P.S If you'd like this kind of analysis on any other coins, feel free to comment below.
Appreciate you for taking the time to read this.