I generate PioneerAlpha.org with $TSLA and AI stocks. Founder of Pioneerlands.org🚀Survive and Thrive in Age of AGI. 🤖YouTube.com/@JoBhakdi 🫡

Joined November 2011
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the fact is - both Anthropic and OpenAI (as well as Grok and Cursor) are highly unorganized startups who "wing" it. There is no KYC, SOPs etc. - because it's simply not possible, given their growth and development speed. It's total chaos. This clashes with the scale, valuation and societal impact of what they are doing. What will happen? Not sure. Chaos. Also, don't forget: there is a HUGE effect lag with LLMs. At any given power / IQ stage, reaching 50% of their actual potential has probably a 5 year lag (harness construction and impact pattern discovery etc.). I estimate we currently use about 2% of the 2025 LLM's potential.
Game theory from here is super interesting: Original Mags (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) now have a serious non-zero opportunity to tank the frontier labs. Go to the government, kneecap the labs’ motion of putting the latest models out in the wild, become the trusted gatekeeper between the labs and the public at large (including internationally) by having the labs go through their clouds (AWS, GCP, Azure) and implement strict KYC to seal the deal. The frontier labs should have seen this coming years ago and implemented a robust KYC for just this moment. The fact they didn’t is kind of concerning. Why did they not do it? Best guess is because it would have changed the run-rate revenues (downward) which would have then changed funding dynamics - lower valuations, more dilution, less secondary. A valuation reset may happen now anyways, except the labs may end up with less control and more restrictions at the end of it. At the same time, everyone is already clamoring about token prices of the old models from the labs anyways… This couldn’t be a better setup for open source and neoclouds. Big question is can they meet the moment? There are too few of them and their progress seems sporadic at best.
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It’s weird that I get triggered when people talk on the phone without saying anything. It makes me so angry, I don’t know why. I also can understand all human languages when it comes to that. I can tell by the tone and cadence that no information is transmitted. Why does it trigger me so much.
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Good insight from David Sacks. The highly trusted partner is Amazon, to my best knowledge. Very helpful clarification by David and clear instructions for Anthropocene how to get the Fablewesen back into the wild
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Imagine you work for over a decade and all you get are $2Bn 🥲
Shocked that she only has 0.1% equity. She joined SpaceX in 2002. I would have expected at least mid single digits, even after dilution.
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TAX THE TRILLIONAIRES! Here is why: If California would tax Elon 50% of his wealth, that would add $550 BILLION for the California budget (instead of going to Mars and build infinity intelligence, which is useless anyway because no one needs intelligence, duh). This could make a HUGE difference for Californians. Experts calculated that within 5 years, the state could * buy 2 homeless people a bed (shared) * complete 1 mile of high speed train tracks * buy 50 million pre-signed mail-in ballots, including on-time delivery for the next 2 elections. That's why we need a trillionaire tax. NOW.
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I was wondering where today’s Iran peace deal was… I need my daily dose
BREAKING: President Trump says a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed tomorrow, immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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The odds that advanced AI models will be publicly accessible in the future is exactly zero %. Within the next 3 years, both China and the US will make it standard procedure that we won't have access to them. It's obvious. That also means that research will be massively reduced, because the commercial incentive will be smaller (though still high). That is probably a good thing, because ASI is guaranteed to kill us all (actually). You don't need to be Einstein to figure that out. Magically, we are therefore moving into some sort of equilibrium where very powerful open source models like DeepSeek will allow us to engineer advanced harness systems that will far exceed AGI, starting probably next year; but the massive model capability explosion (200 IQ etc.) will be drastically delayed. Weird how this stuff works itself out. This does NOT avoid the ASI risk, but it changes the trajectory from 2035 or so at the current speed to 2100 in the delayed trajectory (VERY rough estimates). Hopefully enough time to figure out how to deal with it - but for now, we can relax a little bit and focus on saving human civilization.
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I am 90% sure that the big secret of Anthropic's outperformance is actually something VERY interesting and important. My suspicion is that it is fundamentally the harness they constructed, not the model. It's the same principle that makes 5 random athletes infinitely less efficient than 5 Navy Seals, even though the substrate is similar. It's about what you tell the model, how you organize it, and how you design collaborative systems. In other words: agent prompting. If this is true, there are vast consequences
‼️🚨 BREAKING: Amazon researchers snitched to the US government about jailbreaking Fable 5 and Mythos 5, forcing Anthropic to immediately shut down worldwide access. A security export control directive from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick enforced the action. Anthropic is fighting the directive and calls it a misunderstanding. This isn't the first clash. The Trump administration had already tried to get Anthropic to pause the release of its latest models before this directive landed.
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Working the whole Saturday on Pioneerlands Daily, the Pioneers' new intellectual guiding system. I feel now that AI is 90% there. It's 90% as if I had a team of 130 IQ editorial and coding employees that work at 100x the speed. There are still dumb mistakes and annoyances, but it is workable. Claude Design is the key for advanced design. Lovable for coding. Grok and DeepSeek (as part of Draupnir agentic system) for writing.
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Interesting pattern: Sam and OpenAI had a total lead in AI. Then, Sam became delusional and went on a world tour spreading his concerns that AI will kill us all (aka, I-am-God masturbation porn). Then, inevitably, OpenAI fell behind because they found themselved to be too awesome to actually work. Anthropic took over, and now Dario has the same problem. So my prediction is: Anthropic is going down. Elon for some reason isn't prone to this emotional fallacy (so far), which positions Grok and Cursor well to dominate.
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There is only one way to stop the madness: Germany. When the AfD wins - potentially in 2027, with some bad luck in 2029 - Germany is the only country that can force the EU to restructure into a lean free trade zone without the Karen hell that is Brussels. Germany has the power to force all relevant contracts to be adjusted and the central commuter to be dismantled, simply by threatening to exit and pulling funding. The key 🔑 will be a decisive AfD victory and the avoidance of treason on the AfD side , which I think is possible
Today, the European Union took a major step forward. All Member States agreed to open the first accession negotiations cluster with Ukraine and Moldova. At the first Intergovernmental Conference on Monday, we will open the cluster on fundamentals; the backbone of the accession process. It covers the core values and principles on which the EU is built, from the rule of law to strong democratic institutions. This is a recognition of the determination, courage and hard work shown by both countries in advancing reforms, even in the face of immense challenges. And a signal that the EU’s offer of peace, stability and opportunity is unmatchable. Enlargement is a strategic choice. By bringing our nations closer together, we strengthen peace, security and prosperity across our continent. In a world marked by growing uncertainty, a larger European Union is in our common interest. Enlargement remains one of the EU’s greatest success stories and our best investment in our shared future.
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They are just parking.
Cybercab in Houston It’s just for show, it will never be Robotaxi 😏
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Pocahontas is wrong. The average American household would NOT have to work 11 million years for that. Even if they worked for infinity, they can’t build reusable rockets. I am sorry the white man stole Pocahonta’s tipi and appreciate her trauma , but she has to stop being stupid and deceptive.
Elon Musk just became the world's first trillionaire. The typical American household would have to work more than 11 MILLION years to make Elon Musk's level of wealth. We need a wealth tax.
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The german state has now started a widespread crackdown on people waving or carrying German flags. As in the official German flag 🇩🇪. It is now considered right wing extremism to wave your countries flag. Let that sink in.
„In meinem Land laufe ich mit meiner Flagge wohin ich will.“ Ein Mann wird in Berlin von der Polizei daran gehindert mit der Deutschlandfahne rumzulaufen. Zur Erinnerung: Diese Fahne steht für „Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit“.
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East German state TV says they “don’t do programming for right wing extremists.” “Right wing extremists”, aka AfD voters, make up ~40% of the population in East Germany, with another 20% or so strong fly considering becoming “Right Wing Extremist”. That means state TV has no problem getting 60% of their budget from “right wing extremist”, but refuse to do programming for them? FIRE them and SHUT DOWN this fraudulent and abusive state TV system.
Jun 13
Ach so. Aber Geld von "Rechtsextremen" geht klar.
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Sweden (and Germany) is so egalitarian that every trillionaire automatically becomes a billionaire. Let that sink in!
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Also, you get about 1 million burgers for the price of 1 burger in Norway 🤣😂
This Norwegian kid visiting the US for the World Cup is straight-up floored by In-N-Out. 😂 From struggling through the order (“three burgers… only bread and meat!”) to devouring it and calling it “Delicious!” — pure joy. Europeans come here and realize America’s high-quality life isn’t a myth. Best burgers, friendliest service, and freedom fries. 🇺🇸🍔
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Gavin must have some sort of referral deal with Greg. There is no other explanation.
Thanks, Elon. And thanks to you too, Gavin.
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