The Trump Administration Thinks We’re Imbeciles nationalreview.com/corner/th…

If you could order up the perfect mid-June day, it would look a lot like today. Mostly sunny skies, highs near 80, low humidity and light breezes earn today's weather a 9 out of 10 from us. The second half of the week is a different story, with temperatures pushing into the 90s Thursday and the potential for strong thunderstorms. Latest forecast at capitalweather.com Photo by Jeanne Stuart McVey

My Analysis @ACMideast regarding the agreement between US and Iran: The end not just of war, but also of a strategic assumption about regime change in Iran A US-Iran agreement will likely bring to an end, at least for the foreseeable future, the long-standing expectation in parts of Jerusalem and Washington that sustained pressure could lead to regime change in Tehran. From Israel’s perspective, the conditions appeared unusually favorable for such change. Iran was confronting significant internal and external pressures, while Israel operated with unprecedented military freedom and the support of the world’s most powerful military ally. But the announced agreement suggests a fundamental reality: The campaign that many hoped would weaken or even destabilize the Islamic Republic will instead conclude with the regime intact, strengthened, and formally engaged by the United States. This would not represent a tactical setback. It would amount to the collapse of a broader strategic assumption: that coordinated American and Israeli pressure could generate conditions conducive to fundamental political change inside Iran. Instead, the likely outcome is the opposite. The Iranian leadership could emerge from its most significant test in decades having demonstrated resilience, retained control, and shown a willingness to absorb substantial costs while preserving core regime interests. Such an outcome is likely to reinforce the confidence of the ruling elite rather than weaken it. Moreover, Tehran stands to gain several important advantages: economic relief, renewed diplomatic legitimacy through engagement with Washington, and a perception that American leverage over Iran has diminished relative to what it was at the outset of the cris Assuming maritime routes remain open and regional escalation is contained, negotiations will inevitably return to the nuclear file. It is already apparent that neither Iran’s missile program nor its network of regional partners is likely to be central to any near-term agreement. Nonetheless, unresolved issues, particularly those related to Lebanon and regional security arrangements, could still complicate implementation The broader strategic consequence is that today’s decision reduces the likelihood of renewed large-scale conflict in the immediate future while simultaneously strengthening the Iranian regime’s regional and international position. It also risks increasing Israel’s diplomatic isolation on the Iran issue, particularly as Gulf Arab states increasingly prioritize de-escalation, economic stability, and a durable ceasefire over continued confrontation. From Tehran’s perspective, such a result would constitute a significant strategic achievement. Iran would preserve critical strategic capabilities, maintain its influence across multiple theaters—including the increasingly interconnected Lebanese and Iranian fronts—and secure meaningful economic breathing space. Just as importantly, it would retain its ability to threaten vital maritime chokepoints and global energy flows, a source of leverage that remains central to its regional strategy. The broader lesson is that operational success does not automatically translate into strategic success. Military pressure imposed significant costs on Iran, but it did not produce the political transformation that some anticipated. Ultimately, Iran’s ability to impose risks on global markets, combined with the practical limitations of eliminating or removing its nuclear infrastructure through force alone, pushed all sides toward negotiation.  The result is an agreement that underscores a growing divergence between Washington and Jerusalem. While Israel may continue to view such an arrangement with deep skepticism, its ability to prevent the outcome appears increasingly limited. For the United States, the agreement may represent a pathway to regional stabilization. For Israel, it may be seen as confirmation that military achievements alone were insufficient to achieve the broader strategic objectives that guided the campaign from the outset. #IranWar‌

Tonight on @TheLeadCNN with host @CNN’s @jaketapper discussing what is and is not in the MOU between the United States and Iran Video: @JeffStorobinsky

“The most dangerous thing for Vladimir Putin is actually signing some sort of ceasefire or peace deal,” says @ACEurasia’s John Sipher. “Because, how does he then sell back home this strategic disaster?”

My latest from #InflectionPoints for the @AtlanticCouncil on this past "weekend to remember" atlanticcouncil.org/content-…

On Sunday evening, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached an agreement to end the war with Iran. Atlantic Council experts share their insights on what we know—and still don’t know—about the deal. THREAD 🧵 atlanticcouncil.org/dispatch…

IRAN'S MEHR SAYS THE 14-ARTICLE DRAFT MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U.S. INCLUDES: * COMPLETE LIFTING OF U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE WITHIN 30 DAYS *WOULD SUSPEND SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL AND PETROCHEMICAL SALES * IMMEDIATE, PERMANENT HALT TO WAR ON ALL FRONTS, INCLUDING LEBANON * REOPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHIN 30 DAYS UNDER IRANIAN ARRANGEMENTS * NECESSITY FOR U.S. AND ALLIES TO PRESENT RECONSTRUCTION PLANS FOR IRAN AMOUNTING TO AT LEAST $300 BILLION *ENVISAGES 60 DAYS OF TALKS ON NUCLEAR ISSUES AND FULL SANCTIONS LIFTING *DRAFT EXCLUDES IRAN'S MISSILE PROGRAM AND SUPPORT FOR RESISTANCE GROUPS FROM FINAL TALKS *CALLS FOR RELEASE OF $24 BLN IN IRANIAN BLOCKED FUNDS DURING TALKS *HALF OF IRAN'S $24 BLN BLOCKED FUNDS MUST BE AVAILABLE BEFORE FINAL TALKS START *FINAL IRAN-U.S. AGREEMENT WOULD BE ENDORSED BY U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION

Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take. This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing. Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump. As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war. Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force. If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran's nuclear ambitions out of reach, I'll acknowledge it. It's just too early to make that judgment. Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal. But in some ways, Trump's deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump's approach. Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump's and Netanyahu's interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue. Trump's claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel's campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon. So let's hope we see the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump's team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland. We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard. With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony. @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @SecRubio @SteveWitkoff @SEPeaceMissions @drpezeshkian @mb_ghalibaf @araghchi

Joined @NPR's @davidfolkenflik this morning to preview the G7 summit in France. Iran, AI, inflation, and yes, imbalances (wonky but critical), all on the agenda. npr.org/2026/06/14/nx-s1-585…

Wendell Pierce was brilliant. Go see “Othello” at the Shakespeare Theatre Company before it closes.

George Washington is often called the indispensable man. If there were ever an indispensable historian of the American Founding, it was Gordon S. Wood. Mount Vernon mourns the passing of Dr. Wood, a towering historian and generous friend of our institution. To reflect on his remarkable life and work, listen to Dr. Wood's 2017 conversation with Mount Vernon President & CEO Doug Bradburn about his lifelong career as a scholar of early America. Access the podcast: bit.ly/447d5Oq

As the US and Iran close in on a memorandum of understanding, the US should maximize its leverage for nuclear talks by maintaining its military footprint and coordinating with European and Gulf allies, writes @ACMideast’s @jpanikoff. Read more ⤵️ bit.ly/3S9kH0c

Welcome Washington, DC to our Swedish Midsummer celebration by the Washington Monument tonight. 🇸🇪🇺🇸

The Peru election is really interesting! There’s only around a thousand votes separating the two candidates, who are from far opposite ends of the political spectrum. Follow @ACLatAm for more! reuters.com/world/americas/w…

David Hockney has died. I was lucky enough to see his exhibition in Paris this past year. He leaves a formidable legacy.

📅 June 17 | 🕞 3:30 p.m. ET Join @ACScowcroft's Transatlantic Security Initiative for an #ACFrontPage with @SenatorShaheen and @SenThomTillis to discuss the upcoming @NATO Summit in #Ankara. Register today ➡️ bit.ly/4ejAiD0

🎥 Check out highlights from the 2026 Global Energy Forum in Washington DC. #ACEnergyForum #GEF2026

Thanks to @BloombergTV, @kaileyleinz, & @JMathieuReports for having me on this afternoon to talk about the latest re Iran, the U.S., Israel and where things go from here. m.youtube.com/watch?v=DUOU81…