The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

The SpaceX IPO is the most brazen retail fleecing in modern market history. NASDAQ has REWRITTEN the index rules specifically for this listing. The 10% minimum free float requirement: gone. The 3 to 12 month seasoning period before index inclusion: cut to 15 trading days. Companies with small floats can now be weighted at 3x their actual float. Translation: every passive index fund, every 401k, every pension is about to be force-fed SPCX whether they want it or not. And what exactly are they buying? Class A shares carrying ONE vote each, while Musk holds 93.6% of the Class B super voting shares at TEN votes each. That gives him 85.1% of voting power on a 42% economic interest. He cannot be outvoted. He cannot be removed. CEO, CTO and board chairman simultaneously. For reference: Zuckerberg controls 61% of Meta. Buffett 35% of Berkshire. Musk: 85.1%. SpaceX is also claiming "controlled company" status, exempting it from needing a majority of independent directors. Shareholders waive the right to a jury trial. They waive the right to class actions. Mandatory arbitration only, courtesy of an SEC rule change pushed through on a party line vote last September. $1.75 trillion valuation. $80 billion raise. Largest IPO in history. The rules of the game were quietly rewritten so one man could extract maximum capital from retail while answering to no one.

BREAKING: The 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, attracted a record $1.03 billion in inflows on Tuesday. At the same time, the 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, posted -$230 million in outflows, the largest daily outflow since late March. Furthermore, the 3x leveraged long Nasdaq 100 ETF, $TQQQ, saw $161 million in inflows, the highest daily intake since March 31. In other words, $SOXL inflows were more than 6 times larger than $TQQQ inflows, as investors concentrated their bullish bets in semiconductors. $SOXL is now up 354% since the March 30th bottom, the largest 31-day increase since the fund launched in 2010. This comes as the semiconductor sector, $SOX, is up 68% over the same period, the 3rd-best 31-day performance on record. The run in semiconductor stocks is truly historic.

This is the biggest week.

The Anthropic mini IPO is unfolding and you already missed a 15x return The stock is named VCX by Fundrise and just went up 1,500% in 5 days on the NYSE It’s a fund holding: - Anthropic = 21% - OpenAI = 10% - SpaceX = 5% - Databricks = 18% - Anduril = 7% $VCX has a NAV of $19 per share. This morning it just traded at $312. That means the market is valuing a $650 million fund at $5.4 billion 🤯 Investors are paying an 8x premium just to touch these companies. Why? Because the most important companies being built right now refuse to go public. And people are so desperate for exposure that they will pay almost anything to get it. The private markets are sitting on trillions in value that public investors have been locked out of and this stampede tells you everything about how much hype there will be around these IPOs. I hope this speeds things up

X is a covert naturalistic observation space for psychologists, now more than ever before. “when people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.” ― Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow 'Authority bias' - When a well-established person writes, readers often assume the information is credible based on the author's reputation, not the content. This is a "mental shortcut" that saves time, making people less likely to critically evaluate the data. 'Seduction of complexity' - The mind loves complexity because that's how it justifies all its useless thoughts and all your pain and suffering. 'Seizing and Freezing': People will seize upon any quick answer that provides comfort and then freeze (close their minds to new information) to prevent the doubt from returning. 'Conjecture/Speculation': The act of forming a theory without firm evidence. 'Mott-and-Bailey Doctrine' This is a shared strategy in debate: The Mott: A modest, easy-to-defend, and proven fact (the "stronghold"). The Bailey: A much more controversial, unproven, or speculative claim (the "open ground"). The speaker conflates the two so that if you attack the speculative claim, they retreat to the proven fact and act as if you are denying reality. 'Priming' In psychology, the proven fact acts as a prime. It sets a baseline of trust. Once the brain has categorized the source as "truth-teller" based on the first verifiable sentence, it stops processing the subsequent sentences with the same level of skepticism. "Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced with reason." - James Randi Narrative first without supported data is what captures attention and is grasped by readers. It appears substantive data first is so tedious. - me. Add to this the X algo and bots reply guys (with no mutual followers of any credence) promulgating the conjecture and fallacies, and you end up where we are right now.

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit. If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets. Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK. We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace. This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT. The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund. Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off. I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely. Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.