The deal taking shape with Iran is significantly worse than the JCPOA. I don't say that lightly. Here is why:
1) The JCPOA was one comprehensive, binding agreement. This is a two-stage interim framework. End the war now, then 60 days of nuclear talks. We are trading hard limits for a promise to keep talking.
2) Missiles and proxies are gone. The leaked 14-point MOU (Mehr, IRNA) keeps Iran's missile program and its support for Hezbollah off the agenda entirely. The standing critique of the JCPOA was that it left those out. This deal does the same and calls it progress.
3) No handover of enriched uranium. Under the JCPOA Iran shipped almost its entire stockpile out of the country. Here Iran keeps roughly 400 kg of 60% material. Its fate is punted into the 60-day window. That is a moratorium, not a rollback.
4) The enrichment pause is unsettled. Trump wants 20 years. Iran floated 5 (CNN). The JCPOA locked in 15 years of caps with IAEA cameras and 24-day inspection access. We have none of that on paper yet.
5) We pay up front. Oil sanctions lifted. Around $24 to $25 billion in frozen assets released, part of it immediately. Reconstruction figures up to $300 billion floated in Iranian press. In return Iran gives an interim ceasefire and a promise.
6) Hormuz reopens on Iran's terms. Araghchi says the strait will not return to how it ran before the war. Service fees, Iranian arrangements. This war handed Iran more leverage over the strait, not less.
We went to war and may walk away with less than Obama got in 2015. Caveat: these terms come from leaks and Iranian media. Nothing is signed. But if it signs as described, it is the weaker deal.