The Biden's Choice
Born in the USSR, I rarely think my personal experience is of any help to understand American politics. Yet this times it is: my Soviet/Russian experience tells me, in no uncertain terms, that people do not relinquish power on their own. They always must be pushed out.
When I was a kid, three successive leaders of the USSR died in the office. Now we know that they were spending their last months in and out the ER, sometimes barely understanding what is going on. Yet each of them clung to power until their last breath.
When I was a student at the Math department at the Moscow State, the best department in the best Soviet university, my unit ("kafedra") head was in his late 60s, but in a very poor health. He barely came to department meetings, but clung to his (very small) power until his last day. His replacement in 2001 was an energetic 68 y/o, with his best paper published in 1963, who stayed at the helm until 2015, to be replaced by another veteran...
In other units in my student years, the heads were in their 80s and 90s - they were founding fathers of the department forty years before that. And this is in mathematics, where the prime years come very early. Need I mention that the president of the Moscow State is in his fourth decade in power? Not coincidentally, the university is no longer a leader in the country, ceding the top spot after a long century.
The head of СEMI, a big and important academic institute in Soviet times, my first job as an economist, took office when he was 48 and left it at 80. Over the years, he has deftly defeated every single attempt to have a change at the helm. Back three years ago, he told me "for so many years I thought I was looking for a successor, and failed". He is my elder friend and did a lot of great things, but he did run his institute to the ground in the process.
I've been involved for years with my high school, and the same story happened there as well. The same director who saved our school back in late Soviet years and steered it through the difficult 1990s has become uncapable to run it after three decades at the helm. Gravely ill and unable to be involved in actual governance, he clung to the office - and ended up forced out amid a horrible scandal because, unable to do his job properly, let major abuse of kids to flourish under his nose.
In Russia, the heir of the USSR, it's everywhere. It's not only about Putin, whose 25 years reign resulted in a fascist regime, hundreds of thousands killed in a criminal war, and a million refugees from Russia alone. In every office, small and big, everyone clings to their power. A criminal case and a heart attack is a typical reason why a long-term leader of a Russian organization steps down.
As a student of authoritarian regimes, I know that this is not about Russia specifically. This is about archaic, hierarchical regimes. They all cling to power until it is too late. They never give way on their own. Benedict XVI, the Pope who relinquish his office voluntarily, the first to this in 600 years, was an amazing exception.
I think President Biden was a very, very good president. Yet I do not believe he will recognize that he needs to give way to another Democratic nominee on his own unless the pressure is unbearable. At least, this is what my personal experience tells me.