Looking forward to this conversation! Many thanks to @anissagardizy8 for the invite!

First-try Gold, team smaller than a single hyperscaler standup - join us.

Semi-Analysis's @JeremieEO on @tbpn last week: "2025 was an insane year for the (data center) leasing market, and everything points to 2026, 2027 just accelerating." Towards the end of 2025, Applied Digital $APLD, Cipher $CIFR, and Hut 8 $HUT signed the most attractive large scale (e.g. 200MW ) leases with investment grade hyperscaler counterparties to-date.. The incremental 830MW of power that Galaxy Digital $GLXY received final ERCOT approval on yesterday seems to have arrived at a fortuitous time..

Happy Friday. On today’s show: - @bhorowitz (a16z) - @arampell (a16z) - @DavidGeorge83 (a16z) - @jkhamehl (a16z) - @JeremieEO (SemiAnalysis) See you on the stream.

ClusterMAX 2.0 is here! In this update we rate 84 neoclouds, up from 26 Our market view tracks 209 providers, up from 169 in March and 124 last October We spoke to over 140 end users as part of the research And we wrote over 43,000 words about our experience This is more than Animal Farm, but less than The Great Gatsby More thoughts in 🧵

Too often, AI and energy conversations happen in separate rooms. That gap inspired @themeghamachine and I to launch the Watt & Why Series ⚡ Excited to kick this off and big thanks to @CrusoeAI and @SemiAnalysis_ for co-hosting the first session. A space that brings everyone from AI researchers to energy traders together for the conversations that will shape our future!

Amazon and Anthropic clearly aren't falling behind on GenAI :)

Thanks for the invite @AndrewRangeley !! Looking forward to our next convo!!

Microsoft datacenter strategy – still in⏸️mode 🧵 @JeremieEO Four months ago we flagged Microsoft’s pause on more than 1.5 GW of self-build capacity — on top of the leasing freeze we called out in December. Microsoft’s latest 10-K backs us up: committed datacenter construction is down year over year, almost no new leases were signed in the past 12 months, and land purchases have plunged relative to FY 24.

Robotics Levels of Autonomy Single-Purpose Robots Automating Hundreds of Jobs Pick And Place with low Autonomy is Expensive General Purpose Autonomy Navigating And Inspecting Large Sites Targeting Low-Skill Labor In Early Pilots with Promise Autonomy Capable Of Any Task in Research semianalysis.com/2025/07/30/…

Last week, @mims asked us if NVIDIA’s claims for 30x inference performance with Blackwell were exaggerated. We said yes, 30x improvement is gen-on-gen, doesn’t consider perf/$, and only applies in specific scenarios (large MOE’s). So, Chris put me on the front page of wsj dot com saying that Groq can “deliver inference at a lower cost than is possible with NVIDIA systems”. Is Groq’s technology credible? It’s an interesting question that I didn’t answer. Lets unpack it.

We spoke with @JeremieEO (Analyst @SemiAnalysis) about the US data center race: "Since mid-2023, there's a frantic search for power happening in the US and worldwide." "There's ~500 gigawatts of data center load requests in the US which is a figure close to the nation's actual peak load." "Only 20% of these projects may be real by 2030." "Tax breaks, expedited permits, and on-site power solutions are key in this competition."

Going live on @tbpn at 12:45P PT to talk about Meta, Oracle and big AI clusters!!

Meta Superintelligence Leadership Compute, Talent, and Data Massive AI Datacenter Cluster "The Tent" Llama Behemoth 4 Failure Post-Mortem Talent Wars, AI Data, Zucc Founder Mode Meta Will Never Pay Taxes Again semianalysis.com/2025/07/11/… Analyst Credit: @dylan522p, @JeremieEO, Wei Zhou, @aj_kourabi, @mayabarkin

Just dropped my third Power Bytes note introducing a new metric I developed: Data Center Reserve Margin (DCRM). It’s designed to quantify how much additional AI/data center load a region can realistically absorb before grid reliability breaks down. (1/4) 🧵 Full analysis case study here: aishwaryamahesh.substack.com…

Tariff Armageddon? GPU Loopholes Mexico Supply Chain Shift Wafer Fab Equipment Optical Module Pricing UPS, Generators, Transformers, Switchgear, Power Distribution Equipment, Cooling, Pumps OEM & ODM Supply Chain Softbank Impact Nvidia Balance Sheet Usage semianalysis.com/2025/04/10/…

America Is Missing The New Labor Economy Robotics Part 1 China's Dominance Playbook General Purpose Robotics Is The Holy Grail Robotic Systems Breakdown Supply Chain Hardships The West Is Positioned Backward and Covering Their Eyes semianalysis.com/2025/03/11/…

On Friday, there was a report stating that Microsoft was canceling datacenter leases for several hundred of MWs – alluding to a high risk of overbuild/oversupply. We discussed this in December in our Datacenter Model where we track every individual DC. Let's break it down cause it's quite silly. This was months late info probably from PTC. P much everyone knew this was happening in the DC industry because contracts were lagging / not being signed Microsoft was exceptionally aggressive in 2023 and H1 2024 – with Blackstone-owned QTS getting the largest chunk of that capacity. In Q2 2024, 59% of the total hyperscaler preleased capacity, well over $100B was contracted by Microsoft, also over 100B! Since Q2 2024, Microsoft’s preleased balance has stopped growing. This aligns with with our channel checks, as we have been hearing a lot of rumors that, in 2023 and H1 2024, Microsoft was essentially “freezing” the Colocation market by entering into non-binding LOIs with a lot of colocation campuses. Our Core Research product also noted this for Vertiv $VRT. Everyone was surprised their book to bill was so low, but Microsoft has a huge commit of capacity and near term plans weren't shifting. Microsoft slowdown is more evident in Australia, Spain, and UK as per our datacenter model. Being vauge on numbers here but full detail in datacenter model below. All in all of Microsoft were to build everything they have scheduled, that's eons above any other analyst who doesn't track by DC like we do semianalysis.com/p/datacente…

Fire

Check out this awesome episode by @YetAnotherValue and @JeremieEO youtube.com/watch?v=-H4GakGD…