Economist at Sense Partners, trade geek, rugby ref. All comments my own.
Joined September 2009
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John Ballingall retweeted
May 21
Which just illustrates the utter irrelevance of the target, since the bulk of the increase presumably reflects simply rising global gold prices which I suspect not even Shane Jones would attempt to claim credit for.
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Chatting India FTA 'controversies' - investment, tariff clawbacks, visas and a gratuitous comment about Liz Hurley
Coalition parties trade blows over India agreement | Focus on Politics youtu.be/M2dJQfwa0FA?si=6BuH… via @YouTube
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Once more for the hard of hearing:
1. Obligation is to "promote investment", not achieve the target. If we don't promote it hard enough, then after 18 yrs & a lot of process India *could* temp reimpose tariffs. Exactly $0 of duties saved in that 18 yrs will be clawed back. 1/4
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We've affirmed/noted UNDRIP in UK, EU and UAE FTAs too, so this is not a new thing.
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4. FTAs are always compromises, esp when you're a small ecy seeking concessions from a huge one that isn't a fan of free trade, doesn't need an FTA & holds all the cards. Keen to know what WP would have done differently - what would he have foregone to uphold NZ 'values'?
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I mean, apart from these points, the tariffs were brilliant
Mar 30
One year after Liberation Day, the evidence does not support the administration’s core claims.
Tariffs weren't reciprocal, didn't produce an investment surge, generated less revenue than projected, didn't pay down the national debt, and pushed prices up. taxfoundation.org/blog/liber…
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NZ is named amongst 60 countries to be investigated. More tariff uncertainty awaits. Sigh.
But it's a big [yuuuge] stretch to say NZ's lack of a ban on forced labour imports burdens or restricts US commerce in any material sense.
Here's why (non-legal take)... brief🧵
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Ambassador Greer launched Section 301 investigations into acts, policies, and practices of 60 economies to determine whether foreign governments have taken sufficient steps to prohibit the importation of goods produced with forced labor.
Learn more: ustr.gov/about/policy-office…
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US has never raised this as a concern for NZ in its annual 'National Trade Estimates' doc where it lists trade/reg beefs with each country. And it's usually not shy in flagging gripes, no matter their merits. So this is a very novel line of attack. Grasping at straws?
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NZ has an opp to present its case and I know we'll do so v strongly. So no need to panic yet.
But consideration of some deal, or signs of movement towards more stringent measures on forced labour, may be required, regardless of the lack of economic logic here.
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Hopefully NZ doesn't count as "a major trading partner" or Pharmac procurement (a longstanding bugbear of the US) doesn't trigger s301 tariffs.
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Beef excluded.
Feb 20
🚨 President Donald J. Trump imposes a 10% global tariff on all countries.
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Excellent summary of alternative tariff options the President could use. None are as flexible as the way Trump used IEEPA tariffs, but all have potential to affect NZ.
"The Supreme Court’s ruling on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) takes away one tool of the president’s current trade agenda, but there are several others that the president can use to raise tariffs. However, because there is no exact replacement for the sweeping authorities that Trump claimed under IEEPA, he will need to rebuild his tariffs in a patchwork," writes expert @InuManak. cfr.org/articles/how-trumps-…
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Key govt objective now is to avoid NZ-specific s301 (should be fine - we don't really have unfair trade practices) and hope s232 (national security) is not used on more of our key exports. Latter seems low risk outside steel & aluminium but no doubt creative arguments may emerge
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John Ballingall retweeted
Feb 20
Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, on which Trump’s 10% tariff is based, does not apply in the current macro environment. A balance of payments deficit is not the same thing as a trade deficit. You cannot have a balance of payments if you have a flexible exchange rate, as the US currently does.
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Yeah the Deadliest Catch crews face some gnarly Baring Sea conditions but they've never faced recycling night in a Wellington 'summer'.
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Excellent take ⬇️ from @asianewzealand here - we don't need to throw foreign policy babies out with the bathwater; flexibility and agility matter more in the current mayhem.
As global rules fray and major powers turn coercive, the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s chief executive, Suzannah Jessep, argues for agile diplomacy and staying in the company of like-minded states.
Read the full article on Newsroom ⬇️
newsroom.co.nz/2026/01/30/ba…
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