Thank you all for participating in yesterday’s case.
It is indeed a complex fibroadenoma with both atypical ductal hyperplasia (I did not pull the trigger on DCIS) and atypical lobular hyperplasia. This is a very rare combination although atypia in a fibroadenoma is common enough many pathologists will encounter examples of it in their practice.
The other reason I wanted to share this case is the attributed significance of such findings (complex FA and atypia in FA) as far as cancer risk is concerned. Here’s a summary of the main literature on the topic:
1. Dupont et al. Complex fibroadenoma confers a greater (statistically significant) breast cancer risk than regular fibroadenoma
2. Carter et al. Atypical hyperplasia in a fibroadenoma does not increase breast cancer risk and does not predict atypical hyperplasia outside the FA
3. Nassar et al. The risk associated with FA goes hand in hand with what is going within and outside the FA ie it’s the hyperplasia not the FA that determines cancer risk. Complex FA on the other hand will have a significant increase in risk of two features of complex FA are present but not if 3 features are there
I grew up believing the first 2 studies without questioning them because they were the product of the genius of David Page, my mentor and hero. And I attributed the conclusion that no risk is associated with atypical hyperplasia in FA to the hypothesis that the FA is a separate environment where the rules are different and cannot be extrapolated.
The problem with this line of thinking is a glaring inconsistency. Cysts and adenosis and calcifications increase the cancer risk of a Fibroadenoma but not atypical hyperplasia? This just doesn’t add up. In Nassar’s study, 2 features of a complex FA increase the risk but not 3? Again, this is just illogical.
Here’s the problem and the main point of this long tweet. All of the conclusions above were drawn from less than 20 cases, a puny number in the large and complicated tapestry of breast cancer risk.
This is the law of small numbers at work.
There is a famous case detailed in *Thinking Fast and Slow” another excellent read, that caused even the Gates Foundation to draw false conclusions and misallocate resources:
Many researchers have sought the secret of successful education by identifying the most successful schools in the hope of discovering what distinguishes them from others. One of the conclusions of this research is that the most successful schools, on average, are small. In a survey of 1,662 schools in Pennsylvania, for instance, 6 of the top 50 were small, which is an overrepresentation by a factor of 4. These data encouraged the Gates Foundation to make a substantial investment in the creation of small schools, sometimes by splitting large schools into smaller units...Unfortunately, the causal analysis is pointless because the facts are wrong...The truth is that small schools are not better on average; they are simply more variable, and they also account for the worst schools in the group. But everyone missed that fact or just ignored it.
So, if you’re still here, common sense still prevails, statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, literature should be read critically even when originating from highly respected sources, and beware the law of small numbers.
Happy Thursday! 🙂
@wusm_pathology
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