US and Iran will sign an Agreement Tomorrow - Stated by Trump Top YES holder is now up $300,000 Odds for Permanent Peace Deal are spiking up to 37% Though it seems that the main objects of the deal is Nuclear weapon and Strait of Hormuz The key sentiment of this day is NO to Nuclear Weaponizing and fully Opened Strait Iranian sources keep silence

7 filters to hunt Smart Money on Polymarket It's pretty complicated to track correct net flows, as most of the times they're not loud > Headlines and news move retail > Silent Indicators and precise formulations decide what side smart money chooses I was tracking sentiment flows via different samples 90% of them track random trades, only a few filters seemed to be useful Basic sample I consider as a good one includes: > Crypto and Sports excluded > Wallet age 2yrs < X < 60d > Taker purchases > Total Value over $3k > Position concentration >70% > Automatized bots excluded Combo cuts off all the noise, retail minor purchases, ludo hopium, and non-trackable categories Yet, not every txns tab is projected to be the one I am looking for You can also try it out now

Prepare to trade World Cup like a Quantitative model Some must-to-learn stats: > 8 winner countries in 96 years > 3 obvious frontrunners > The region matters The duty is not to increase the payout, but to lower the risks Historical Winner Basket is at only 54c cumulative odds cost Few underdogs who ever reached semi-finals are at only ~20c cumulative odds Winner Basket Competitive Underdogs = ~74c total price Receive $1 payout if any country from the sample wins (>30% ROI) But this isn't enough. I'm not the big fan of one or another player. I've never watched a single match outside the 2022 World Cup. But this is what my sports-trader mate told me: "Top Goalscorer basket is greatly mispriced at the current conditions. Retail misses that top scorer is not about the skill, but the fair probability consists of various factors, and rate them accurate enough is almost impossible but you can try point to the sky and be near-correct matches played × shots per match × penalty taker × group difficulty x (?) pick the player whose team is almost guaranteed to play 5-7 matches" Here's what is obvious: > Winner Basket is projected to rise in total price as less countries will stay after first matches. So accumulate them now. > Set live alerts on top teams and play the panic of first time. > Don't trade if your own conviction is not enough. @BitgetWallet makes it possible to trade Polymarket as a phone app. > Experience is much smoother than on mobile web version. Pinned the link below.

You can now get 10x more value trading the same markets that are nearly-resolved. Here's how: No loud announcement was shipped, but there's a new page in Polymarket docs. User can request a quote for the package of markets and receive a price of it from market makers The whole process is explained in the tweet below As expected, this feature won't be limited by things like "Combo of only related markets can be approved" or "The mean share price cannot be over 90c" And I really like it. So-called "bonds" can now be stacked into 1 combo. There're tons of free money across obvious outcomes, but the main thing that stops me personally is holding period. Now it can be compounded together with expectably higher return. You can have your mind on how to use it, but here's mine.

Polymarket whale put $400,000 worth of YES shares on France to win the World Cup If he's right he will earn ~$2.5M I can prove him wrong: If you're here to trade on your loved country, just keep going My mission is to trade pricing inefficiencies and fanatic hopium WC starts tomorrow and I’m watching this tournament through @Prophetzone It's an intelligence terminal built on Top of Polymarket: > market moves > volume & sentiment > signals behind this all Spent a While discovering Strategies Tab. For instance, South American sample would pay off 373% return with much lower risk than you'd get by trading on a single team. Same with European frontrunners sample and so on. I am not the fan, I'm here to predict and estimate fair probabilities.