Writing the rules to answer the questions about the future

Joined March 2010
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If a machine was called upon to save your life would you prefer it to be biased in your favor or with as little bias as possible? Negative #bias in AI only exists because we insist on using a thing even when we know it's not the right thing in advance.
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
david hockney with his dachshunds stanley and boodgie. RIP 🕊️
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Hockney was one of a kind.
“I think I’m greedy, but I’m not greedy for money – I think that can be a burden…I can find excitement, I admit, in raindrops falling on a puddle and a lot of people wouldn’t. I intend to have it exciting until the day I fall over.” RIP David Hockney
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Another giant lost.
Breaking News: David Hockney, the English artist whose colorful paintings restored the human form to art, defying the abstract schools of the mid-20th century, died at 88. nyti.ms/3S4k0Fx
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Tell me about it. I blew through three shirts today by noon!
Jun 10
It is so humid in Chicago today. Oh my God.
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
Keep in mind this was Wood’s dissertation. It just happened to shape the debates on the nature of the American Founding for the next generation. Unbelievable achievement.
Recommended reading.
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
Replying to @carm1nee
😂 Musk is so deep in the K-Hole he fantasizing about GPUs that defy physics! The probability he has a real plan to compete with Nvidia is idk maybe billion-to-1. Yet just yesterday he tweeted this about statistical improbability being hard evidence of fraud. Does he not realize by his own logic his success is "hard evidence" that he is actually committing fraud?! x.com/elonmusk/status/206374…

💯
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We lost a giant. RIP Professor Wood.
I never met Gordon Wood, but I have a story about him. In one of my grad school seminars, we read Wood’s Creation of the American Republic. The sheer erudition and evidentiary depth of the book bowled me over. Back then, before kids and before life accelerated to warp speed, I used to call my mother every Sunday to catch up. Lots of times, we ended up talking about what I was reading that week in my grad seminars or for leisure. Mom had an omnivorous mind, and she was always looking for something else to read. She was a true intellectual—curious about almost everything, always eager to integrate new arguments or ideas into her existing schemas of how the world worked or to have those schemas challenged and changed. When we talked that particular Sunday, I think I tried to describe to her part of Wood’s argument about the relationship between the state constitutions during the Articles of Confederation era and the federal Constitution. Maybe I was tired, maybe I didn’t completely understand her questions, but the end result of the conversation was that Mom had questions about Wood’s argument that I didn’t answer satisfactorily. I told her that she should probably just read the book, and we said goodbye. She did eventually read the book, but the next Sunday, Mom started our conversation by saying, “Well, I had a lovely conversation with Gordon Wood this week.” For a split second, I thought she was joking, but then I remembered who I was dealing with. I started to sweat. “How?” I asked. A whole variety of unlikely scenarios in which the foremost historian of the American Revolution and my mother, who lived in Wichita, Kansas, might have met ran through my mind. “Oh, I just looked up his office phone number on Brown’s website and called, and he picked up!” Mom said. I decided I would have to find another profession. As it ended up, Gordon Wood spent about an hour on the phone with my mother answering her questions about the Constitution. Ever since, I’ve had a soft spot for the man when I imagine him picking up the phone in Providence and finding Becky Elder from Wichita on the other end of the line. His generosity in that moment spoke very well of him. Rest in peace, professor.
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This is an absolute tragedy. Gordon Wood was possibly the greatest American historian to ever live. I strongly recommend every American read The Radicalism of the American Revolution. RIP Professor Wood 😢
Tragic news today: the eminent historian Gordon S. Wood was struck and killed while walking in the Shaw's plaza in East Providence, his family confirms to me. No comment from Brown yet Wood was just featured in Ken Burns' American Revolution documentary wpri.com/news/local-news/pro…
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Very sad to read that Stacy King died yesterday. I have so many great memories of the 1990's Bulls teams but IMO his legacy will be as the best color man in the game. "Does anyone know how to post videos to Facebook?!" Drive home safe Stacy, beep beep!! x.com/i/status/2063681273478…
“Does anybody know how to post videos to Facebook?” The best color commentator in the business. RIP Stacey King
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Art markets alone could do $10B in monthly volume by giving long time collectors the confidence to bring their collections to auction. Auction houses could use them to hedge reserve risk and guaranteed minimums. Buyers could leverage markets to subsidize a purchase, while dealers can use them to hedge the risk of repping new artists. Artists could hedge the risk of trying something new or risky.
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will global art market sales hit $65 billion for 2026? polymarket.com/event/will-gl…
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
Replying to @Autonomous_Chad
I am currently recruiting philosophers and linguists and raising money for the ISDA of prediction markets. We are building a common domain model to standardize market language and propositional resolution logic to automate resolution.
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This dude gets it. Good faith actor right here.
Replying to @TimStone84
i run a small telegram group and we were all long NO. Some with more money, some with less money. when the news came out on june 1st that MSTR sold we all knew we lost and started coping and trying to make fun of the situation. At the same time we were all wondering WTF this market wasnt trading at 100% because clearly we lost. There was NOT ONE of us who argued that we mightve won because THERE SIMPLY WAS NO GOOD FAITH ARGUMENT to be made. The resolvement of this market is one of the biggest scams i ever witnessed and I am in crypto since early 2017. It is one thing getting rugged by a memecoin or getting hacked in DEFI but outright being scammed by a 20B official entity is rare and I would need to go back to FTX times for this...
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💯bad faith acktors the lot of them. off with their heads i say.
Most annoying part with the @Polymarket situation is not the money they scammed from me in a market I clearly won based on rules. It is all the little weasels with their badges coming out of the woodwork doing gaslighting and "acktually" posts while in reality every single one of them knows how full of shit they are... despicable behaviour truly
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Here are simple prospective rules that could have prevented the entire @Polymarket Microstrategy controversy this week: 1 - Market will resolve Yes if Microstrategy sells any amount of bitcoin before 11:59pm on May 31st; 2 - Trading will close for all market participants at 11:59pm on May 31st; 3 - Microstrategy will file an 8-K with the SEC Monday June 1, 2026 which will include all bitcoin transactions from the prior week, so we will know with certainty at the time of the 8-K filing whether it resolves Yes or No; 4 - The market will resolve automatically by the end of business on June 1, 2026 upon verification of Microstrategy’s bitcoin transactions prior to 11:59pm on May 31st as reported in their 8-K filing.
After today and watching events past few days, I've lost absolutely all trust in @Polymarket. Will be moving my weather bot and money out of the platform and my trading as well. "Microstrategy sells any bitcoin by May 31st" has just resolved to "NO". What I saw today is amongst a handful of the most blatant alleged frauds I've seen from a platform this big to its users in this space. Would be genuinely surprised if somehow this doesn't end up with much worse consequences for them. As things are standing, I have no option but to conclude this is the start of their downfall and that another platform will take it's place. I'll /c this later. Put simply but accurately: they changed the contract (buying shares with a set of conditions/rules) AFTER the agreement (purchase) and AFTER the date chosen had already passed (changed on june 1st, date was may 31st). Imagine buying a lottery ticket, winning, and when you go to claim they tell you they've decided to change the numbers. Disgusting and shameless are soft words for this. Some, as myself, would also say illegal, but that's still to be proven in front of a judge. It simply makes 0 sense to attempt any type of predictions in Polymarket, as the results of these prediction markets are not grounded in real events nor reliable sources, no matter how much they SAY they are (@arkham had recorded the sale on may 27th I believe), but on what the UMA holders find the most convenient at the time. Just reading that paragraph makes me even more disgusted. I can attempt to predict real life events, but I can't predict on what side of the bed the biggest UMA whale wakes up today. Might as well change every question to "Will UMA holders resolve/decide to...." After almost a decade of legal training, it's simply impossible for me to think this doesn't end in 1 or more lawsuits, and/or a class action. There's simply too much evidence and too much money lost. Of course it's not the first time something similar happens, but it is hands down the biggest and worst one. Many lost it all. A platform with a system that can't reflect the truth of events is unfit to be a prediction market. If a blockchain like Solana wasn't capable of reflecting the truth of its transactions, it wouldn't exist. Polymarket, in its current state, CAN NOT provide the service they claim they can provide. The fact $UMA holders (-98% in price btw) coincide with truth is just a matter of intersection of incentives. When they're misaligned (as it happened today), the truth changes, and real life events don't matter anymore. This is true I believe for any and all prediction markets in polymarket. What was the most alarming was the changing of the rule on june 1st. Changed from "occurred" (sale) to "announced". Becuase it leads me to believe there's a high chance it's not only UMA whales in this fiasco, but polymarket changing the frame (mid bet!!!) to cater them as well. I'm not leaving my money in the hands of a handful of UMA whales 1 minute more. I really wish it wasn't this way. I didn't really lose anything, unlike others. I'm just mostly disappointed, and I must embarrasingly admit a little heartbroken. Seems like just another rigged game. It would seem as if reality didn't matter in polymarket, only how much a handful of big players stand to gain.
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
Replying to @jdorman81
correct. it shouldn't have been tradeable anymore after may 25, in fact. the resolution date should always be a monday because that's when the announcement is made.
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Anyone who was active on @ManifoldMarkets when Levi Finkelstein was around has long been familiar with the bad faith behavior of the colluding No bettors and UMA hivemind token holders today. Shameless scam executed by mostly anonymous chuds.
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Anonymouscum right here. Untrustworthy bad faith actor.
made $1100 on Microstrategy selling bitcoin because some people can't read the clarification issued by Polymarket. sure you'll be a millionaire, keep buying YES👍👍
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Such a ridiculous unforced error by Polymarket. I am starting to doubt @shayne_coplan has control because I believe he is a good faith actor, but whoever allowed this to happen is an irredeemably untrustworthy bad faith actor. Please clear house and rebuild with the right people!!
The MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale Polymarket officially resolved as 'NO' after final review Over $400M in total volume on this pool 🥀🥀
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There are events that could not possibly be resolved according to the retrospective standard of "announcement by date" such as a presidential election. This toxic precedent crumbles immediately when it only applies sometimes. Not to mention the zero information value of an announcement.
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Brian T. Edwards retweeted
This is basically the definition of 'bad faith'
The actual end date for this Polymarket scam was July 1st - per the API So Polymarket is just straight up scamming traders in order to keep their UMA whales happy?
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