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layoff announcements spiking...

Over the weekend, the near-term temperature outlook has trended milder & my Consensus Model—which integrates GFS OP, GFS ENS, & ECWMF ENS data—is now calling for 233 GWDDs for March 10-23, the single fewest for the period in the last 5 yrs. While #natgas prices have held stubbornly strong, I do feel that a pullback is likely to start the week.

SSW’s Arctic cold meets LNG capacity growth—natural gas markets are in for a wild ride. Buckle up for volatility. #natgas

#German - #Italy yield spreads. Future problems in the European core not the periphery? #Bonds #Yields

#natgas #dbnatgaswx GEFS -7 so far. EPS just started and is -1 out of the gate. I am waiting for signs of a magical Polar Vortex to justify the rally. At least that is one of the reasons getting floated around.

#natgas Be careful there might be a rally today

🚨 HIGH IMPACT Trump says will impose 25% tariff on Canada, Mexico #OOTT energyexch.com/news/1325302

Oil has seen significant 'insider trading' today on the back of a market-moving document leak. Since ~7am GMT, a full copy of the US Treasury document announcing oil sanctions on Russia (supposedly under embargo until 15.30 GMT) circulated widely among oil trading desks. #OOTT

Hershey is asking the US’s top derivatives regulator for permission to buy a huge amount of cocoa through the New York exchange after global shortages sent prices to a record trib.al/ClcVw70

RT @JamieHeard5: Make that two LNG trains ramping now. CCL Stage 3 popping Corpus to new highs. Plaqyemines also at new highs this morning.…

Actually the gas prices are quite high. Given that WTI and Brent now trade well under $70 the oil input costs for a gallon of gasoline are well under $2. So with refining and shipping that should mean less than $3 a gallon. In case you don't think that is true you can look at old government data from EIA from 20 or 30 years ago and check what the price of gasoline was at similar price levels of WTI. The main reason it is so high is that European refiners that buy at Brent prices and use world prices for LNG to refine set the prices in the US market because they are the highest cost producer. Everyone else just has to undercut them by a penny or two to sell all of the gasoline they can make and that is what happens. Also, when there is a world wide shortage of diesel you will see diesel prices well north of gasoline in the US. Effectively diesel production subsidizes gasoline prices as the excess gasoline gets dumped into the US market, worlds largest market for gasoline.

The @KamalaHarris economic plan is to increase demand with subsidies and to reduce supply with price controls, and to do so in the first 100 days of her administration. Who is her economic adviser? Will he or she at least explain how this is supposed to work?

Wow, this is insane

The cost of living is up over 50% since you took office. When the price level moves up like this and stays flat for one year, you victory lap a ‘zero’?! We need prices to drop at least 30% for housing to be even close to affordable. Here’s the FHFA index since you began:

About $1.7 trillion, or nearly 30% of outstanding commercial real estate debt, is expected to mature from 2024 to 2026. Most of this debt is going to need to reprice during this time at a time when office values have fallen about 34% from the 2021 peak. stlouisfed.org/on-the-econom…

France 🇫🇷 Tereos Posts Record Annual Profit On Strong Sugar Prices French sugar group Tereos nearly trebled its net profit to €448 million in its 2023/24 financial year, helped by higher sugar prices. Group sales rose 9% to €7.14 billion in the year to 31 March, with adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) up 15% at €1.13 billion. "It's mainly the impact of prices, but there is also an impact from volumes, with record production in Brazil," Tereos finance chief Gwenael Elies told a news conference. The group's net debt, which has been under scrutiny in the bond market, stood at €2.37 billion by 31 March, down from €2.7 billion a year earlier. However, a fall in EU sugar prices since late 2023 on expectations of hefty global supplies could weigh on results in the current year, Tereos chief executive Olivier Leducq has warned previously. Source: ESM - complete article below

Japan 10-Year Bond Yield Rises to Highest Since 2011. Meanwhile the yen continues to crater. Japan's utterly incompetent central bank has managed to blow up both its bond market and currency at the same time

Silver production in Peru continues to fall severely, now down 43% from peak levels.   Together with China, Peru is projected to be the second-largest producer of silver globally.   Limited new supply paired with structurally higher demand is the perfect recipe for major price surges in any commodity.