Mathematician & Mama Bear with a strong passion for #discretechoice #conjoint #maxdiff #mrx . Owner @NumeriousInc Will travel ✈️

Joined March 2015
84 Photos and videos
It's Friday afternoon and what better way to spend it than putting together a fun survey for all of you! 🤓 My inspiration today comes from Super Bowl Sunday - a big event here in the US where the Americans toss around a "pig skin" 🏈 But this is not a post on who will win (because let's be honest, if the Detroit Lions aren't playing...I don't really care who wins...) It's a post about how Super Bowl Sunday ads are some of the biggest brand bets of the year. We’re talking up to $10M just for a 30-second spot — and that’s before you factor in the cost of creative, talent, production, media strategy… 😅 Truly a “go big or go home” moment for brands. I’m always curious what angle brands take. Humor vs. heart? Safe and familiar… or bold and risky? So of course my next thought was: 👉 Why not put it to the people and let them vote (in a Megan-type way with a #MaxDiff!)? Thanks to CBS and their article, I pulled 24 of the full-length commercials that are already live ahead of Sunday: lnkd.in/gPq5YSqM And don't worry if you haven't seen the ads, I've embedded them right into the survey! You’ll watch the clips directly in the survey link, you’ll see two ads at a time (paired comparison), and you'll choose the one you like best! We’ll then pool everyone’s votes to create one clean stack rank across all 24 commercials and crown a winner 🏆 I’ve watched all of them while building this. They’re mostly 30–90 seconds. Most are good...some are not - but you all are entitled to your own preferences! And one is LOL funny 🤣 like, clear front-runner in my book. Curious if you can guess which one! 👀 👉 Take the survey here: lnkd.in/gJFhgBA5 I mean, what else do you have going on tonight? Go watch some Super Bowl ads “for research.” #SuperBowlAds #BrandStrategy #MaxDiff #AlwaysbeCurious
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Doubling down on when to use MaxDiff TURF vs. Token-Based Conjoint (TBC) - this time with some case studies 🤓 #MaxDiff #TURF Case Study (Coverage) Imagine you are a tech company and you are planning to go to market (hashtag#GTM) with a new wearable device. You want to understand which third-party (3P) app integrations need to be prioritized for integration SO THAT people will purchase your device.  You have over 80 apps under consideration and you need to focus partnership and dev efforts on: ✅ having the most preferred apps available ✅ making sure you have something for everyone This is a perfect MaxDiff TURF problem: -MaxDiff tells you what’s most preferred overall - TURF helps you build the lineup that maximizes incremental reach (i.e., something for everyone) #TBC Case Study (Conversion) Imagine you are a tech company and you are planning to go to market (hashtag#GTM) with a new monthly subscription offering. You want to understand which 4-6 member benefits need to be prioritized SO THAT people will subscribe. You have 40 potential benefits on the table and you need to focus dev and marketing efforts on: ✅ building the strongest combination of 4–6 benefits that drives adoption ✅ understanding how intent changes as the bundle grows (2 benefits vs. 4 vs. 6) This is a perfect Token-Based Conjoint problem: - TBC tells you what people choose when they can’t pick everything - TBC shows whether the bundle is actually enough to convert (and when adding more stops helping) So, before choosing the method, start with the why! Are we optimizing for coverage… or for conversion? Hope this helps make the choice a little clearer 🤓
Feeling spicy 🌶️ during this cold week 🥶 so here's another nerdy take from me 🤓 - All push back and comments welcome! #MaxDiff #TURF have been the tried-and-true approach for years when teams need to prioritize claims, benefits, or features. And as the (self-crowned) queen of MaxDiff 👑 🤣 I know why! It’s really great for answering: “How do we make sure there’s something for everyone?” But lately I've been having a lot of conversations where the real business question isn’t reach or breadth it's... “What’s the best combination of things to say together to actually drive purchase?” And that is what makes Token-Based Conjoint (#TBC) so powerful! It can tell you the best 1 claim, 2 claim, 3, 4, 5, 6 claim bundle AND how purchase intent changes as you add more claims to the bundle. And we know that for some consumers (think "enthusiasts / early adopters") we might not need to offer too much to drive conversion. They'll subscribe with 1-2 strong benefits. But for others (think "pragmatics / skeptics / late adopters"), they might need more reassurance...and even then you still might not win them! TBC is built to answer: - If you only got 1 benefit, would you subscribe? - If you get these 3 together, how much does intent jump? - When do extra benefits stop helping and just start getting more expensive for you to offer? MaxDiff TURF - while fabulous - just can't answer that conversion question in the same way. My rule of thumb? 👍If the job is to maximize how many people see something they like → TURF 👍If the job is to optimize the story the pack (or offering) tells under constraints → TBC TL;DR TURF = coverage / breadth TBC = conversion / depth The screenshot below shows you "how" we capture TBC data. Want to learn more about TBC? Check out the recording of our webinar at the link here lnkd.in/g2gnPWif
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Feeling spicy 🌶️ during this cold week 🥶 so here's another nerdy take from me 🤓 - All push back and comments welcome! #MaxDiff #TURF have been the tried-and-true approach for years when teams need to prioritize claims, benefits, or features. And as the (self-crowned) queen of MaxDiff 👑 🤣 I know why! It’s really great for answering: “How do we make sure there’s something for everyone?” But lately I've been having a lot of conversations where the real business question isn’t reach or breadth it's... “What’s the best combination of things to say together to actually drive purchase?” And that is what makes Token-Based Conjoint (#TBC) so powerful! It can tell you the best 1 claim, 2 claim, 3, 4, 5, 6 claim bundle AND how purchase intent changes as you add more claims to the bundle. And we know that for some consumers (think "enthusiasts / early adopters") we might not need to offer too much to drive conversion. They'll subscribe with 1-2 strong benefits. But for others (think "pragmatics / skeptics / late adopters"), they might need more reassurance...and even then you still might not win them! TBC is built to answer: - If you only got 1 benefit, would you subscribe? - If you get these 3 together, how much does intent jump? - When do extra benefits stop helping and just start getting more expensive for you to offer? MaxDiff TURF - while fabulous - just can't answer that conversion question in the same way. My rule of thumb? 👍If the job is to maximize how many people see something they like → TURF 👍If the job is to optimize the story the pack (or offering) tells under constraints → TBC TL;DR TURF = coverage / breadth TBC = conversion / depth The screenshot below shows you "how" we capture TBC data. Want to learn more about TBC? Check out the recording of our webinar at the link here lnkd.in/g2gnPWif
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It's another snowy day ❄️ here in Michigan and I keep thinking about this article and asking myself... Is AI pricing the great #equalizer? 🤔 Hear me out... In theory, individualized pricing could mean more access for highly price-sensitive buyers to purchase products they previously couldn't afford / wouldn't have paid for. But then I think... If the "machine" 🤖 knows more about my buying habits than I do... it's not really equal is it. Because that machine probably isn't optimizing based on "fairness" or "equality" but rather based on the business goals. Aka maximum price per individual to maximize profits. And ultimately what will happen in that world (IMO) is loyal customers will be charged more. So the very behavior brands say they want (i.e., loyalty) becomes the strongest signal to trigger higher prices. And once consumers start to suspect that prices aren't explainable...trust is gone. Maybe AI could be an equalizer in categories where loyalty doesn't matter? And I think many of us can justify price differentiation if it's segment-based (student vs. enterprise), channel-based (direct vs. club store), timing-based (think surge pricing), quantity-based (single versus bulk)... But at the identity-level? I think people expect some form of procedural fairness. And I just don't know how you make that argument if you're AI-first and Human/customer-second... But alas, sample size of n=1. Curious what others think!
Hunkering down in this freezing 🥶 cold weather and catching up on some reading by the fire and thought I’d share this interesting thought piece in Barron's bit.ly/49OK7FC On one hand, I’ve spent years helping companies uncover willingness to pay through #conjoint analysis. But…typically my clients use #WTP at the segment, channel, or regional level. Setting prices that maximize profit for “students” versus “enterprises” or at “Walmart” versus “Target” or in an “urban” area versus a “rural” area. This article talks about (what many of us probably already assumed was happening) which is that AI is making it possible for two people to buy the exact same basket of groceries, from the exact same store, but one pays $114 while the other pays $123. 🤯 Dynamic, individualized pricing. And sure, maybe sometimes it’s just pennies but those swings can add up, especially for loyal customers! And thats where I get anxious. It starts to feel like a brand is prioritizing a short-term gain with severe long-term risk. What happens when a customer realizes they paid 10% more than their neighbor? Not because of a promo or timing but literally because an algorithm decided they would. 🫣 You can absolutely optimize for willingness to pay. But you can also quietly erode trust. And losing a loyal customer can be far more expensive than winning a new one. As someone who loves pricing optimization and cares a LOT about how it’s applied, I’m watching this closely. Curious how this plays out. 👀 WDYT? I got time to chat in the comments…because I’m certainly not going outside 🤣
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Hunkering down in this freezing 🥶 cold weather and catching up on some reading by the fire and thought I’d share this interesting thought piece in Barron's bit.ly/49OK7FC On one hand, I’ve spent years helping companies uncover willingness to pay through #conjoint analysis. But…typically my clients use #WTP at the segment, channel, or regional level. Setting prices that maximize profit for “students” versus “enterprises” or at “Walmart” versus “Target” or in an “urban” area versus a “rural” area. This article talks about (what many of us probably already assumed was happening) which is that AI is making it possible for two people to buy the exact same basket of groceries, from the exact same store, but one pays $114 while the other pays $123. 🤯 Dynamic, individualized pricing. And sure, maybe sometimes it’s just pennies but those swings can add up, especially for loyal customers! And thats where I get anxious. It starts to feel like a brand is prioritizing a short-term gain with severe long-term risk. What happens when a customer realizes they paid 10% more than their neighbor? Not because of a promo or timing but literally because an algorithm decided they would. 🫣 You can absolutely optimize for willingness to pay. But you can also quietly erode trust. And losing a loyal customer can be far more expensive than winning a new one. As someone who loves pricing optimization and cares a LOT about how it’s applied, I’m watching this closely. Curious how this plays out. 👀 WDYT? I got time to chat in the comments…because I’m certainly not going outside 🤣
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25 Jul 2025
I just hosted my very first "Ask Me Anything" session in our TBC community... And I got to do it on my birthday 🎂 🥰 How cool is that?! (Okay, I might be alone in thinking it's super cool) But seriously, a live stream of brilliant, curious minds asking questions like: ❓“How does TBC compare to CBC?” ❓“Can we measure WTP with TBC?" ❓“What's the right sample size for a TBC?" 💛 Thank you to everyone who showed up live, asked the hard questions, and pushed this conversation forward. This is just a small taste of what’s to come in The @NumeriousInc Way — where methods meet strategy, and curiosity is the most important tool in your stack. More soon. But for now… we celebrate! 🥂
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11 Jun 2025
My labor of love for all those whose shoes I’ve been in before. Going to conferences and coming back to the office expected to implement “innovative” solutions with no guidebook or training on what was shared. Well, we’re changing that at @NumeriousInc Introducing the TBC community. And it looks gorgeous if I do say so myself vimeo.com/1092558270/7011050…
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10 Feb 2025
Did you know a 30 sec commercial spot during the Super Bowl last night could cost up to $8M ? 🤯 If I were a brand, I'd certainly be wondering if my ad moved the needle. Check out my latest article: Did That Super Bowl Ad Actually Work? Using #MaxDiff to Cut Through the Noise linkedin.com/pulse/did-super… via @LinkedIn

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11 Jan 2025
When you have this inexplicable momentum and excitement and positivity about the year 2025 and then you see this and it all makes sense… 🤯🤯🤯 To all my hashtag#quants out there - this is our year! 🎉 🤓 🎉
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31 Oct 2024
The results are in! The Ultimate #Halloween Candy of 2024 according to … N=300 Adults 18 - @Reese’s Cups N=61 Teen Girls 14-18 - @twix N=106 of my followers - @KITKAT You can check out the livestream of the results here: x.com/meganpeitz/status/1852… or download the deck with the results here: info.numerious.com/livestrea… Thank you to everyone who voted! And Happy Halloween! 🎃 👻 🎃
31 Oct 2024
MaxDiff: The Halloween Candy Edition x.com/i/broadcasts/1ynKODjlN…
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31 Oct 2024
MaxDiff: The Halloween Candy Edition x.com/i/broadcasts/1ynKODjlN…

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31 Oct 2024
A Halloween live stream should obviously have a spooky background! 👻🎃 Join me shortly in our live stream where we’ll crown the Ultimate Halloween Candy of 2024 using Math! 🤓
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17 Oct 2024
Cracking the Voter Code: The Science of Policy Priorities x.com/i/broadcasts/1RDxlyYqn…

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Making a #bigbet @NumeriousInc and couldn’t be more excited for what we’re building 😁🤓😁 Morning motivation - youtu.be/pSQk-4fddDI?si=zCYj… via @YouTube

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The @WSJ just published an article on the Mill device and the author's experience with it. "I Tried a $1,000 Trash Can for Two Months—and I Get It" wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/m…
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This is the same device that @NumeriousInc has been supporting with quantitative research since concept back in 2020 and that I'll be speaking about at the @IAnorthcentral conference on Friday! Transformative Insights: The Journey from Research in Sustainable Innovation.
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So proud of the team at Mill and to be a part of the movement. Check out the article and get your Mill today 🌱 Save $150 with the Labor Day Sale! mill.com/

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17 Apr 2024
Results readout with the DocuSign team last week onsite at HQ in SF and with my incredible stakeholder (and friend!) This job is SO freaking fun 🤩 🤩 #conjoint #pricing #businessstrategy
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17 Apr 2024
Also - can we talk about this rooftop and this building ?! Who’d have thought this country girl would love the city views so much!
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