“There is no business case” for East Coast LNG
- Justin Trudeau, immediately following Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.
This must stand as one of the most flagrantly stupid remarks ever made by a Canadian Prime Minister.
Everyone in politics says dumb things from time to time. I sure did.
The problem is that this dumb statement reflected government policy, based on an astonishing blend of energy, economic, and geopolitical illiteracy.
Mark Carney was elected on the premise of being literate on energy, the economy, and geopolitics.
On the promise of getting big things done “faster than ever,” of making Canada “an energy superpower,” of becoming the “fastest growing economy in the G7.”
So get on with it already.
Eastern Canadian provinces are increasingly positive on gas production and exports, eg Nova Scotia lifting its ridiculous gas production ban.
There is a growing shift back to energy realism in Quebec politics.
Enough consultations, meetings, and triangulating energy politics.
Embrace East Coast LNG as a moon shot project, with war time urgency.
Prove that Canada can once again do big things quickly, while making Canada wealthier, and helping the world achieve energy security.
Qatar's LNG is offline for 3-5 years
The US was already building the replacement
North America's LNG export capacity could more than double by 2029.
This chart was drawn before the war.
Now it looks like a strategic masterplan ♟️
Projects coming online 2026-2029:
🇺🇸 Plaquemines — already ramping
🇺🇸 Corpus Christi Stage III — coming
🇺🇸 Golden Pass — Exxon/QatarEnergy joint venture
🇨🇦 LNG Canada — first Canadian exports
🇺🇸 Port Arthur — major capacity
🇺🇸 Rio Grande — massive scale
🇺🇸 CP2 Phase 1 — next wave
🇺🇸 Woodside Louisiana LNG — 2029
From 11 bcf/day today to 28 bcf/day by 2029.
Ras Laffan produced 10 bcf/day.
Now offline for 3-5 years minimum.
The gap is enormous.
The US filling it is inevitable.
Every desperate LNG buyer (China, Japan, Korea, India, Europe ) now has one supplier capable of scaling at this speed.
🇺🇸 America.
Iran accidentally handed the US permanent LNG dominance.
This chart is the proof🛢️⚡