Posting maps of PA with weird numbers of districts, & occasionally election analysis
Joined January 2022
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16 Aug 2022
The Fall Line is an ancient geological feature. Lined by a string of waterfalls, it divides the hills of the Piedmont region from the Atlantic coastal plain.
Now, the line is a near-perfect boundary between left-trending & right-trending areas in Metro Philly.
Why? A thread:
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If @PHLDems don't ensure a fair election in the 22nd Ward they can't call themselves the Democratic Party with a straight face anymore
Councilmember Cindy Bass declared herself the winner of a Philly Democratic ward election — and may have violated party rules ebx.sh/uNvQaK
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Pennsylvania Maps retweeted
May 25
The 2026 PA-03rd Congressional Democratic Primary, a contest between DSA Representative Chris Rabb, Former Dem Senate Leader Sharif Street, and Pediatric Surgeon Ala Stanford resulted in a strong 15% win for Rep. Rabb, besting both major moderate candidates.
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Last week in #PA07, Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association President Bob Brooks was able to win the Democratic primary for this ultra-competitive district.
He won with 41% of the vote over three other candidates who had scattered support throughout the district.
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May 24
The kind of structural transformation Rabb is talking about might not happen this year, but it’s coming sooner than later. I don’t think folks have reckoned with how much influence Rabb will have in Philadelphia politics by 2030.
May 23
Bob Brady and Philly’s Democratic machine are facing a reckoning.
Philly deserves better than the same broken politics failing working families.
It’s time for new leadership. We proved you can build a truly people-powered movement. This is the future Democrats must embrace.
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May 24
In Larry Krasner’s first primary win in 2017, Black voters were lukewarm on his candidacy. But once he got into office and started delivering, they became his strongest base of support.
It was a competitive race this time, but going forward I expect Rabb to sail to re-election.
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May 24
Evans was pretty laid back when it came to engaging in Philadelphia politics, but clearly that will not be Rabb’s approach. He will use the bully pulpit of his Congressional seat to push for responsiveness and competence in the party, and they won’t be able to ignore him.
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In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, longtime Democratic incumbent Greg Vitali lost his #HD166 to Judy Trombetta.
Running on a platform of generational change and being backed by the Delaware County Democrats (over the 30 year incumbent), Trombetta destroyed Vitali by 23 points.
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May 21
A factoid that will blow some minds -
PA-03 results with white-majority wards EXCLUDED:
🥇 Chris Rabb - 34,647 - 36.80%
🥈 Sharif Street - 33,220 - 35.29%
🥉 Ala Stanford - 24,437 - 25.96%
ALT Map of PA-03 including only majority-minority wards
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May 21
Please do not do ecological fallacy with this! We have no way of knowing how any individual demographic voted
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Pennsylvania Maps retweeted
May 21
Larry Krasner just posted a two minute video outside of the Philadelphia Democratic Committee HQ and called for the resignation of Bob Brady, who's been chair of the Philly Dems for 40 years.
Krasner called on Brady to follow Biden's footsteps and step aside.
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May 20
Republicans are not contesting this district, 2024's closest in a chamber with a one-seat Dem majority
Tells you everything you need to know about expectations for November
20 Nov 2024
🧵 on the decisive House District 172:
A New Kind of Pennsylvania Battleground (1/11)
ALT Precinct maps of the State House and Presidential vote in PA HD-172 Sean Dougherty (D) 51.0% Aizaz Gill (R) 49.0% Kamala Harris (D) 49.6% Donald Trump (R) 50.4%
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May 20
So what happened? Street won West Philly, but Rabb won Center City by even more. Meanwhile, Stanford held up pretty well, limiting Street's margin in his best wards. And progressive wards posted huge margins for Rabb.
May 19
If either Center City or West Philly votes decisively for Street, that should be enough to win him the election. But if Rabb fights to a draw or close to it in both areas, I expect him to be headed to Congress.
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May 20
Case in point, Street broke 60% in just one ward, the tiny 16th. Rabb broke 60% in six wards.
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Pennsylvania Maps retweeted
May 20
It may be occurring to people now how much more sophisticated, strategic and powerful the Philly organizing Left has become since 2023.
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Pennsylvania Maps retweeted
May 20
Looks like a change is coming in HD-195 #PoliticsPA
73 of 89 divisions reporting (82%)
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May 20
Here's an example of where Rabb is beating expectations. With 13/14 precincts reporting, Rabb is winning the majority-Black 47th ward, which is within Street's Senate district.
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May 20
Rabb wins the 60th ward (West Philly) with all precincts in. This is what a big Rabb win looks like.
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Pennsylvania Maps retweeted
May 20
It's over. Chris Rabb wins the PA-03 Dem primary in a stunning finisher with 43% of the vote w/ almost all divisions in. He'll probably win by 15 when all is said and done.
Not even close. He massively overperformed in Street's turf with this last big drop.
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