To all generalists, time for part 5 of the ‘biotech outperformance train’ series and the first one of 2026. I personally think there is an incredible opportunity still in our sector , but you’re gonna have to be slight more selective. Before I dive into that let’s start off with returns since this series started : 07/28/25
$spy 8.5%
$qqq 9.75%
$iwm 19%
$xbi 49%!!
$bbc 95.7%!!!!
Looking back, wow we’ve been on an incredible run. But is the run over? Do we need to step back here? Personally, I don’t think so. I think whilst we may have some pull backs , history and broader market conditions seem to suggest that the bull market should continue for at least some time. What I will say is , and this is very important, as it stands , the good biotechs are still not expensive by any means but the bad biotechs are now starting to get expensive. Not too expensive yet but getting close to those levels. So you’re at that juncture where if you’re still net long or long only then it’s a good time to be also letting the short book in on the action a little more.
Good biotech examples:
$abvx $cogt $lqda $celc $tern … and more
Bad biotech examples:
$sana $ntla $abcl $inbx $glto $ibrx and more
I also think M&A valuations / premiums however way you frame it, may need a reset. We thought that happened after
$mtsr and
$cdtx but the
$rvmd news and the broader slow down in deal news in January tells me that BP has decided to reel it in for a bit and not fall into the silly multiple trap as they did in 2020 as well. But thing is 2020 circumstances were a lot different imo and all it’ll take is 1-2 moves from BP and that reset will start to get normalised again. Also there’s not that many good companies out there in hindsight , so it’s one of those situations for BP , game theory 101.
And that’s probably why I think it’s time to short on valuation once again (accounting for the valuation reset across the board, so going after only the super stretched valuations) and stay long or be more aggressive in buying biotechs that are executing well.