The key question is how long it will take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and for shipping to resume safely. Much depends on whether shipowners feel confident enough to transit through the route again. Before the Iran conflict began, there was already excess crude supply in the market, which helped soften the initial economic impact of the crisis. However, it will still take time for production wells to be reopened, for damage to be properly assessed, and to determine how much output can realistically return in the short term: Masha Kotkin, US-based geopolitical analyst
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