While I don't think the Strait of Hormuz crisis is "over," with (the latest) deal announcement and today's SpaceX IPO, it seems a good day for a retrospective on this, which has obviously been wrong, at least so far.
1) Inventories and inventory releases: I underestimated both how high global inventories were before the war and also how quickly global reserves would be released. Not only did we start 2026 with very high global inventories (notable, many current oil bulls were bearish pre-war, e.g. Rory Johnston), but The United States, Japan, China, and many more have released hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves. This has helped 'bridge the gap' between the closure and a potential reopening.
2) Le Chatelier effects: whether it was pipelines that had been previously built to route Gulf oil away from Hormuz, the rise of the US petroleum and natural gas industries, or actions by various countries to begin demand destruction, the global energy market has shown much more resilience than I expected. Humanity has succeeded because of our ability to adapt and here, we've done it yet again.
3) The AI capex boom: It was often lamented how large cap companies were purely rewarding shareholders with capital returns, but now, because of the AI infrastructure buildout, they've turned to injecting literally nearly a trillion of dollars into the real economy. The hyperscalers alone are spending hundreds of billions on capex that is flowing from everyone to peripheral technology companies (Cisco, Marvel, Corning, etc.), infrastructure players (Caterpillar, etc.), to laborers (electricians, etc.). Moreover, the wealth effect from the boom in the associated stock prices seems to be real, helping to fuel consumer spending, at least in the upper part of the "K-shaped" economy.
4) The American consumer and psychological shifts: Though inflation is increasing, we may be at the start of a critical psychological shift. The first inflation wave of ~2022 was new; consumers pulled back, "transitory" made some sense, etc. But now that we're seeing a second wave, perhaps the American consumer is just going "all in," accepting that the economy is going to run hot. Consider the rise of the 'gambling/risk' mentality that has so often been written about combined with the rise in the stock market and AI boom is giving people more chips to play. "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen." It seems Americans are indeed standing the heat.
Now, as I've alluded to in the opening segment, I don't think this crisis is over. Even if the Strait opens immediately, it will take time to get the petroleum products flowing. This will be compounded by the fact that global inventories will have to be refilled while damaged energy infrastructure has to be rebuilt. I believe that this will keep physical energy prices 'much higher for much longer' than pre-war levels. This will continue to place proverbial sand in the engine of the gears of the global economy, as energy prices are an input into everything, feeding into global inflation which central banks will have to respond to with interest rate hikes.
How resilient will the global economy continue to be in the face of this? I would be lying if I said that I wasn't slightly-to-moderately bearish, but hey, I've been wrong before, see the quoted tweet.
Apparently, the Spice didn't need to flow (at least as much, at least for now).
Feels like I'm living in the Twilight Zone.
If the Strait isn't opened within two or three weeks, a global depression is coming.
Petroleum enables modern life. The Spice must flow.