This chronic lack of resolve, leadership, and strategic vision will bury the free world.
Systemic fear of responsibility and historical decisions, trying to hold on to the comfort zone as hard as possible — this is why we are where we are now. And the free world is at its weakest throughout the entire post-1991 era.
That's the endless procrastination, security escapism, and over-compromising at any cost (upon someone else).
It's painful to realize that in February 2022, much of the Western decision-making elite was generally ready to come to terms with Russia's complete takeover of Ukraine, which seemed hardly preventable. But a lot of things on the Russian side suddenly went very wrong.
Ukraine unexpectedly (for some) prevailed at the Battle of Kyiv and effectively derailed the central axis of Russia's blitzkrieg.
The 'special military operation' failed, and Russia's full-scale, protracted war on Ukraine followed. And as you know, the entire history of the war is Ukraine and its friends beating their heads against the wall of the 'don't-provoke-Putin' attitude.
Again and again. It started working only as late as springtime and summertime 2022, when the Battle of Donbas was at its horrific peak and when it became apparent that Russia was not stopping and Ukraine was not going down just like that.
First, it's tank killers, then artillery, then armored vehicles, radars, ammo, rocket systems, radars, tanks, air & missile defense, now it's F-16. And with every single weapon and hardware class and type, there has been generally the very same scheme:
1. "Ukraine will never get X and Y, that's a major escalation, that's too complicated and too expensive for Ukraine to use"
2. Months-long deliberations, denial, and discussions
3. Ukraine eventually ends up getting X and Y many months late and demonstrates outstanding results on battlefields
4. Russian 'red lines' end up being empty threats, and Russia's military gets a painful punch in the gut
5. *repeat with another weapon*
Do I need to tell the story of a handful of HIMARS systems that effectively derailed Russia's frontline logistics and its late summer 2022 campaign? Do I need to remind anyone how long Ukraine was denied getting MIM-104 Patriot systems that are now demonstrating the most excellent results in their entire operational history?
Again and again, with every weapon type and class that Ukraine asked for, there was the need to break through the obsession with "escalation management" (that was again and again proven totally inconsistent) and move forward.
With all due respect to President Biden (who has done a lot for Ukraine!), when POTUS spends more than a year saying no and then eventually gives up to the green light on European F-16s for Ukraine and authorizes the transfer of just 20 outdated ATACMS missiles (that nonetheless immediately wipe out key Russian airfields) - that doesn't look like a way to resolve the problem.
And that's in the middle of the worst European war since Adolf Hitler in which Ukraine defends itself against one of the world's biggest military powers with one of the world's biggest military budgets.
Things have gone pretty absurd by now.
As a result of Ukraine's successful campaigns in 2022, we all were too quick to optimistically declare that "Putin has already lost," that what needed to be done had been done, and that the worst European war since Adolf Hitler would somehow go away.
In reality, endless deliberations and obsessive 5D chess to save Putin's ass from falling entirely into Chinese hands effectively saved the Kremlin from a proper and resolute military defeat in Ukraine that could have disabled the Kremlin from new acts of aggression for decades to come.
Putin was given almost two years to recover from his disastrous early failure. The Kremlin rebooted its economy, adapted it to international sanctions, found new markets to sell gas and oil on, relaunched its military production industry, and made an alliance with Iran and North Korea to get drones, missiles, and ammo and replenish its emptied Soviet stocks. And you know what?
They ended up being very fine with this war. Russian people, being what it is, are silent or widely supportive. The poor and destitute are happy to kill Ukrainians and die for an equivalent of a U.S. blue-collar salary.
The rich and powerful are now having a cut in the giant black hole of budget spending that any war is, and entire Russian industries are thriving thanks to a massive war. Nobody gives a shit about Russia's insane loss of life not seen since World War II.
From the Western side, we have a historically unique situation. Not a single American or European soldier now has to die in the worst European war since Adolf Hitler. Western defense industries have prospects for gargantuan, long-term contracts to support Ukraine in war and its subsequent post-war defense development.
Ukraine, having as little as it has, demonstrates outstanding battlefield results thanks to the exceptional heroism and dedication of its military. Ukraine asks for money and arms to deal with the greatest European security threat of the 21st century all alone.
But no, the free world keeps impeding itself and fearing getting out of its long-ingrained comfort zone.
And yeah - while the West is just dreaming of getting back to normal, Russia's propaganda meta-world is having a full-scale war on the entire West. Try and watch Russian TV for five minutes if you don't trust me.
The Kremlin has recovered from the initial shock of the early setback in Ukraine and has made this "civilization war with the West" a cornerstone of its ideology. It's now their foremost instrument of holding power over Russia.
They're not landing on the Moon, or building a quantum computer, or making Russia home to the world's top five universities. They've been investing billions for decades to propagate hatred, revanchism, Soviet Stalinism, domination, and territorial expansion based on "taking what's ours."
Poor, destitute, and revenge-seeking, Russia gets back to the state of the besieged fortress of Eurasia that will always be at war with Oceania. They need triumphant victories over the heinous West that owes it everything, they need "new territories" (even in the form of senselessly desolated cities turned into mass graves, you know).
They need war as such.
So of course, why would Moscow want a real 'ceasefire' and 'peace' in Ukraine at the present status quo — if they obviously see that they can intimidate and wear out the West into giving up on Ukraine completely?
As
@FRHoffmann1 very correctly points out, Russia's main conclusion behind this war is that the West is critically short of resolve.
The Kremlin quite expectedly sees weakness in this endless drama over the Ukraine aid. That's a pleasant invitation for more aggression because this works. What they've seen and are seeing makes them believe NATO will very likely back off first for the sake of a short-living illusion of its peace of mind and safety.
And yeah, they basically don't even need to reinstate their military power decimated by Ukraine — seeing how weak the West may be, they know that nuclear threats and blackmailing may work.
And yeah, again, there will be a lot of galaxy brans yelling "Send not a single rifle round to Tallinn/Riga/Vilnius/Chishinau/Helsinki/Warsaw and roll back to 1997/1989/1945/1913 for peace!!"
This reminds me of a situation in which a sick person continuously ignores his or her increasingly dangerous symptoms. Until he or she just can't anymore. Or until it's too late.
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