Follow me on @prometheuscht too.

Joined June 2013
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1 Jan 2025
Encouraging you to follow my current handle: @prometheuscht The Consilience blog handle: @Consiliency This handle will cover my new project which will launch in due course.
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Pumped up a brand new Gilbert. It feels great to have one back in my mits. Sadly, it looks like I support the poms now. cc: @BornDwnUndr @pmje73
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*The Exnaturalist Fallacy* is the error of removing humans from nature in order to condemn human intervention as unnatural, while leaving every non-human organism inside nature so that its actions are treated as ecologically legitimate.
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The opposite to all ideology is openness to criticism, it is independent thought and intellectual and moral autonomy. In other words, it is the self taking responsibility for its brain.
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As Popper would say!
The opposite to all ideology is openness to criticism, it is independent thought and intellectual and moral autonomy. In other words, it is the self taking responsibility for its brain.
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Locked and loaded. #watchthisspace
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$CBG - The FCA letter is brutal. While Close Brothers defies logic & insists a ยฃ320m provision is adequate, @TheFCA says it's aware of our reports regarding the [in]adequacy of Close's provisioning & disclosures. Confirming they will engage auditors directly...1/2
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Replying to @TheFCA
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Replying to @aziz0nomics
Jihadists don't care about the material betterment of Muslims in this world... They have other-worldly aspirations, which require this-worldly destruction.
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Oh my goodness!!! The British police might not have a duty of care, but the bystanders who sold them lies must be held responsible too.
The murder of Henry Nowak is just objectively 10 million times worse than what happened to George Floyd.
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Jim Leitner used to counsel that we "listen to the gamemaster" back in the day... Albeit, the protagonist has changed from the Fed in this case. @LeitnerJim
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I really have to get better at buying whatever the President of the United States says to buy.
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Indeed. Your use of an LLM is a real-time experiment with a kind of conjecture engine, you must treat all of its output as provisional, demanding more inquiry, requiring more rational scrutiny and seeking further comparison with empirical reality.
Chatbots are poor sources of truth but excellent sources of inspiration. They offer ideas, not answers. Like Croesus misconstruing the Pythia, itโ€™s not the chatbots that hallucinate, but us, whenever we mistake the possibilities they offer for certainties.
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Great to see that FinTwit's resident equity vol maestro @Ksidiii has been crushing it!
1/ Most tail-risk funds bleed slowlyโ€ฆ Until they donโ€™t. Ambrus Capital turned volatility spikes into 25% in a single month and over 50% net in two years. ๐Ÿงต
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This process that we are but a small part of appears to be awfully indifferent to human suffering, remaining wholly unconcerned with justice or fairness, and completely unmoved by regard for individual human stories... Yet, for the most part, we insist it is otherwise.
A lovely young woman with terminal cancer (due to VHL) decided yesterday to discontinue her chemotherapy due to the ghastly side effects she must face simply to extend her lifespan for a little while longer. In defiance of the inevitable, she's going to have a gathering in her hospital room with her friends and family for her last day, before turning off the ventilator to give herself the ultimate respite on her own terms. This thing we call nature is inexplicably cruel, dispensing a sort of cosmic caprice that is universally unprejudiced in its rationing of suffering... It is so neutral, it seems cold and heartless, not unlike a rusty, serrated knife twisted through the ribcage.
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When you hear someone say "Nuuk, Greenland".
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Revolutionary socialism's central assumptions are a kind of historicism. That the world is fixed, with the inevitable outcome that the downtrodden and disenfranchised are predestined to suffer, unless a saviour comes along with enough compassion and courage to liberate them from their hopeless condition. It almost sounds biblical in a way. Alas, like a lot of mythology, it is pseudoscience, immunised from criticism, impervious to empirical refutation, blind and deaf when faced with any rational reason to the contrary.
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Eschatological judgement days are a kind of historicism. "... the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward... the Day of Judgment... a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion. In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome."
My latest The IRGC's Eschatological Gamble and the Arab World's Verdict How the Arab World Reads the IRGC In a certain sense, the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward, always, is Qiyamah, the Day of Judgment. For Khomeini, Karbala and Qiyamah formed a single continuous arc, a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion. In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome. A normal Western politician carefully weighs risks and adapts to changing circumstances. But the true committed IRGC revolutionary, driven by this unshakable faith, inhabits an entirely different relationship with time. For him, the final victory is already secured. The present does not create the future, and merely confirms what was always destined to occur. But this orientation collides at every point with the mainstream Sunni worldview, which treats Judgment Day as a matter of divine concealment rather than political schedule. Sunni tradition forbids the forcing of providence and regards any state organized around accelerating the end of history as a deviation from Islam rather than its fulfillment. The Arab world reads the IRGC through this very lens, and what it sees is not a pious republic being tested, but a heterodox project masquerading as the fulfillment of faith, structurally incapable of assessing its strategic failures. zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-โ€ฆ
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Regarding my criticism of Islamism, let me accurately explain what I oppose using Max Weber's sociological framework. I have no issue with an *inner-worldly* ascetism, where people determine their *this-worldly* personal conduct freely, as they so please, according to their faithful religious beliefs... That only becomes an issue where that conduct trespasses on others freedoms, since it violates the principle of pluralism. Hence, I oppose when that other-worldly supernaturalism and superstition encourages *outer-wordly* aspirations for a theocratic programme โ€” this, is what Islamism is, and it warrants criticism.
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Come hell or highwatermark #hedgefundidioms
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The back and forth alluded to here is the process of *conjectures and refutations*. This is the logic of scientific discovery, a la Popper. However, there is a misunderstanding in the interpretation, which is that theorising about a problem is what enables the preselection of data which might shed some light on it. Accordingly, the very act of looking is guided by our prior assumptions. Ultimately, there is no such thing as pre-theoretical data, because, in practice, the data are theory-impregnated.
There's a strange myth about science: that theory comes first, and that data cannot show anything new. But anyone who's ever done science knows the truth that there's a long conversation between data & hypotheses. Back & forth.. until the discovery. And if you think about it, it has to be this way! (Night Science recap, Day 6)
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The flotilla crew is suffering a bad case of neo-puritanism, and maybe the clap.
Update from the Gaza flotilla: activists are furious that a senior organising member of the Steering Committee is having sex with people on the boats โ€œTo have sex on the boat - while heading to a nation undergoing genocide - is a clear violation of ethics and powerโ€ Lmfao
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